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"The Sunny Side of the Street"

SUNDAY NIGHT--12/15/2002:

INDU_D_20021215.jpg (178482 bytes)
Figure 1 - Daily INDU

Friday the 13th the market finally moved the corrective move I have been expecting.  However, I don't think it's over yet.  Remembering that the front month on the S&P futures contract is now the March 03 contract, we can see...

symbol  close upper Attractor lower Attractor
INDU 8433.71 9075 8450
QQQ 24.95 33.23 20.60
SPh03 886.50 963 875
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  ... the Attractor sitting at about 855.60, which is still about 30 points down.  On the Dow, Friday's close was just underneath the Attractor that we have been watching for about a month.  It remains to be seen whether the Dow will bounce from the Attractor or go on down.  Price is also sitting right on the midline of the Sunny_Bands indicator.  Those two things in combination make me think the Dow might bounce upward for a few days, even though the QQQs are in a position to continue on lower.

SPX_D_20021215.JPG (198133 bytes)
Figure 2

The SPX is also in a position to take a bounce upward (Figure 2) as it too is sitting right on top of its most recent Attractor.

These technicals make the think that what is about to happen is for the big institutions and money managers to clean up their year-end portfolio holdings during the last few weeks of the year by dumping NASDAQ stocks and buying into the blue chips.

BRING A FRIEND AND GET 1 MONTH FOR FREE.  For each person you refer to The Sunny Side of the Street (and who subscribes) I will give you a free month on your personal subscription.  This is a word of mouth business, and I need your help to spread the word.  If you tell a friend, just email me his name/email address, and if he/she subscribes you will get the credit, and a warm welcome thanks from me.

Traders, I am short the SPY and the QQQs on the intraday charts.  Price is pushing the Sunny_Bands downward and RSI is below 40, into bearish territory.  This last 2 weeks before the end of the year can get pretty volatile with people taking time off work, vacations, and institutional window-dressing all going on, so I'm staying on my toes ready to move quickly.

Investors, my model is still long the QQQs, Dow and S&P, but using the Sunny_Bands I took profits 12/02 when price moved downward off the upper bands.  Until something changes and I either get a sell signal or a bounce above the sell out point, I'm in "do-nothing" mode.

I'LL MAKE YOU ANOTHER OFFER.  Send a friend my way for one of the upcoming seminars, and I'll give you $250 cash.  Take your loved on to a nice dinner out on me.

As I told my audience at the OUGA meeting in Los Angeles Saturday morning, I think that money and interest is moving away from stocks and into commodities.  That's one of the key questions I ask over and over, "where's the money?"  So, if that's true, and money is right now in the commodities, maybe we should take a look at some of the most liquid ones.

Just as starting observations in Technical Analysis, my model is long soybeans, short hard red winter wheat, long pork bellies, and it just went short Coffee two days ago.  Coffee has an Attractor at 54.30, so it looks like it could go a little further down.  The model is also short corn, and went long sugar at Thanksgiving.  I'll watch these charts for a while to see what happens, but that's how it looks from where I'm sitting.

If you are thinking about trading commodities, remember to look in "Stocks & Commodities" magazine at the Liquidity Table, and only pick from the top 20 or so.  You need liquidity to trade--don't buy something you can't sell.

 

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None of the stock picks from last week broke out above their "breakout" levels, so no buys were triggered.  Nothing ventured, nothing gained--and nothing lost.

Weekly Stock Picks for the week beginning 12/15/2002:

(Last week's picks made a profit of $0.  Click Here to view the picks for last week, in the Archives.)

Symbol Breakout Stop Loss Goal  Close if Triggered Profit/Loss
NSOL 0.78 0.62 1
AMCC 4.11 3.63 5.28
ADCT 2.24 1.64 2.81
ADBE 27.18 24.73 32
WIN 15.3 14.02 18
WPI 30.12 28.15 33.5
STI 60.25 56.63 68
SLE 22.77 21.56 24
RBK 28.38 27.04 30
FO 50 47.36 54
TOTAL
 

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CHART OVERVIEW:  for the real scoop, visit Yahoo Finance


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