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The New Moon is on or about March 2. They
say that the best time to start a war is on the darkest night.
Obviously more people than I know this and the markets are just drifting
along indecisively waiting to see what the new moon will bring. The
area I highlighted in yellow on Figure 1 is the low of the pennant formed
by the eight bars that follow it. That number is 7940, just barely
above where the Dow closed today.
The attractor at 84.66 on the SPY
is keeping pressure on the markets from that aspect, working in
conjunction with the overlapping cycles which are also exerting downward
force. From that chart I expect to see the next couple of days to be
down or sideways. As long as the SPY doesn't move below 82.55,
however, I believe this market activity is becoming bullish. Of
course, only the market will tell us the truth in the end. But, for
now, I think we are putting in a short-term bottoming formation.
Figure 2- SPY 15-minute
If enough people read this and
agree, and act accordingly, then it won't happen. The synergy of
market players is such that when too many people stand on one side of the
boat, the boat tips over.
Looking at the daily chart of the QQQs,
in FIgure 3, you can see that price is still inside the box, but moving
precariously toward the bottom edge. My expectation is for price to
break beneath the box once again before making a forceful move in one
direction or the other. It will tell us which way it is going, but
not much before hand. ATR is diminishing, and RSI is staying
boringly low, as you can see.
Figure 3- Daily QQQs
RSI has done nothing but
muddle around in between between the 40 and 65 limits, neither
declaring itself bullish or bearish. Just about every
indicator I have inspected is simply saying middle of the road,
indecisive nothing comments. Nothing is exciting, so just hang
tight with whatever position you are in until the market says
something compelling. After something compelling comes about,
the best thing to do is nothing.
XXX
My last mention of gold was to say: "Gold has been doing a little retracing, which
is taking it down to the 340 range. That won't last for long, before it
starts rising again." Well, it has begun that rising now.
It didn't quite get to the 340 mark before turning around, so that's a
show of strength. I expect as rumors of war continue that the price
of gold will go on up until hitting the 380 mark again.
As always, stay nimble and quick. And
never be afraid to take profits even if it seems early. They add up.
God Bless.
