Sunday night September 19, 2021
Real-Time Profit/Loss Viewer
VantagePoint ai Prediction for Tomorrow
VP clearly projects the anticipated direction and magnitude of tomorrow’s market. One can use any symbol; I trade the EMini S&P short-term and select stocks for my long-term portfolio.
My read of this chart is: The Dow was up and down last week, ending the week down about a hundred points, with the week being in a narrow 400 point range. No real progress was made in either direction. Tomorrow's prediction is for more on the downside, with a predicted low of 34,423.
Check the home page of this website daily to keep up with the predictions from VantagePoint. The prediction for tomorrow is another down day with a high of 34,817 and a low of 34,423.
The MovingAverages are in a bit of conflict, with the medium and short-term averages below the zero-line and the short-term MAV also below the zero-line after popping up during the week and then ending the week below it.
While this prediction is good for tomorrow, wouldn't you want to know every day of the week? Of course, the best thing is to run VP every afternoon, not just on Sunday nights, like I do for this newsletter. And you can always look at the home page of MoneyMentor to see the current VP chart.
VP (VantagePoint ai Software) suggests that tomorrow could explore a bit to the upside but test lower areas still.
The Charts That Worried Me Last Week
Last Sunday and the week prior I said that the charts of the Dow and EMini S&P 500 worried me. The charts still worry me. While the VP prediction for the Dow says even lower prices, the predictions for the ES and NQ are not quite as dismal. Those charts also show downward motion but not as deep. Are we in the crash yet? No, I don't think so. My read of the charts says the move is ready to test some recovery. The low of the move is upon us. Friday was expiration for the ES and that usually involves selling as we roll over into new contracts.
Notice on the charts above of the 3 indices I watch that there are Attractors right below the current market. That should cause a bounce after the Attractors are tested. Could it go lower? Of course. That's what markets do. As for me, I closed my stock positions three weeks ago and am now ready to start buying back in. I'm watching for the right opportunity.
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The Dow is now sitting very close to the Attractor that lies at 34,000. Natural Numbers (integers) are often stumbling blocks for market charts. They seem to cause sideways movement as the players try to decide which way to go next. This next week looks like it might fall to this level. If it isn't contained there the next level down is currently at 33,516, another 500 points down.
We are now into the September/October timeframe, when markets often correct. I am still preparing for a correction of some size. I sold most of my stock holdings three weeks ago when the markets showed weakness, but before the down move really started. I am still flat the stocks but waiting for a sign to tell me to buy back in.
The bottom fishing didn't come into play with the move down last week. We will see some buying over the next few days, as traders try to anticipate the bottom. But I don't think the bottom is in yet for several reasons:
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I am still predicting Dow 50,000 but not just yet. We still have some downs and ups to explore before we get there. Beware October!
S&P 500 (ES)
The ES has been correcting every 21 days or so (a Fibonacci number) at the rate of about 3-4%. This time the correction last week took the ES right to the 55-day MAV. It should hold there if the corrections cycle holds. The DMA_H however is not below zero, but it hasn't dipped below zero since October of 2020. The red lines on the DMA_H have held at zero and have only signaled short-term corrections. If the DMA_H dips below zero we can expect a sizable correction to follow.
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Since this is a weekly missive, we miss the daily changes to the indicators. Send me an email if you are interested in daily updates. I can have them sent to you directly from my trading platform. Or better yet, order SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own computer. Of course, like all my products, they work on intraday charts just a well. All symbols, all timeframes.
Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions
Fibonacci extensions are still in force, projecting long-term higher prices. But the arcs still look corrective.
The Fibonacci Speed/Resistance Arcs on the above chart at the far right tend to portend a correction! Sometimes the corrections happen before the arc and sometimes after, but it is a pretty good predictor. At the moment it looks like the correction may be nearly over. However, in this afternoon's futures market the ES is further down, and is now below the 55-day MAV. That is not a good sign.
Also notice that I have drawn a trendline over the highs on the ATR (Average True Range). The ATR has now poked its head above the trendline. That could mean higher or lower prices. All it tells us is that larger moves are in order.
To get a long-term perspective, let's look at the various positions called for by the consensus of timeframes. Only the short-term indicators are bearish. The other timeframes are bullish but turning down. Not much has changed in this regard from last week.
