"The Sunny Side of the Street"

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NAVIGATION:

CHART OVERVIEW:  for the real scoop, visit Yahoo Finance

Chart
1 Day		 Chart
5 Days		 Chart
1 Year

Commentary

THURSDAY NIGHT--OCT 31, 2002:

We had two great back to back trading days--and today was the market's day off.  Today was a "do-nothing" day.  We were long coming into the markets from the 29th, and long we stayed all day.  

More about the intraday picture for the Platinum Members later on.

Welcome to a new group of traders:  Rydex switchers.  We are going to keep track of some new charts and try to offer instructional reading on the Technical signs we see there.  The commentary for the Rydex switchers will only be available under the Platinum Membership section, with your passwords.

INDU - DOW JONES INDUSTRIALS

LONG-TERM:  (1-3 MONTHS OR LONGER; reading the monthly chart) 
Long-term we are still in a downtrend.  From the top in the Dow the week of 1/31/2000, we have gone steadily grinding down the typical Bear Market path.  People keep hoping that Greenspan has it under control and that the crash of '87 behavior is still possible, giving us a sudden recovery.  I don't think so.  Neither do I think we are plunging into the abyss.  There is an Attractor at 7232 on the monthly Dow chart that, so far, has held nicely.  The bears are saying it is the formation of a Head-and-Shoulders that will take us on down another 300-400 points, but I don't think so.
 
INTERMEDIATE-TERM: (1-3 WEEKS; reading the weekly chart)

Possibly the most watched indicators by the long-term traders is the crossover of the 50-day with the 200-day moving averages.  We are beginning to show positive signs as the Dow is now holding above the 50-day moving average.  As the average turns upward and heads for the 200-day average we will get more excited.  But for now, the long-term trend is still downward.  The Linear Regression line for the last 30 days is showing positive signs as well, as it is sloping upward.  I'm not ready to say that we are ready for another bull run, but at least it seems that recovery is still in sight.  Don't jump the gun and think I said we are headed up, because until proven otherwise this is still a bear market.

SHORT-TERM: (1-3 DAYS; reading the daily and 15-minute chart)

We have a heavy Attractor at 8455, pushing and pulling on the market.  At the moment the Attractor is pulling the Dow upward to it.  As soon as price gets there, it will have to make the auction decision--are we willing to pay more, or shall we let it go for this price.

The linear regression angle for the past 3 days on the 15-minute chart is at a nice upward slope and I have a feeling that the market just might make the run up to stay with the up-angle this time around.

RSI has not really shown any weakness and is positioned to move upward tomorrow.  Price spent most of today under the Sunny_Band midline, and it is decision time.  The  short-term S&P futures gave a sell signal at the close, so we might just be in for a corrective day tomorrow, but it's too soon to tell.
I'm holding QQQs long overnight, because that's what the system said to do.

QQQ - NASDAQ TRUST

CHART OVERVIEW:  for the real scoop, visit Yahoo Finance


1 Day		 Chart
5 Days		 Chart
1 Year

LONG-TERM:  (1-3 MONTHS OR LONGER; reading the monthly chart)

We have two Attractors pulling the pillaged NASDAQ upward:  first stop at 918; second stop at 1139.  It still looks to me like we are putting in a base and the market may even put in a whole year of sideways action.  If that's the case, it's better to step your trading down to a faster timeframe--if you have the time to watch the market.  If not, it's better to find a professional money manager, if you can find one you trust.

INTERMEDIATE-TERM: (1-3 WEEKS; reading the weekly chart)

The QQQs are holding firmly above the sjh_DMA midline in the Sunny Bands.  That's a good sign.  Still, we've been creeping along a fairly sideways channel, so I'm getting ready for a breakout.  Upside?  Downside?  Be ready either way.  If it breaks below 22.22 I'll go short; if it continues to move upward I'll stay long.

SHORT-TERM: (1-3 DAYS; reading the daily and intraday charts)

We are continuing to hold steadfastly above the Attractor at 24.44 on the intraday chart.  Good sign! The next Attractor overhead is at 24.90, and we need to put up or shutup and make a run for that Attractor.  Else, we should fall below the 24.44 and put in the case for shorting, maybe even as far down as the 23.60 Attractor.

S&P 500 SPooS

LONG-TERM:  (1-3 MONTHS OR LONGER; reading the monthly chart)
We have been in a long-term down trend since March--big surprise.  But it has now been violated and we stand the chance of starting a new uptrend.  So far the picture has been of a grim, indecisive wedge playing between the downtrend line and the upper Attractor which lies at 898.  If we break solidly above 898 we should see big Mutual Fund money start coming into the picture, and that's when we want to play along, following the big boys.
SHORT-TERM: (1-3 DAYS; reading the daily and intraday charts)

On a sideways channel formation of the SPoos we got a sell signal at the end of the day--on the last bar.  Ok, tomorrow could have a huge gap down and I'll miss it, but I don't think it's strong enough to break through the Attractor at 872.44.  The fact that we have been going sideways for some time shows strength to me in an overall downtrend.  It means we are testing the waters for any excuse to go up.

Weekend Stock Alerts

Click Here to go to the Weekend Stock Alerts Archives to view prior weeks' performance.

This week's (10/28/02) Sunny Side of the Street Weekend Stock Alerts:

  Symbol BreakOut Run To Stop Loss Triggered? Goal Met? or Friday Close Net P/L 1000 shares
1 COST 36.75 38.5 35.75        
2 QCOM 37.28 40 35.36        
3 ABS 27 29.39 26.00 27.42      
4 TRMS 51.69 57 49.72 51.69      
5 KFY 9.5 11 9.00        
6 EBAY 63.27 69 61.35        
7 BAC 70.70 72.70 69.56        
8 FCGI 6.40 8 6        
9 ABM 14.50 16 14        
10 AAPL 15.52 17 14.87 15.52      
        TOTAL  

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