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"The Sunny Side of the Street"

THURSDAY NIGHT--12/19/2002:

indu_d_20021219.jpg (137135 bytes)
Figure 1 - Daily Dow

From my viewpoint today was an important technical day.  The Dow broke below the lower Attractor that has been in place for over 5 months.  That Attractor was at 8450, and so now we have a new lower Attractor, down at the 8236 level.  I fear that we are beginning...

symbol  close upper Attractor lower Attractor
INDU 8364.80 9075 8236
QQQ 25.20 33.23 20.60
SPh03 884.50 963 875
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  ... to follow the down side of the double cycles, shown in Figure 1.  In doing so it is quite likely that we will see the Dow at the 8000 level again before the cycle turns up.  If that formation takes place, and if the market does follow the double cycle down, then we will likely put in a Head-and-Shoulders bottom, from which we could take a sharp bounce.  But, it will be from much lower values than we are currently seeing.

That said, I am going to be putting more weight into my short trades than into the long signals over the next month or two.  When the market gets into a bearish mode, as seen by the current RSI configuration and by the trendlines drawn over the tops in Figure 2, the long signals often don't turn out to be very profitable, but rather are just whipsaw adjustments in what turns out to be a continuing pattern down.

INDU_D_20021219B.jpg (172698 bytes)
Figure 2

Intraday today was unproductively choppy with a gap opening up which had no follow-through.  In fact, it just gapped back down and spent the remainder of the day going sideways.

qqq_15_20021219.jpg (248132 bytes)
Figure 3

In Figure 3 take a look at the pennant formation drawn by my Pennant Finder indicator.  The lower line on the pennant is pretty close to 25.00, which is where we are experiencing support and resistance (the Attractor).  Notice the magenta line I have drawn beneath the lows on the RSI indicator.  That line is in divergence with price, at the top of the chart.  This sort of divergence generally resolves with the market getting back in synch with the RSI indicator, by going up.  So, even though my longer term view is currently bearish, on the short term chart I think we can move back up to 26.20 before tumbling down again, to get in synch with the longer term chart.

This sort of conflict in indicators is one of the reasons it is so important to follow a prescribed strategy--hopefully one that has been tested and proven to have a CPC Index greater than 1.2.  When those about you are losing their heads, you will be able to hang onto yours and be firm by following your strategy.

We are not hoping to win the lottery here.  There is more of a chance of getting hit by lightning twice than in winning the lottery.  We are not hoping to hit home runs either.  My goal is simply to steadily add more in the profit pile than in the loss pile.  Over time, that's what success is made of.

As always, be cautious, be nimble, and good luck!

I'LL MAKE YOU ANOTHER OFFER.  Send a friend my way for one of the upcoming seminars, and I'll give you $250 cash.  Take your loved on to a nice dinner out on me.

 

   Don't miss it--Sunny only gives a few trading seminars each year.  She calls them "Solving the Puzzle" because she puts all the pieces together into one cohesive plan for you to become a better traderMake it your business!  View the syllabus--she only takes 15 students. January 17-19, 2003.  AND..to match Larry Williams' offer, on Friday we will be trading real-time, with real money.  I will split the winnings with the class, and if there are losses I'll keep them for myself.  Just think...the seminar could be free!

 

Weekly Stock Picks for the week beginning 12/15/2002:

(Last week's picks made a profit of $0.  Click Here to view the picks for last week, in the Archives.)

12/17/2002 -- We are getting really close to some of the breakout lines, so keep watching.  NSOL did break the line today, so the model is now long NSOL.  

Symbol Breakout Stop Loss Goal  Close if Triggered Profit/Loss
NSOL 0.78 0.62 1 yes
AMCC 4.11 3.63 5.28
ADCT 2.24 1.64 2.81
ADBE 27.18 24.73 32
WIN 15.3 14.02 18
WPI 30.12 28.15 33.5
STI 60.25 56.63 68
SLE 22.77 21.56 24
RBK 28.38 27.04 30
FO 50 47.36 54
TOTAL
 

  AND... if you are a TradeStation user, you need to attend "TradeStation Made Easy" February 7-9, 2003.  Sunny knows TradeStation and EasyLanguage as only another Trader could, and the class is more engaging and jam packed with useful information than any other class you can find, at any price.  Enroll Now--she only takes 15 students.  And, the same real-time trading offer applies.

CHART OVERVIEW:  for the real scoop, visit Yahoo Finance


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