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"The Sunny Side of the Street"

MONDAY NIGHT--January 6, 2003

QQQ_15_20030106.JPG (163888 bytes)
Figure 1 - Intraday chart of QQQs

In last night's commentary I said if the QQQs got above 25.70 with strength in the RSI I would probably go long again. It did do just that this morning, and I went back in long, as stated in the SSS Alert at 7:03amPT. Only an hour later I  ....

symbol  close upper Attractor lower Attractor
INDU 8770.15 9075 8236
QQQ 26.39 33.23 20.60
SPh03 927 963 875
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  ...issued an alert that I was going to follow my rule of thumb which these days is "if you see $1,000 take it."  So, rather than be greedy and risky, I took the profit after only an hour of trading.

The QQQs paused there for about 2 hours, and went on up, making it as hig as 26.59 before breaking back down to close at 26.39.  So, okay, I missed 20 cents.

TRADERS:

RSI held high all day today near the 80 range, until the end of the day on the 15-minute chart.  In fact, RSI has held nicely in the bullish zone for the past 3 trading sessions on the intraday chart.

Looking to the daily charts for more information, today's session put the INDU cleanly above the 50-day moving average.  That's good news.  The next step is to reach for the 200-day moving average and test that area for just a bit.  The Attractor at 8645 was penetrated by today's action, so I'm looking for the next stop to be 9061 on the Dow.  RSI on the daily chart needs to get out above the 60 level before I'm going to start looking for any correction.  Average True Range has been quite low during the holiday sessions, and it's now time for ATR to start making some headway as well.  Today's 171 point move brought the ATR upward to 142, but I would like to see it get back above 160.  When it gets back up in that range I will start watching again for corrections.

INVESTORS:

The Attractor at 8945 is pulling the Dow upwards now for a retest of that area.  That should happen in the next few days, and then we will see whether we can create a mad dash 3-wave on up and above the 200-day moving average.  That's the stumbling area, if we are to have one.  The Dow and the QQQ look solid enough to begin climbing the proverbial wall of worry toward the upside.  The SPX, however, seemed like the weak player today. Of note is the hammer formed in the candlestick view of today's SPX.  This pattern is often a reversal pattern, so maybe tomorrow will belong to the S&P.

So, as always, stay nimble, humble  and take small losses and big wins.

 

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Weekly Stock Picks for the week beginning 1/5/2003:

Symbol Breakout Stop Loss Goal  Close if Triggered Profit/Loss
UNM mkt 17.49 19.11
WPI 29.5 27.44 33
AHLS 0.83 0.50 1.4
ASDS 0.46 0.37 0.6
CNXT 1.85 1.5 2.5
JDSU 2.95 2.38 3.5
LGTO 5.52 4.33 7.63
MCHP 26 24 30
PCAR 48.3 46.3 51.6
RNWK 4.06 3.5 5
TOTAL
 

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CHART OVERVIEW:  for the real scoop, visit Yahoo Finance


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Statistics, tables, charts and other information on trading system monthly performance is hypothetical unless otherwise specified, and is based on the referenced systems hypothetical monthly performance as it would be executed through TradeStation Securities if per the contract/account balance and other specifications noted in the performance tables. Actual dollar and percentage gains/losses experienced by investors would depend on many factors not accounted for in these hypothetical statistics, including, but not limited to, starting account balances, market behavior, incidence of split fills and other variations in order execution, and the duration and extent of individual investor participation in the specified system. Fees, commissions, and other expenses are not accounted for herein, and will affect investors net results in actual trading. While the information and statistics given are believed to be complete and accurate, given the hypothetical specifications, we cannot guarantee their completeness or accuracy. THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED FOR EDUCATIONAL/ INFORMATIONAL PURPOSES ONLY. These results are not indicative of, and have no bearing on, any individual results that may be attained by the trading system in the future. PAST OR HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS.

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HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN; IN FACT, THERE ARE FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF FINANCIAL RISK OF ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND LOSSES OR TO ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT TRADING RESULTS.

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