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"The Sunny Side of the Street"

WEDNESDAY NIGHT--January 8, 2003

INDU_D_20030108_cycle.jpg (205370 bytes)
Figure 1 - Daily chart of INDU w cycles

Today's downward market is nicely following the double, overlapping cycles that I was watching during their up phase.... 

symbol  close upper Attractor lower Attractor
INDU 8595 9075 8236
QQQ 26.04 33.23 20.60
SPh03 910.5 963 875
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  Now the double cycle is hovering and pushing downward on the markets.  Notice also in Figure 1 that the magenta trendline sloping downward is just about to be tested by prices on the Dow.

My guess is that the Dow has to go up to hit the magenta trendline, or enough time must pass with the Dow going sideways for the two to meet.  After that happens, then we will have come to the downward phase of both cycles in tandem.  That's when the markets, namely the QQQ here, will begin another downdraft and scare out the remaining "weak hands."  I think, however, that in the upcoming downdraft that the downside will not be as low as the low in October.  I am expecting the next low to stop at about 8027 basis the Dow.

Today's drop took the Dow only back to the Attractor and the 50 day moving average, so it was an anticipated and normal sort of drop.  Nothing that should be worrisome as yet.

Intraday I sent out two alerts that I was going short.  Good calls as today was virtually a short day.  See Figure 2.

QQQ_15_20030108C.JPG (166858 bytes)
Figure 2 - Intraday QQQs

RSI weakened today, dropping off of the 60 line and moving lower into the bearish center of the channel.  To me that says that tomorrow should be a little further down than today, probably dropping into the 25.7 to 25.4 range.  After that we should take a bounce upward toward the 27.5 area.  My intraday model is short since 1/7/03 at 8:45amPT, while the long-term daily model is also short the QQQs, with resistance overhead at 26.671--against which price is currently pressing.

Like the intraday RSI, the daily RSI weakened today, reentering the bearish range, with Average True Range getting extremely low.  

So, there are two things in conflict.  Prices are pushing up against overhead resistance on the daily charts and are being pulled down by the overlapping cycles at the same time.  That's a difficult situation, which could just as easily resolve one way as the other.

LONG RANGE I am still short, or neutral, watching only for stocks that breakout of my weekend picks.

INTRADAY I will play it with my Dynamic Moving Average on the 15 minute charts and ...

... as always, stay nimble, humble  and take small losses and big wins.

 

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Weekly Stock Picks for the week beginning 1/5/2003:

Symbol Breakout Stop Loss Goal  Close if Triggered Profit/Loss
UNM mkt 17.49 19.11
WPI 29.5 27.44 33
AHLS 0.83 0.50 1.4
ASDS 0.46 0.37 0.6
CNXT 1.85 1.5 2.5
JDSU 2.95 2.38 3.5
LGTO 5.52 4.33 7.63
MCHP 26 24 30
PCAR 48.3 46.3 51.6
RNWK 4.06 3.5 5
TOTAL
 

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CHART OVERVIEW:  for the real scoop, visit Yahoo Finance


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