NAVIGATION:
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"The Sunny Side of the Street" |
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TUESDAY NIGHT--11/19/2002:
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The market today behaved exactly as I thought in
yesterday's commentary. Once again, the Dow ended the day only 11.79
points down, so if you catch that number in the nightly news you think it
was a mild day. But, from a trading perspective, it was a pretty
violent day with wild swings following an opening gap down.
With each swing the QQQs hit one of the Attractors and bounced off, first up then down, then up again. The weekly chart, above, still shows the Attractor at 26.89 on the QQQs holding down any further upward movement. On the Dow, the relative Attractor is at 8450, and is now acting as Support, holding the Dow up, rather than pushing it down. The S&P is caught right in the middle of its two attractors (926 above and 875 below). These Technicals, and the double, overlapping cycle I keep talking about make this a very difficult market to trade at the moment. Its gyrations are too fast, turning on a dime, for the average trader to manage. My suggestion would be to stay on the sidelines momentarily. This is hurricane weather. INVESTORS The markets are at a critical juncture. Jumping the gun and trying to outsmart the market right now is very risky. Each of the markets I watch is sitting right on the major Attractor, which is at best precarious. We could just as easily go down as up. My monthly model is in a sell position, my weekly model is in a sell position, the daily model, however, is in buy position. If price comes down and drops through my Dynamic Moving Average (sjh_DMA) then all bets are off and I'll go into sell mode. I'm even skeptical about holding the long position any further, at this time, until the market shows its hand one way or the other, by going up above the Attractor, or down below it--telling us whether to be long or short. If the QQQs can't make it through 26.89, that's bad news. TRADERS If you insist on trading, make it fast and for short time duration runs. As one of my private students said to me tonight over the phone, we just want singles and doubles, we're not looking for home runs. Don't forget this: $400/day profit equals $100,000 per year. And, $4,000/day profit is a million dollars a year. Take your time, follow a plan, and don't get emotional.
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Weekly Stock Picks for the week beginning 11/18/2002:
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system monthly performance is hypothetical unless otherwise specified, and is
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OF FUTURE RESULTS. |