Sunday night February 13, 2022
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I got this very sad message from Sam Tennis: "Friday Feb 11, 2022: It is with a heavy heart that I bring you the news that Trixie (my African Grey parrot) has gone to that great seed catalog in the sky, so to speak. She was taken before her time. It appears that she had wiggled free of her cage and was probably sitting atop, always has been one of her favorite spots to perch, fell victim to a hawk earlier today. It appears one of Steve's dogs became active in the tussle; we are comforting ourselves that he was trying to defend her honor. The bird of prey was chased off and did not return but it was too late for Trixie. Thankfully her body was not mauled by the dogs which goes to show the level of affection they held her in. Thank you, brother Steve and family, for the recent years you spent as her caregiver. Having an outdoors cage was such a blessing for her. I can not tell you how much I appreciate all the effort you have gone through to care for her. Now who am I going to talk to when I have coding problems?" If you want to send Sam a message, here's his email: sktennis@vista-research.com.
QUICKLINKS: VantagePoint | Last Week I said | Dow | ES | SunnyBands Implications | Trading Room | Automated Strategy | Multiple Timeframes | Stocks | BitCoin & Etherium | Gold | Bonds | Diatribe | DEFINITIONS| Quips & Quotes
VantagePoint ai Prediction for Tomorrow
https://vpai.us/sunnyharris to view a demonstration of using VantagePoint.
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Tonight's VantagePoint Prediction is of the Dow.
As you can see, their prediction for Monday is for a high of 35,156 and a low of 34,261. More downward motion predicted.
The close Friday was at 34,738. VP has been VERY accurate lately, predicting the recent downdraft before it started. Except they were a bit off on Wednesday's prediction. That's okay; they are more than 80% correct according to my research. The moving averages are all three turned downward. And only the long-term average is still above zero.
When I get the latest prediction I put horizontal lines on my chart at the predicted high and the predicted low so I can use them as targets.
Check my MoneyMentor home page of this website daily to keep up with the daily predictions of the Dow from VantagePoint. I post them every day after 4pm PST.
While this prediction is good for tomorrow, wouldn't you want to know every day of the week? Of course, the best thing is to run VantagePoint every afternoon, not just on Sunday nights, as I do for this newsletter. And you can always look at the home page of MoneyMentor to see the current VP chart. I just submitted a Review of VantagePoint for TradersWorld magazine. Look for it in 2 months or so.
Last Week I Said
Last Sunday I said "Price is now touching the DMA lines, and in fact is using the DMA as Support. Purple is on top denoting bearishness still. Friday's close is below the 20-day MAV and the 50-day MAV and is just barely above the 200-day MAV. Any move to the downside will take us back below the 200-day MAV. Not good."
Monday thru Wednesday were slightly up followed by Thursday and Friday taking back all those gains plus more, only to close below the DMA.It seems now that the VP prediction will take the Dow back down to the closing prices of the week of 1/24/22. If things get bleak we could even test the low of 1/24/22 this week.
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The Dow, which consists of 30 industrial stocks, not the high tech ones that I like to trade, moved up Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday, only to reverse and take out that price move. The Dow futures (YM) is up slightly this afternoon (by 80 points) which doesn't tell us much about tomorrow. Overnight trading often goes haywire and gets reversed when the day session opens at 6:30am PT Monday.
Price is now below the DMA, with Purple on top. The DMA_H has flashed Green and then Purple again, speaking to the sideways price action and the flatish DMA.
The LowerOuter SunnyBand sits at 33,950 while the UpperOuter band is at 36,076. That's a 2,125 point range. I find that price tends to test these extremes to the downside if it goes below the DMA and to the upside if it goes above the DMA. I'm looking for more volatility tomorrow.
Friday's candle is sitting astraddle the 20-day and 200-day MAVs and just under the 5-day MAV. Some decision about direction should be in the works tomorrow.
I have a new indicators I call "Recession" which uses OOEL to draw a horizontal line from the highest high down 20% (or x% via inputs). I used an input of 10% and found that the Dow traded right down to it and bounced. It is right now sitting below the 5% down level. This indicator will be in an Example in the text of "EasyLanguage OOEL Made Easy!"
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S&P 500 (ES)
The ES was like the Dow, up and then down, finishing the week about 3 points lower than it opened on Monday.
The Outer SunnyBands lie at 4,647 and 4,308. To resume an uptrend we need to be headed for the UpperOuter band. The 10% "recession" lies at 4,325, not too far under where we are right now. We haven't yet touched the LIB, so I'm anticipaing we will at least go that far, which is 4,371. Whether we will bounce safely from there or cascade on down to retest the 10% down level remains to be seen.
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Since this is a weekly missive, we miss the daily changes to the indicators. Send me an email if you are interested in daily updates. I can have them sent to you directly from my trading platform to your email or your phone. Or better yet, order SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own computer. Of course, like all my products, they work on intraday charts just as well. All symbols, all timeframes.
To get a long-term perspective, let's look at the various positions called for by the consensus of timeframes. Note that the timeframes are all bearish in one form or another. All show Bearish except the monthly, which says Bullish turning down.
