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"The Sunny Side of the Street"

MONDAY NIGHT--12/02/2002:

INDU_D_20021202.JPG (176865 bytes)
Figure 1

The daily Dow, Figure 1, closed just barely under the upsloping trendline I discussed yesterday.  While the Dow was down 42 points, the QQQ and S&P were both up--in as strange sort of way.

QQQ_D_20021202.JPG (144481 bytes)
Figure 2

symbol prev close upper Attractor lower Attractor
INDU 8853.86 9500 8450
QQQ 28.00 33.23 20.60
SPz02 935.30 963 875
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If you look at the candlestick on the daily charts above, it was officially a down day, with the open higher than the close.  But, the close was higher than yesterday's close, so if you look at it that way it was an up day.  That's what I mean by "strange."

The QQQs ran right for the overhead Attractor, opening on a gap at exactly 28.42. The next two 15-min bars were a continuation of the upward gap, but after that it was downward for the rest of the day.  As I said last week, the Monday after a holiday tends to reverse the effects of the low volume holiday trading.

All three indexes had narrow candle bodies (O-C), but wide candle shadows (H-L), making for a very volatile day.

The SPX, SPz02 and the INDU all close down today.  The QQQ closed slightly up.  That continues to follow my comment yesterday about the indexes not moving in tandem--it just means the small cap stocks are back in the game, while the large caps are not yet.  On the QQQs the Average True Range is beginning to increase, while on the other 3 (SPX, SPz02 and INDU) ATR is still narrowing.  On all of them RSI is staying pretty flat, and under 65.  All 4 of these indexes are in long-term buy signals on my model.

On the intraday charts it's the same picture.  The model on the QQQs is still holding long, while the other three got whipsawed today and are now short.  I chose (and I send an email to that effect) not to trade today because I though it would be a typical after-holiday whipsaw kind of day.  Tomorrow, however, is another story.

I still believe we are headed for the upper attractors on all 4 charts, though we might go through some more rough waters before getting there.  I think that the QQQs will break above the attractor at 28.42 and in doing so will carry the other three indexes up with it.  Just in case that's not the scenario, I am putting stops just below the lows of 11/26.

Many happy returns!  And, stay nimble.                 

 

Weekly Stock Picks for the week beginning 12/01/2002:

(Last week's picks made a profit of $790.  Click Here to view the picks for last week, in the Archives.)

symbol breakout stop loss goal closing price if triggered?     profit/
loss
NSOL 0.9 0.5 1.5    
COMS 5.3 5.0 6.25    
CMGI at market 1.0 3.0 yes  
ADCT 2.57 1.5 4.5    
MCLD 0.93 0.80 1.4 yes  
AMGN 48.7 43.46 54    
ALTR 15.25 13.0 20.0    
ADPT 7.44 5.16 10.00    
AAPL 16.43 15.00 18.25    
ADBE 30.4 28.9 33.23    
TOTAL  
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