You need to have these indicators for your own to take your trading to the next level.
Call me (1-760-908-3070) and I'll send you a 7-day FREE trial of these indicators for you to see for yourself. Don't want to call? Just fill out your questions and desires on my Comments form and I'll get right back to you.
Stocks
In this section, I like to take a peek at a few of my favorite stocks. Like Cathy Wood, of Ark Invest, I like disruptive stocks, those that promise radical changes to the way we live, like TSLA. I also trade what I know. I use Amazon in real life, so I trade AMZN. I use Verizon as my phone carrier, so I trade VZ. I use Microsoft software so I trade MSFT and so on. Let's first look at the RadarScreen view of a few stocks:
The table above is my main research tool. It not only has my DMA_H predictions but also shows my PHW indicator and another indicator I call RedLiteGreenLite.
When I sort on PHW from highest to lowest tells me which stocks are the most tradable. A stock that just moves slowly from A to B is an investment, not a tradable. I'm looking for wide swings from which to profit, not just buy-and-hold. This is how I decide what to trade.
RedLiteGreenLite shows me three short-term DMAs (DynamicMovingAverages) of 2, 3, and 10 periods. This is another quick way of viewing the state of the stocks in question. Notice how much red is on the RadarScreen. Lots of bearishness for the short-term.
To me trading is not about being right! There are lots of advisors and stock pickers out there who boast about getting MSFT at $32 and holding it for gazillions in profit. My trading style is to specialize in a few things and be good at them. The stock pickers never tell you how many they picked right, only the few that were the big winners. I specialize in a handful of stocks for the long swings and the EMini futures for intraday trading.
The columns just past the middle of the RadarScreen window show a colorful area that tells me at a glance the configuration of my DMA_H on all the stocks in this portfolio. (This indicator is called DMA_R_H, meaning DynamicMovingAverage RadarScreen Histogram.) Green Bearish \/ means the stock has been bearish but is now turning up. Purple \\ means primarily bearish. (These are the colors in the DMA_H and SunnyBands DMA. So, "purple" means Purple is on top in the DMA.) Gold Bullish // means the stock is moving upward. Red Bullish /\ means the stock has been going up but has now turned downward.
Of course, you can sort on any or several of these columns with this indicator. Color coding things makes it easy for me to spot opportunities at a glance.
From this look (above) at the RadarScreen (like a spreadsheet) I can sort by SDMA, which shows me all the bullish stocks on top with Dir showing me which are moving aggressively upward and which have been moving up but have now turned down or the PHW which shows me the most tradable stocks. Call me, I'll explain it. 1-760-908-3070 PST.
Click Here to see and listen to the DMA_H Live with BingTicks!
AMZN, the stock with the highest PHW, is in my focus today, and has been the last few SSS's. Why? Because it is a great swing trading stock as well as a long-term investment. The yellow rectangle shows the channel it has been in. Notice on the right that the swings have been getting higher and the current move is about to hit an Attractor. I'm thinking this one is in for another move up. At its current price of 3,462 a swing up to recent highs would give a 300 point profit per share.
Notice a newish indicator on the charts My PennantFinder indicator draws congestion patterns, highlighted by blue triangles and red breakout lines. This past week, while Sam Tennis and I were working on our new book "TradeStation EasyLanguage OOEL Made Easy!" he taught me how to highlight the pennants with a yellow background using OOEL. It definitely makes it easy to see. If you already have this indicator, call me or email me so I can send you the update. (Updates are always free.)
Cathy Wood's projection for TSLA (below) is 4,000 at this juncture. She may raise or lower her projection, but this is it currently.
While the week was down for the indices, TSLA held strong and was up on the week. The gold DMA line is still above the purple, a sign of strength. While the rest of the market was sideways to down, TSLA was up about 50 points on the week. If it continues upward I'm looking at the upper objective happening. If it goes lower, I'm again a buyer of the weakness.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading.
Send me a note telling me what stock you would like to see analyzed next week.
