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"The Sunny Side of the Street"
SUNDAY NIGHT--February 2, 2003
 Figure 1 - Daily chart of $INDU Friday's action on the QQQ's took price out of the box. The QQQs closed lower than the low of the box, making it a possible signal of more down movement to come. [more...] |
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[...more] Both the SPY and the INDU closed with the range expansion being to the downside, as well. It's a disappointing move, probably portending more downside activity to come over the long-range charts.
Figure 2--QQQ Daily Chart with Range Box
Investors have no compelling reasons to begin buying with the information of Friday's closes. A sidelines stance is still the best position to be in. I don't short stocks, but if I did I would not think it yet a good time to be short the stock market. All the action has been too much constantly in the choppy sideway direction. This could just as easily be a bottoming process as a topping process.
Figure 3 - QQQ 15 minute chart showing whipsaws.
As a trader, I cannot justify even trading until the markets give a clearer signal. My models continuously reverse themselves as markets vacillate back and forth between the upper and lower boundaries of the range. Each time price gets to the bottom of the range the model automatically gives a sell signal, only to be quickly reversed as price bounces off the Attractor and heads back up.
The only hope for trading at this juncture would be to channel trade the boundaries. In Figure 2 you can see that there are two more Attractors below current prices, that could be "calling to" price to come on down. These Attractors are at 22.54 and 19.84. If the market (QQQ) moves below 23.80 tomorrow I will consider shorting, but with a tight stop for any bounce that might knock me out.
The Average True Range is about 75cents, which is pretty low--speaking to two things: Either pressure is building as ATR diminishes and a breakout is coming, OR the market will stay range bound with low ATR for some time to come. Either way, it's dangerous to trade without the market telling us -- compelling us -- to trade.
As always, stay nimble, humble and take small losses and big wins.
Updated Seminar Schedule -- click here
for new dates. Several new breakthroughs in the past two
years have given me new material to share with those interested in the
"home business" of trading. On Trader Tech U I will be
giving a ten-week course on Indicators; in Carlsbad I will be
giving several back-to-back sessions of "Solving the Puzzle",
"TradeStation Made Easy" (including the use of the new
TS7), and "Advanced EasyLanguage."
Make it your business. What you don't know CAN hurt you.
Weekly Stock Picks for the week beginning 1/13/2003:
| Symbol | Breakout | Stop Loss | Goal | Close if Triggered | Profit/Loss |
| TXN | 17.50 | 16.00 | 20.00 | ||
| ADBE | 28.70 | 27.00 | 30.00 | ||
| AMGN | 50.60 | 48.70 | 53.00 | ||
| APCC | 15.65 | 15.00 | 16.75 | ||
| CNXT | 1.76 | 1.60 | 1.90 | ||
| DISH | 26.45 | 25.00 | 29.50 | ||
| INTC | 17.55 | 16.50 | 19.00 | ||
| INTU | 51.00 | 48.25 | 52.50 | ||
| MCHP | 28.00 | 26.24 | 30.00 | ||
| QCOM | 39.00 | 35.00 | 44.00 | ||
| TOTAL |
ARCHIVE:
Weekly Stock Picks for the week beginning 1/5/2003:
| Symbol | Breakout | Stop Loss | Goal | Close if Triggered | Profit/Loss |
| UNM | mkt=18.25 | 17.49 | 19.11 | 19.02 | $770 |
| WPI | 29.50 | 27.44 | 33 | no | |
| AHLS | 0.83 | 0.50 | 1.4 | no | |
| ASDS | 0.46 | 0.37 | 0.6 | no | |
| CNXT | 1.85 | 1.5 | 2.5 | no | |
| JDSU | 2.95 | 2.38 | 3.5 | 3.40 | $450 |
| LGTO | 5.52 | 4.33 | 7.63 | 5.87 | $350 |
| MCHP | 26 | 24 | 30 | no | |
| PCAR | 48.3 | 46.3 | 51.6 | no | |
| RNWK | 4.06 | 3.5 | 5 | no | |
| TOTAL | $1,570 |
AND... if you are a TradeStation user, you need to
attend "TradeStation Made Easy"
February 7-9, 2003. Sunny knows TradeStation and EasyLanguage
as only another Trader could, and the class is more engaging and jam
packed with useful information than any other class you can find, at any
price. Enroll
Now--she only takes 15 students. And, the same real-time
trading offer applies.