It really helps to have these indicators for your own, to take your trading to the next level.
Call me (1-760-908-3070) and I'll send you a 7-day FREE trial of these indicators for you to see for yourself. Don't want to call? Just fill out your questions and desires on my Comments form and I'll get right back to you.
Stocks
In this section, I like to take a peek at a few of my favorite stocks. I trade what I know. I use Amazon in real life, so I trade AMZN. I use Verizon as my phone carrier, so I trade VZ. I use Google all the time. I use Microsoft software so I trade MSFT and so on. Let's first look at the RadarScreen view of a few stocks:
The table above is my main research tool. It not only has my DMA_H predictions but also shows my PHW indicator (yellow) at the far right and 3 short-term averages calculated with my DMA smoothing function. I call this one RedLite-GreenLite.
When I sort on PHW from highest to lowest tells me which stocks are the most tradable. A stock that just moves slowly from A to B is an investment, not a tradeable (to me). I'm looking for wide swings from which to profit, not just buy-and-hold. This is how I decide what stocks to buy and which to trade. AMZN is still the most tradable, with the highest PHW.
This week I have sorted on the PHW, showing the least tradable stocks at the top. That means either these stocks are low-priced or they are trending stocks.
This week the RadarScreen shows a new idicator: It is showing the direction of price relative to the 20-, 50- and 200-day simple moving averages. Since these are popular numbers watched by many, including pundits, I wanted to see if any stocks stand out as still being winners. I also find that the NQ responds to these numbers dramatically on a 1-minute chart.
Trending stock EXC shows all green cells in the 3MAVs columns, meaning not only is it trending but it is above the 20-, 50-, and 200-day MAVs. Likewise, FOX is well above all 3 MAVs. Here is a Scan of all the stocks in the NASDAQ that are above all 3 MAVs. It makes for interesting reading. I use this sort to find bullish stocks in a down market.
To me trading is not about being right! There are lots of advisors and stock pickers out there who boast about getting MSFT at $32 and holding it for gazillions in profit. My trading style is to specialize in a few things and be good at them. The stock pickers never tell you how many they picked right, only the few that were the big winners. I specialize in a handful of stocks for the long swings and the EMini futures for intraday trading.
The columns to the right of the RadarScreen window show a colorful area that tells me at a glance the configuration of my DMA_H on all the stocks in this portfolio. (This indicator is called DMA_R_H, meaning DynamicMovingAverage RadarScreen Histogram.) Green Bearish \/ means the stock has been bearish but is now turning up. Purple \\ means primarily bearish. (These are the colors in the DMA_H and SunnyBands DMA. So, "purple" means Purple is on top in the DMA.) Gold Bullish // means the stock is moving upward. Red Bullish /\ means the stock has been going up but has now turned downward.
Of course, you can sort on any or several of the RadarScreen columns with this indicator. Color coding things makes it easy for me to spot opportunities at a glance. If you would like this indicator for your TS RadarScreen click here.
From this look (above) at the RadarScreen (like a spreadsheet) I can sort by SDMA, which shows me all the bullish stocks on top with Dir showing me which are moving aggressively upward and which have been moving up but have now turned down or the PHW which shows me the most tradable stocks. Call me, I'll explain it. 1-760-908-3070 PST. Or, better yet, email me your TS Customer Nbr and I'll set you up with a FREE 7-day trial.
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HUM
HUM has nearly recovered from its precipitous drop a few weeks ago. It has not completely closed the gap, however. Price is currently in a pennant formation, waiting to break out to one side or the other. Traditional Technical Analysis tells us that pennants often breakout in the direction of the previous trend. That makes it difficult to read since the previous short-term trend is up, but the gap was sharply down.
You can see that Who'sOnTop is showing Gold, looking for more bullishness.
AMZN, is still the stock with the highest PHW, with Bookings Holdings (BKNG) second, with AMZN dramatically dropping on Thursday 2/3/22 only to completely recover and more the stock is still working on its recovery. It did the same as the rest of the market moving up Monday thru Wednesday and back down Thursday and Friday. It it not by any means as low as it was on 2/3/22 though.
While AMZN dropped straight through the cnannel it was in "forever" it now has broken into the channel and back out again. Right now it sits just under the channel.
Price is above the DMA line but Purple is still on top. Yet, the DmA_H signalled bullishness even before the big drop and still continues bullish.
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (below) is now at 5,000 at this juncture. Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting 5,000 also.
The DMA Midline lies at 963.50 while the UIB is at 1,028.90. That's my target. Nevertheless, Purple is still on top and has been for some time. The slope of the SunnyBands picture is downward. VantagePoint is calling for more downside action tomorrow, into the 800s.
I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped more that 30% from its high.
Twelve weeks ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that. The past week it has touched the DMA five times, however, in its attempt to gain ground. The DMA has acted as resistance, but price is above the LOB, and that's a good sign for her. The DMA_H signalled Green eleven days ago and is now going sideways to slightly up. I saw that she bought some more TSLA--in her daily updates that I get. If TSLA goes up so will ARKK.