BitCoin, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
BitCoin is suffering also. Bitcoin is hanging out with general market direction. Sideways. Since its high of 65,000 it is now at 47,150. There was one big down day on 9/7/21 and it hasn't yet recovered from that drop. Nevertheless, the DMA_H is still above the zero-line and holding. While price is below the 21-day MAV it is still above the 55-day MAV. The DMA is moving sideways, which I take to be neutral.
At 4:40pm as I write this, BTC is still near Friday's close. After-hours trading was up sharply and then sharply down, leaving it nearly unchanged.
I'm still believing in the Crypto Culture as a planetary currency. Only time will tell. At the very least it will encourage computer manufacturers to make faster processors.
Gold
Gold futures are trading sideways from Friday's close, currently at 1,754 after a big down day on Friday. The weekly chart looks like a mass of congestion. That tells me we are not sure of its future. Will it remain the "gold standard" or will we convert to cryptos? I still believe in the metal and its value.
I am still a holder of and believer in the metal. I don't speculate in the gold stocks since so many factors can govern its mining and business practices. I like the physical and believe we will still see $2,000 gold.
Bonds
Bonds are still hanging out right at the DMA lines at 158 30/32, neither showing weakness nor strength. They have been in a little channel going sideways since 7/19/21. All the while though price has also been congesting into a triangle formation. That would say that price should soon break out to either side. I'm not a buyer or seller at the moment. I wait for the market to tell me what to do. There is heavy support at 160 and resistance at 165. We shall see.
MY DIATRIBE FOR THE DAY
Real-Time P/L Viewer - Samuel K. Tennis
Sam Tennis and I are writing a new book together: "EasyLanguage Object-Oriented Programming Made Easy!" You already know that. We'll be done in a year or so. Get notified of the publication as soon as it goes to press. Get your autographed copy now.
As part of this adventure we are coding examples and testing ideas for the book. I asked Sam for a Real Time Position Viewer that I could put on my charts when I'm trading. He oblidged with this wonderful gadget. I put it on the chart I am trading (usually ES) and not only does it show me the real time updates but gives me everything else I need to know while I'm in a trade. It parks itself on the side of the chart automatically and allows (on the Settings tab) you to blank out your account number, set the colors for upticks and downticks and to play sounds for each tick so you can listen to the market.
I find it invaluable. It is a MUST for avid and frequent traders. If you would like one for your own, contact Mr. Tennis at
Next, for you TradeStation folks out there his own book is "Ask Mr. EasyLanguage." It was written for the express purpose of helping users of TradeStation understand EasyLanguage.
Mr. Tennis provides the basics and then goes further by naming specific problems and taking the reader through the steps of correcting and understanding the solutions. The goal Mr. Tennis sought was to demystify EasyLanguage so that everyone could use it. He clearly accomplished that goal.
Anyone who has any interest in TradeStation at all should read this book. Sam was the lead designer of EasyLanguage when he worked at TradeStation (then Omega Research) and knows more about it than anyone else, since he wrote it in the first place. Get yours on Amazon.
Everyone needs a Trading Plan! All entrepreneurs need a Business Plan. If you aim for nothing, you'll surely hit it. You must have a plan to succeed. I have gone to great lengths to create a Trading Plan for myself and for YOU. If you would like to see what I think about creating your Trading Plan, just fill in this form and I'll send it to you FREE. Look Below for a Snippet.
IMPORTANT: Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to buy or sell securities of any type, nor is it advice to make any financial decisions. You are in charge of your assets and only you know your risk tolerance and how much you can afford to lose. Never invest/trade with money you cannot afford to lose. This information is intended as educational only. DISCLOSURE.
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"Thanks very much; I do like hearing from you [, Sunny]. Thanks to SunnyBands I now have a net worth above $1.25 Million." -Don T. [Editor's note: Don started 3 years ago with a $25,000 account. And, he told me yesterday that his account is now well over $2 Million.]
SunnyBands - SunnyBands are a extension of my DMA. The two lines above and two lines below the purple and gold DMA alert me to where the market is going. They are constructed from ATR bands on either side of the DMA.
DMA_H - Sunny"s DynamicMovingAverage in histogram format, using sophisticated math to smooth out the whipsaws.
Of course, my indicators work on any symbol, any time frame. In my own trading I use 1-min charts of the ES.
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