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"The Sunny Side of the Street"

TUESDAY NIGHT--11/19/2002:


qqq_w_20021119.jpg (111503 bytes)
symbol prev close upper Attractor lower Attractor
INDU 8477.73 9000 8450
QQQ 25.51 26.89 20.60
SPz02 897.80 925.62 875
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  The market today behaved exactly as I thought in yesterday's commentary.  Once again, the Dow ended the day only 11.79 points down, so if you catch that number in the nightly news you think it was a mild day.  But, from a trading perspective, it was a pretty violent day with wild swings following an opening gap down.

With each swing the QQQs hit one of the Attractors and bounced off, first up then down, then up again.

The weekly chart, above, still shows the Attractor at 26.89 on the QQQs holding down any further upward movement.  On the Dow, the relative Attractor is at 8450, and is now acting as Support, holding the Dow up, rather than pushing it down.  The S&P is caught right in the middle of its two attractors (926 above and 875 below).  

INDU_D_20021119.JPG (163805 bytes)

These Technicals, and the double, overlapping cycle I keep talking about make this a very difficult market to trade at the moment.  Its gyrations are too fast, turning on a dime, for the average trader to manage.  My suggestion would be to stay on the sidelines momentarily.  This is hurricane weather.

INVESTORS

The markets are at a critical juncture.  Jumping the gun and trying to outsmart the market right now is very risky.  Each of the markets I watch is sitting right on the major Attractor, which is at best precarious.  We could just as easily go down as up.

My monthly model is in a sell position, my weekly model is in a sell position, the daily model, however, is in buy position.  If price comes down and drops through my Dynamic Moving Average (sjh_DMA) then all bets are off and I'll go into sell mode.  I'm even skeptical about holding the long position any further, at this time, until the market shows its hand one way or the other, by going up above the Attractor, or down below it--telling us whether to be long or short.  If the QQQs can't make it through 26.89,  that's bad news.        

TRADERS

If you insist on trading, make it fast and for short time duration runs.  As one of my private students said to me tonight over the phone, we just want singles and doubles, we're not looking for home runs.  Don't forget this: $400/day profit equals $100,000 per year. And, $4,000/day profit is a million dollars a year.  Take your time, follow a plan, and don't get emotional.

                                                                                                        

 

Weekly Stock Picks for the week beginning 11/18/2002:

symbol breakout stop loss goal close if triggered?     profit/
loss
QCOM 37.15 32.55 43.30    
PCAR 46.26 44.69 48.00    
SNPS 50.00 47.35 54.00    
ERTS 67.00 68.50 66.30    
IBM 81.00 79.00 83.50    
SANM 3.45 3.19 3.75    
JDSU 2.80 2.64 3.00    
RNWK 3.80 3.61 4.00    
DISH 19.45 19.00 20.28    
WEN 28.18 27.67 28.74    
TOTAL    

 

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Statistics, tables, charts and other information on trading system monthly performance is hypothetical unless otherwise specified, and is based on the referenced systems hypothetical monthly performance as it would be executed through TradeStation Securities if per the contract/account balance and other specifications noted in the performance tables. Actual dollar and percentage gains/losses experienced by investors would depend on many factors not accounted for in these hypothetical statistics, including, but not limited to, starting account balances, market behavior, incidence of split fills and other variations in order execution, and the duration and extent of individual investor participation in the specified system. Fees, commissions, and other expenses are not accounted for herein, and will affect investors net results in actual trading. While the information and statistics given are believed to be complete and accurate, given the hypothetical specifications, we cannot guarantee their completeness or accuracy. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED FOR EDUCATIONAL/ INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. These results are not indicative of, and have no bearing on, any individual results that may be attained by the trading system in the future. PAST OR HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT TRADING RESULTS.

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