The Sunny Side of the Street
MONDAY
NIGHT - July 21, 2003
Archives of Past
Commentaries . How Did We Do?
Weekend Stock Picks --
CLICK HERE
Figure 1a: COMPARISON: DOW vs SPY vs NASDAQ (Intraday)
Figure 1b: INDU Daily
Dang, if the INDU isn't beginning to look like the chart of the EuroDollar. Straight across, going nowhere, smaller and smaller range days.
One of these days it will break out, but we know not when. And, we don't know which direction, although I still expect at this point that the breakout will be upward into a 5th wave. Time will tell.
Again, I am neutral the daily Dow, waiting for a breakout above 9327 or below 9000 to show me what to do.
 | EDUCATION is not expensive; lack of education is! |
| Consider this, how much can you lose on a single trade? How much should you pay for good advice? If you could make $1,000 per month trading advice that cost you $139.95 per month, would it be worth it? That's 7:1 odds! |
| Subscribe now to The Sunny Side of the Street and SAVE. If you are receiving this commentary as part of the one-week trial and subscribe before the week runs out, your subscription will be only $99.95 per month, for as long as you are a continuous subscriber. If you wait, the regular subscription price is $139.95/month, which is still a great value! |
| Like the indicators I use in this commentary? If you are a TradeStation user, you can have them on your computer, so you can follow along intraday! |
| Need a MENTOR? Sunny is available for hourly consultation, or for extended studies. Call (888) 68-SUNNY...that's (888) 687-8669. |
| How about help using or programming TradeStation? Give us a call. It's what I enjoy the most. |
Figure 2a: SPY Daily
Same story, same picture, different vehicle. The SPY is also going sideways, and is now below a sideways Sunny_Band on a closing basis. To me this just says to be neutral until the model gets a sell signal or until prices cross below the lower Sunny_Band.
The RSI is now low enough to start another leg to the upside, with another bullish leg in the market, but it is probably a day or more away.
Figure 3a: QQQ Day bars
Figure 3b: QQQ 15-minute IntraDay bars
At least the QQQ does a little moving intraday, which is thus more exciting than the other two indexes.
From the intraday model the signal is still calling for shorting opportunities. Nevertheless, I see positive divergence on the RSI, positive divergence on the ATR and an early crossover on the SDMA Histogram, all of which signal me to be wary for a nearby change in direction.
I rather expect the QQQ to come back up from the midline, but only time will tell, as always. All I can say is it is neutral zone time, until we get a signal from breaking above or below the markers already in place.
Figure 4a: EMini 15-minute Intraday
Likewise here, as compared to
the QQQs. The model SDMA is still short, but I see positive divergence
on the RSI and diminishing volume on the down move. This again makes
me watch out for nearby reversals.
Figure 5a: EuroDollar Daily - Sunday night commentary only
The
current signal on the EuroDollar model is still short, with nothing yet to
confirm or deny the signal. My interest in
shorting this market will only come if the EuroDollar drops below 98.88.
Until then, I stand neutral. This commentary still holds, two weeks
later, with the ED moving ever so slowly sideways.
Stay sharp and on your toes. Moves can reverse on a dime, anytime. Let the market speak to you. If the market is going down, by golly ignore my commentary from the night before and know that the market is going down.
RULES OF THUMB:
0. I keep the chart in Figure 1a on each day's commentary simply to illustrate how much in tandem the 4 indexes I watch actually are. For this reason, I don't always comment on every index. Analysis of one speaks highly for the same analysis for each of the other indexes.
1. When price is pushing the upper Sunny_Bands upward and then eases off and moves back toward the midline, it's time to take profits. If it starts moving up and pushing on the Sunny_Bands again, it's time to get back in. Likewise, if the market is pushing down on the lower Sunny_Band and eases off to move back to the midline, it's time to take profits from the short play.
2. Divergence of the RSI and price is another good time to take profits and wait for a breakout of price before taking a position.
3. When the exchange puts in curbs or trading halts on a large move down, it usually (not always) stops the downward motion. After the market reopens is a good time to take profits from your short position.
4. The market can't go nowhere forever. Eventually, who knows how long it will be, there will have to be a breakout-- one direction or the other.
5. This commentary is for educational purposes only, and is meant only to teach readers about my indicators, other technical indicators, and how I read them.
==<:>==
While it may be true that a picture is worth a thousand words, it is definitely not true that a picture deserves a thousand words.