Sunday February 18, 2024 VOLUME 8 ISSUE 08
AAPL | AMZN | BTC | DOW | CL | ES | GC | GOOGL | HUM | META | MSFT | NVDA | SBUX | TSLA | US
Introduction
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Sunny Side of the Street (SSS)
The charts below are now organized first alphabetically by commodities and then alphabetically by stock symbol. It should be easier to read and find the symbol you want to take a look at.
Vantage Point Prediction
The VP Prediction for tomorrow: High : 38,825.80 Low: 38,527.21. The Moving Averages are mixed: some up, some down. The Medium MAV is below the zero-line, but just barely. The other two are above the zero-line but just barely. To me this speaks of more congestion to come.
Take a look at the Monthly chart below.
Glenn Neely's NEoWave Forecast
Glenn Neely has graciously granted us continued access to his weekly predictions! Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory and NEoWave technology. See where he thinks it will go next.
In today's chart is a Weekly view so you can see longer term predictions. Click on the link to http://www.NEoWave.com visit his website.
http://www.NEoWave.com
Notice the spot marked I (capital i) where Neely is expecting topping around 60,000.
Overview (DOW & ES)
DOW ($INDU)
Chart
Statistics
$INDU was down by -43.70 this week and now is sitting at 38627.99.
Last Time I Said
The air is thin at the top. People start taking profits. Others get scared that it's going to crash. And then there are those who start shorting. I'm still long, but I'm watching it very carefully. Get ready for anything.
Current SunnyBands Signals
We are currently in a Buy from 11/03/23 at 34,061 and with price now at 38,627 we have about 4,566 points of potential profit in this signal.
Analysis
The DOW is in a slow climb, but it's still a climb. The trend is still up. At this point only a move below the DMA will get me into a Short trade. The DMA has Purple on top, but the only way you can tell (they are so close together) is by looking at the Dots on the Who's On Top indicator. And from that I can tell. Purple just went on top on Friday. We have one dot. It's clear that folks are taking cover, but the question is just how much will they sell?
If the selling gathers momentum then we could go down to the DMA which is currently at 38,287. That would put us about 500 points down. If it continues to go down after that, the next target is 37,923 at the LIB. There is an Attractor at 37,997, which is basically 38,000. That wouldn't surprise me.
Neither would it surprise me to see the week move on up, even to the next Fibonacci (Fib) line at 39,511.
Monthly DOW
Notice on this Monthly Dow chart of percentage change that we are still above the UOB and the Attractor at 35,111 on the Monthly.
It looks like we have finished wave 4 and are now headed for higher highs as we work on wave 5. As we get toward 40,000 we will likely congest while attempting to get above another Natural Number.
ES (S&P 500)
@ES was down by -24.25 this week and now is sitting at 5019.75.
"The Yellow line from last week is the danger zone being tested. I'm hoping we blast right through that area and make that Yellow line into Support. Rignt now it is Resistance."
And even though we made an All Time New High (ATH) we drifted back down from that by about 50 points at the end of the week. Actually, it got lower rhan that on Tuesday as it wicked to the DMA, but it finished up a bit from the low.
We are in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 4,801.25 on 01/08/24. With price right now at 5,029.00 that gives us 117.75 points of potential profit. At $50 per contract, that's about $11,387 of potential.
There are always many clues as to future direction on any chart. On this Daily chart of ES I see several things. We broke out above the UOB on Monday and then drifted back to the UIB. If the market is strong, and the options buyers will continue betting, then this week should be an Up one. On the Weekly chart we are still on top of the UOB, with one tentative Red candle peaking below it on a wick. If we get another Red candle below the UIB then it's a short trigger. But with Gold on top in the DMA and Slope very positive I will ignore this signal until and unless it closes below the DMA.
Commodities
BitCoin (BTC)
@BTC was up by 4255 this week and now is sitting at 52025.
"Looks like we'll again see about 70,000 again, but I think we are in for some backing and forthing in the near-term."
BTC is in a SunnyBands Buy signal since 01/26/24 at 42,390. With price currently at 52,230 that's about 9,840 points of potential profit so far.
BitCoin is making a push for the ATHs. Slope is 70 degrees which is very positive; DMA is Purple on top but the DMA Histogram (DMA_H) is very, very close to moving above the zero-line and turning Gold. It looks to me that the upward push will continue until BTC gets to the next Fib Attractor at 57,861 (Monthly chart).
@CL was up by 1.90 this week and now is sitting at 78.46.
"We need to be on our toes with this one as it could easily turn around at the UIB, which will likely be touched this week."
The UIB at that time was at 77.61. This week we got to a high of 78.49. The UOB on last week's SSS was at 79.34. I still think that's a possibility for this week.
We are currently in a SunnyBands Buy signal emanating from 75.94 on 02/08/24. Current price is 77.87. The difference is 1.93 per share of potential profit so far.
It looks like the price of Oil is about to go up in a 5th wave on the Daily chart. There is a Strong Attractor just overhead at 79.31. CL has been trying to fo above this line in the sand since 11/07/23 and hasn't made it. The UOB and UIB visually look Flat while the LOB and LIB are sloping upward. I haven't analyzed what that means but I'm guessing we are about to see a test of the overhead Attractor.
