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"The Sunny Side of the Street"
WEDNESDAY NIGHT--12/04/2002:
Remember: only
800 more people will ever be
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Subscribe now and get the first
three months at a discount...only $99.95/mo. Regularly $139.95/mo.From there the QQQs inched up just a bit, but then reversed and came on down, leaving me in a losing position overnight. The old adage "never take home a losing trade" comes to mind. That means, if you are in a losing position, close it out before the end of the day. I don't subscribe to that adage, however. The model is long, so I'm staying long with it.
Figure 2 - 15 minute QQQs
If you will look at the RSI in Figure 2, you can see that there is a slight positive divergence between RSI and price during that flat period during the middle of the day. I read that as encouraging for the long signal. Further, the hump on the RSI, while it didn't get up to 65, got higher than any of the humps over the past two days. I feel like the market could turn back around tomorrow morning a pop up to the 27.30 level.
On the daily chart of the QQQs we are still butting up against the September 2001 lows, and today's down move came exactly to the trendline that I drew for you yesterday. Average True Range is continuing to diminish on the 15-minute chart, as well as on the daily charts -- which, as you know, to me means a big move is impending.
The daily Dow (INDU) looks like it wants to gravitate to the mean, and get back down to the Dynamic Moving Average. That would take the Dow down to about 8600 as it stands right now. While we have positive divergence on the chart of the QQQs, we have negative divergence on the daily chart of the Dow. (See Figure 3)
Figure 3
The S&P 500 is having the same trouble moving higher as is the Dow. We're pushing up against the Sept 2001 lows and it's a fearsome opponent. (See Figure 4)
Figure 4
I think we will overcome these obstacles, but it may not happen right away. I think it might take some backing and filling first, with a scary little run down to about 877 on the SPX.
In summary, I'm holding the QQQs long overnight to see what tomorrow morning brings. If we gap down, I'll get out; if we gap up, I'll be watching for a good place to take profits.
I'll "talk" to you in the morning. Stay nimble--yoga helps.
Weekly Stock Picks for the week beginning 12/01/2002:
(Last week's picks made a profit of $790. Click Here to view the picks for last week, in the Archives.)
| symbol | breakout | stop loss | goal | closing price if triggered? |
profit/ loss |
| NSOL | 0.9 | 0.5 | 1.5 | ||
| COMS | 5.3 | 5.0 | 6.25 | ||
| CMGI | at market | 1.0 | 3.0 | yes | |
| ADCT | 2.57 | 1.5 | 4.5 | ||
| MCLD | 0.93 | 0.80 | 1.4 | yes | |
| AMGN | 48.7 | 43.46 | 54 | ||
| ALTR | 15.25 | 13.0 | 20.0 | ||
| ADPT | 7.44 | 5.16 | 10.00 | ||
| AAPL | 16.43 | 15.00 | 18.25 | ||
| ADBE | 30.4 | 28.9 | 33.23 | ||
| TOTAL | |||||
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