The Secrets of Slippage
by Barry Rosen
How many times have you placed your stop at a key Fibonacci retracement target
and gotten hit by the locals and stopped out? With everyone using Fibonacci numbers, you
have to be one step ahead to win the race. Here are some tips. Fibonacci numbers work
because crowdsincluding crowds of numbersare dynamic systems that conform to
mathematical laws. If you have ever been to the Museum of Science and Industry in Chicago,
you may have seen the machine there that sorts balls randomly into eight slots and at the
end of the run, the balls form a bell curve. Likewise, the Fibonacci numbers of .362,
.500, .618, 1.618 and 2.168 etc., create important, predictable price valueseven in
the wild chaos of 400,000 T-Bond contracts traded daily in the pits. A bull market is
likely to have a minimum retracement of .236 or .382, and if you are looking to get in an
entry from the top that will get you filled, then a safe, tight stop may be the only
slippage factor below the 38% retracement. Knowing Elliott Wave principles can also aid
you in choosing the proper stop, and we would recommend the basic Elliott Wave books to
guide you in that area. On double tops and bottoms, locals will usually pickoff a
stop 1 or 2 ticks above or below the market, but a real breakout or breakdown will be
occurring if the market goes through slippage. While each market has its own behavior
patterns, the following slippage numbers can keep you out of trouble and prevent the
locals from gunning you down. The following list shows the slippage factor for the most
actively traded commodities: