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"The Sunny Side of the Street"

SUNDAY NIGHT--January 5, 2003

INDU_M_20030105.JPG (84414 bytes)
Figure 1 - Long Range Dow (Monthly)

The chart in Figure 1 shows the Dow Jones Industrial Average from 1965 to now.  It seems to me that the weight of the evidence points toward  ....

symbol  close upper Attractor lower Attractor
INDU 8607.52 9075 8236
QQQ 25.65 33.23 20.60
SPh03 909.9 963 875
    Remember: only 700 more people will ever be allowed to subscribe to the Platinum Zone.  The only way to get a spot after that, will be for someone else to drop out.  (That number includes free and gratis accounts to the media, etc...)  Subscribe now and get the first three months at a discount...only $99.95/mo.  Regularly $139.95/mo.
  ...a bounce as this new year begins, toward 10,000.  Traditionally, depressions are ended by wars.  The war machine creates jobs and gets the economy running again.  My marines friends, here in north county San Diego, tell me that 75% of the first Marine division was just deployed this weekend.  So, maybe that will be the answer to the direction of the markets.

TRADERS:

The QQQ short-term model is still long, but as I told you in Alerts last week I took profits and am sitting on the sidelines waiting for the market to push through resistance.  If the QQQs get above 25.70 with strength in the RSI I will probably go long again to get back in synch with the model.  Because the QQQs were weak, and because it was a holiday week, I decided last trading session to take profits on a weak showing of the RSI.

The SPX also showed holiday weakness, hitting 881.08 4 times during the week without moving on up through the resistance.  So far the formation is a W bottom, but it could become a head-and-shoulders eventually.  The 15-minute model on the SPX is long, but the most obvious place to take profits would have been 881.08.  So, for this one I'm in wait and see mode.

The 15-minute DIA still has a little room at the top, to move on up to the resistance at 86.45.  I see a complex Head-and-Shoulders in place on the 15-minute chart, so the DIA might not move up as high as that resistance for the moment.

INVESTORS:

The monthly and the weekly Dow charts show short on the model, with the daily model just now peeking above the 50-day moving average.  The 52-week high is at 10,500, about 2000 points above where we now stand.  In spite of the past week's weak showing, the Dow's daily chart is in buy mode, which I intend to ignore until price passes 8945 on the upside.  If the Dow passes 8945, especially if it is on above average volume, that would convince me that the Dow could keep going on up to the 200-day moving average.  When it passes the 200-day moving average, investors usually get excited and the market rallies for a while before retesting the average.  That scenario makes a lot of sense to me.

On the other side of the coin we have an inverted Head-and-Shoulders that never quite made it all the way into formation.  So, I've discounted that scenario in my mind, which would have called for much lower prices.

So, as always, stay nimble, humble  and take small losses and big wins.

 

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Weekly Stock Picks for the week beginning 1/5/2003:

Symbol Breakout Stop Loss Goal  Close if Triggered Profit/Loss
UNM mkt 17.49 19.11
WPI 29.5 27.44 33
AHLS 0.83 0.50 1.4
ASDS 0.46 0.37 0.6
CNXT 1.85 1.5 2.5
JDSU 2.95 2.38 3.5
LGTO 5.52 4.33 7.63
MCHP 26 24 30
PCAR 48.3 46.3 51.6
RNWK 4.06 3.5 5
TOTAL
 

  AND... if you are a TradeStation user, you need to attend "TradeStation Made Easy" February 7-9, 2003.  Sunny knows TradeStation and EasyLanguage as only another Trader could, and the class is more engaging and jam packed with useful information than any other class you can find, at any price.  Enroll Now--she only takes 15 students.  And, the same real-time trading offer applies.

CHART OVERVIEW:  for the real scoop, visit Yahoo Finance


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DISCLAIMERS:

Statistics, tables, charts and other information on trading system monthly performance is hypothetical unless otherwise specified, and is based on the referenced systems hypothetical monthly performance as it would be executed through TradeStation Securities if per the contract/account balance and other specifications noted in the performance tables. Actual dollar and percentage gains/losses experienced by investors would depend on many factors not accounted for in these hypothetical statistics, including, but not limited to, starting account balances, market behavior, incidence of split fills and other variations in order execution, and the duration and extent of individual investor participation in the specified system. Fees, commissions, and other expenses are not accounted for herein, and will affect investors net results in actual trading. While the information and statistics given are believed to be complete and accurate, given the hypothetical specifications, we cannot guarantee their completeness or accuracy. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED FOR EDUCATIONAL/ INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. These results are not indicative of, and have no bearing on, any individual results that may be attained by the trading system in the future. PAST OR HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT TRADING RESULTS.

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