The chart below is a daily chart. We have been looking at daily charts, which look dismal. In a conference call she had two weeks agi she pointed out that she is up 21% on a 3-year and 5-year basis, outstripping many other ETFs. Corrections are natural and she's now down to the 76.4% Fib line, but not yet down to the lower Attractor. In fact, ARKK is down 58% from its all-time high. Still she's up nicely on a 3-year basis.
Maybe ARKK is putting in a bottom. I'm not buying in just yet, though.
MSFT (closing at 295.04 Friday) is just barely above its 200-day MAV and just barely below the 20-day MAV. It has a way to go yet. The trendline you see in orange is downsloping and still has to be broken for much of a move upward.
The UOB SunnyBand lies at 325.23 while the LOB is at 289.03. Last week I said: "I wouldn't be surprised if price continues on down to at least the LIB which is at 293.89" and that's where it went. The VP Prediction for tomorrow is for some movement to the upside but more movement to the downside. You can't tell which will happen first, however, in intraday trading activity.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Send me a note telling me what stock you would like to see analyzed next week. If you are reading this I would like some suggestions! Click here to leave me a Comment.
BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
BitCoin is down 670 in afterhours trading this evening. Bitcoin used to be countertrend to the stock market, but no longer. As goes the S&P so goes Bitcoin. I still believe it will be widely accepted as currency, though I have no idea when. Price sits on the MidLine, after touching both the UIB and UOB last week. The DMA MidLine is at 41,136 and serves as an Attractor offering resistance.
I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Etherium) since its low in May 2021. I'm still holding a nice profit in ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens. Price is sitting right beneath the MidLine and is down 72 points. The DMA is flat which could act as support or resistance, either one. It pretty much stays in correspondence with Bitcoin.
Gold
Gold has been flat as a pancake. Without syrup. Lately. I've even seen pundits comment that it could go to 10,000. Don't believe it. However, price has moved slightly up this week and there is an Attractor overhead at 1,886 calling it's name.
The Midline is at 1,818 and price is currently at 1,810. The range high to low was 46 points on Friday and it is trading slightly upward. I don't have much to say about Gold, but I think we will see 2,000 some day. Someday.
Wednesday (Feb 2, 2022) I gave a talk at Traders Corner. All who attended and wanted the slides, they are posted under Membership. Be sure to become a Member for free and login to have access to the presentation.
Bonds
Bonds are down this week, again. In afterhours trading this evening pric has opened higher and drifted back down so that bonds are now down 7/32nds. Price is a 152-14/32. The Midline is at 154.72 and price is between the LOB and LIB -- usually a bearish sign. Bonds go down, yields go up. Interest rates are expected to go up in a few weeks. Has the market already built that into price? Will it be a non-event when it happens? We shall see.
DEFINITIONS
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MY DIATRIBE FOR THE DAY
IMPORTANT: Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to buy or sell securities of any type, nor is it advice to make any financial decisions. You are in charge of your assets and only you know your risk tolerance and how much you can afford to lose. Never invest/trade with money you cannot afford to lose. This information is intended as educational only. DISCLOSURE.
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Products
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Quips and Quotes
"Thanks very much; I do like hearing from you [, Sunny]. Thanks to SunnyBands I now have a net worth above $1.25 Million." -Don T. [Editor's note: Don started 3 years ago with a $25,000 account. And, he told me yesterday that his account is now well over $2 Million.] "This is a very powerful tool! It's better that what I've had. I'm going to scrap my old tools. It's speaking to me. I kicked butt today making $1,500 trading crude, gold and the S&P." (re SunnyBands) -Tony C.
"I want to thank you for your books. I have read them all and it has been what has inspired me to have confidence in what I have been trading. This month alone I'm currently up $80k." -Tim A.
"Impressive Resume! Wow. You have forgotten more than most of us will likely learn. :)" - Kevin S.
"U r still a genius!!! Not a single losing trade all week!!!" - Chip S.
SunnyBands - SunnyBands are a extension of my DMA. The two lines above and two lines below the purple and gold DMA alert me to where the market is going. They are constructed from ATR bands on either side of the DMA, which is my proprietary moving average that avoids most of the whipsaw action experienced by other moving averages.
DMA_H - Sunny"s DynamicMovingAverage in histogram format, using sophisticated math to smooth out the whipsaws.
Of course, my indicators work on any symbol, any time frame. In my own trading I use 1-min & 5-min charts of the ES.
If you aren't already a MoneyMentor Member, please consider joining here. Tell me what you trade and what you'd like to see me add to this newsletter.
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Sunny has been teaching others to trade almost as long as she has been trading. Helping struggling novices over the hurdles is a passion of hers. Sunny has won awards for her teaching and consulting, being #1 in several categories. Sunny can teach you how to use TradeStation & MultiCharts and EasyLanguage and PowerLanguage, TC2000, VantagePoint, NinjaTrader, Genesis Navigator, and MetaStock so you don’t spend months struggling on your own. If you have a concept you want programmed, she can do it for you or teach you how to do it yourself. Click Here.
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