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xx
What shall I say? The overlapping cycles
seen in Figure 1 are still overlapping and exerting downward pressure on
the markets. In Figure 1 I have left space to the right of the chart
so you can see how far away the matching troughs are. Eyeballing the
chart (and using a few measuring tools) seems to put the critical date at
about 2
months out from here, or at about
April 23rd. On the weekly Dow chart the 50-day moving average is
below the 200-day moving average, another combination that the market
mavens watch. And that speaks to selling pressure. The low of
the chart on the 21st was at 7854, below the critical 8000 mark. Now
that we have ventured into that level of dangerous territory, there will
be more. In fact, it looks to me that the market will see 7650
next. Note that 7650 is the lower Attractor on the table at the top
of the page.
Also looking at the chart in Figure 1, you will see a magenta line that
I drew on the trend of the lows in RSI. RSI has not risen above that
line in the ensuing 2 months, showing yet another sign of weakness.
On the daily QQQ charts price has jumped above its midline in the
Sunny_Bands, where it has stayed for the past 3 days. The only
problem is that it is being held down by it Attractor at the 25.20
level. That's a tight squeeze and the market will have to break out
of it pretty soon, one
Figure 2- QQQ Daily and "the box"
way or another. My guess is that the
negative influences are just too strong at the moment for an upside
breakout with much momentum, so I think we will break down at the 24.40
level and run on down to the 23.35 level. That action could easily
take two months to build and put us at the end of the cycles, from where
we will begin a strong turnaround moving sharply up and at that time I
will
be buying with both hands.
But, keep in mind that this is not happening tomorrow. It's a longer term
projection.
As for the very short timers, there is a short-term buy signal on my
SPY model, with a pennant breakout which has been penetrated giving
confirmation. Now the protective stop is at 84.78 with a
profit-taking stop set above the pennant at 85.39. RSI is high
enough on the short-term chart for price to start turning down making for
a reversal. So, that's what I think we will be seeing tomorrow:
first upwaves to complete the move, followed grinding moves to the
downside, not not stopping until we have made a recent, new
low.
XXX
Gold has been doing a little retracing, which
taking it down to the 340 range. That won't last for long, before it
starts rising again.
As always, stay nimble and quick. And
never be afraid to take profits even if it seems early. They add up.
God Bless.
