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Commentary

Most of the newsletters and news headlines on popular websites are still proclaiming doom and gloom. Many of them were declaring Friday another huge down day. I don't quite see it that way.

To me, Friday Sept 27 was a Type II day, meaning that it has one leg up and one leg down (or vice versa). I classify a Type II move as one that looks like a V or and upside down V-- up and then down, or down and then up. The open on Friday was right at the close from Thursday (21.60 - 21.55). Over the next hour the QQQs climbed quickly a healthy 0.66, to a high of 22.21. That's almost as much as the current and near-past Average True Range. So, almost a full day's work in an hour. Then, at 7:45aPT, the market made an about-face and dropped for the rest of the day, to close at 21.31. The end result is that the market was down 0.24 points from the previous day's close. But, it was a dramatic up, followed by a dramatic down that made for quotes like "ugly market" from the pundits.

Our daily QQQ model is still short, from 9/3/02 at 22.50, for an open trade of $5,950 currently.

None of our stock picks from last weekend were triggered, so our only "open trade" is the short on the QQQ model, with a very nice profit for the week.

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QQQ

Reading the daily QQQ chart, Friday was kind of a nothing day. Even though many of the other market pundits and columnists head their columns things like "Stocks to Fall as Chill Sets In," I don't read the daily chart quite that same way.

Volume receded slightly on Friday and the day's action formed an Inside Bar. Inside Bars are usually read as turnarounds or pivots, or indecision points. That's the way it looks to me. The Average True Range is still diminishing, which speaks to a big move coming, but we can only guess which direction and when.

While we are still in the lower half of the Bollinger Bands, we didn't get as low as the lower band. In fact, we held above it nicely, even in a dramatic see-saw day. The RSI is still playing with a slightly up-sloping trendline and is just under 40 (bearish) at 38.97.

Our daily model is still holding short, so that's where we are staying for now.

For the IntraDay Traders, our 15-minute model has whipsawed us back into a short position, which occurred at 11:15aPT on Friday. RSI on the 15-min chart is moving downward with a down-sloping trendline and ATR is still diminishing.

There is an sjhAttractor at 21.24, so we will probably at least touch that on Monday morning. And, the sjhAttractor above is at 22.44. I think we will probably touch that price as well, for another jerky kind of trading day.

"The Sunny Side of the Street"

Commentary

QQQ

Weekend Stock Alerts

This week's Sunny Side of the Street Weekend Stock Alerts:

NAVIGATION: