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"The Sunny Side of the Street"

MONDAY NIGHT--12/10/2002:

INDU_D_20021210.jpg (189679 bytes)
Figure 1 - Daily Dow

At the end of last night's commentary I said, "in summary, it looks like we have a little more retracing to do before beginning the next leg up."  And, yet if you look just at the final numbers for the day, you would say it was an up day.

symbol  close upper Attractor lower Attractor
INDU 8574.26 9500 8450
QQQ 25.62 33.23 20.60
SPz02 902.30 963 875
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  Really the day formed an inside bar, with all of today's activity contained within the range of yesterday's activity.  Another one of those "do nothing" days.  The best you could have done (with 20-20 hindsight) is to have bought on the open and sold on the close.  You would have made 10 cents per share. 

Looking at the chart of the Dow in Figure 1 above, you can also see that RSI still didn't make it above the 65 mark, and that says to me that the market is still being pulled down by the Attractors underneath.  For instance, the Dow is being pulled down by the Attractor at 8450.  The Dow's up move today was halted by the midline on the Sunny_Bands and we really didn't make any progress in either direction.

I am still expecting the corrective action to occur, to take the Dow on down to 8450, the QQQs to 20.60 and the SPoos to 875.  At the very least each of the markets should go down to touch the bottom Sunny_Band, which you can see on the enlargement of Figure 1 and 2.

QQQ_15_20021210.jpg (201634 bytes)
Figure 2

In Figure 2 you can see the trendlines that I was using to trade today's market.  Of the three downsloping lines that form a fan, the top most trendline stopped further upward movement this afternoon.  In fact, the market turned back right where the trendline and the Sunny_Bands conjunct.  

Average True Range is still contracting, as we move along sideways and build up the pressure for another spurt of directional movement.  

Notice also, on the enlargement of Figure 2, the trendline I have drawn on RSI.  It was drawn from the bottoms on 12/04 and 12/05  with "extend to the right" turned on.  It is interesting, to me at least, that RSI's upward movement was curtailed by this trendline, keeping it from rising into the 65 and beyond range.  

I think what is most likely next is still for the markets to correct down to the lower bands, and then take another surprise bounce upward.

Be quick, be nimble, and always keep your respect for the markets--it's a risky business.

 

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Weekly Stock Picks for the week beginning 12/08/2002:

(Last week's picks made a profit of $0.  Click Here to view the picks for last week, in the Archives.)

Symbol Breakout Stop Loss Goal  Close if Triggered Profit/Loss
AEP 30 26 35
APC 50 44.5 57
BK 30 27.1 35.26
GM 40 47 37
NKE 48 45 52
MDT 47.29 43.62 51.65
TOTAL
 

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CHART OVERVIEW:  for the real scoop, visit Yahoo Finance


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