Gold (GC)
@GC was down by -14.6 this week and now is sitting at 2024.1.
"I have drawn an Attractor at 2,149 that's been there for some time. When price gets above that level we will go on up. In the meantime we are drifting downward slowly."
That's pretty much what happened. Price went strongly down on Tuesday by about 45 points, made a Doji the next day and then climbed back up. It was short of the beginning of the drop and is now below the Purple DMA.
We are currently in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 02/16/24 at 2,024.1. This signal just occurred so there is no profit in it yet.
Despite news to the contrary, Gold is not dead. Yes, it is right under a Flat DMA and may struggle to get through it. The 21-day MAV is right at the DMA while the 55- is slightly above and the 200-day slightly below current price. There is a SunnyBands Buy signal on the chart that I am ignoring for now. The DMA is flat with Purple on top so it can only move a couple of points before touching the DMA. My students know that a Flat DMA is dangerous and to me signals congestion. I wait for price to rise above the DMA before taking a Long position or below the DMA for a Short.
US T-BONDS 30 yr
@US was down by -1^13 this week and now is sitting at 118^07.
"Bonds are now below the Purple DMA and touching the LIB. The DMA_H is below zero and Purple. The bars are a little short right now and Slope is mathematically Flat. To me that speaks of more downside activity.
SunnyBands are sitting in a Sell signal that was issued on 02/05/24 and confirmed the next day at 120^04. Current price is at 118.21875 for a potential profit of nearly 2 points.
Price is currently sitting right on the LOB, with a wick, after a generally down week. The DMA_H is under the zero-line and Purple,, heading down. Slope is below its zero-line and is Red and sloping down. The DMA itself is Purple with a Slope pf -8 degrees.
To me it all speaks of negative price action to follow.
Stocks
AAPL was down by -6.54 this week and now is sitting at 182.31.
I didn't. Last time Apple Inc was not covered, so this is a new one.
SunnyBands rules would have me Short from 188.32 on 02/08/24. Price is currently at 182.31 so that's about 6 points of potential profit. The prior signal was a Buy on 02/02/24 at 185.85 which went to the entry just mentioned at 188.32 for almost 3 points of potential profit.
AAPL is a great stock for trading, as is TSLA. Lots of cyclical moves up and down. It's great for swing trading with the swings being about 8 - 12 days long.
The DMA has been Flat for about 2 weeks but is now sloping down with Purple on top in the DMA. There is an Attractor on my chart at 180.27. I believe that price will drop, or perhaps meander, to that position. Slope is both below the zero-line (negative) and Red, meaning descending. The lines on the DMA_H are Purple and getting longer. Thus, I'm of a mind that we might even go even beyond that Attractor. Beyond that there is an Attractor well below at 165.44.
AMZN was down by -4.94 this week and now is sitting at 169.51.
"The DMA_Histogram is still Gold as price rises, but it's tentative. The DMA_H lines are flipping back and forth from Red to Gold. That's a bit of a warning that price momentum could be waning."
And wane it did this week. up, down and sideways. If you blur your eyes it looks pretty flat.
The current SunnyBands signal is Long from 01/08/24 at 149.10. Right now we are at 168.57 so that means about 19 points of potential profit. The market is currently flat with price for the past couple of bars just going sideways. Purple is still on top in the DMA but the Slope is beoming not-so-steep. On the Histogram the bars are Red and getting shorter. As they head for the zero-line I'm envisioning price dropping more when the DMA_H is Purple and below the zero-line. The Slope indicator is Red and descending. It won't be long.
On the Daily chart we have been moving sideways, possibly waiting for earnings. Price is astraddle the Attractor I have had on the chart at 168.94. The SunnyBands are slowing down but are not yet Flat although price action is flat. The bars on the DMA_H are Red and descending toward the zero-line,, signalling a potential for them to pass below the zero-line. The Slope is Red and nearly to the zero-line. When and if that happens, price will move on down.
GOOGL was down by -8.48 this week and now is sitting at 140.52.
I didn't. This stock hasn't been in the list until today.
We are in a SunnyBands Sell signal from 02/13/24 at 145.14. It's only been a few days, but with price currently at 140.22, we've made just a bit: almost 5 points potential profit.
SunnyBands are largely sideways, with price well below the Flat DMA and price coincident on the latest Attractor, 55-day MAV and LOB. That's a lot of evidence. I think this one has a little more rooom on the downside. Today's cancle is astraddle the LIB and looks like it could go lower. The DMA_H is Red and quickly appproaching the zero-line. Sloope is negative and below the zero-line at -5.37 degrees.
HUM was down by -3.36 this week and now is sitting at 366.92.
I still don't doubt the upward motion, but it needs to show some strength in the move to break the DMA. SunnyBands sloping downward and a (sort of) rounded bottom might portend a turn in the trend, but I don't think so.
I'm not ready to give up on the current Buy signal from SunnyBands. The signal came in on 01/26/24 at 361.23. With current price at 366.02 that's about 4 points of potential loss in the current trade. DMA is sloping downward, but price is about to hit that level. The upward motion of Slope has languished, and is pretty much Flat. I'm guessing but I think it has some more room on the upside.
The SunnyBands are sloping downward, along with price, and the bands are narrowing. To me that speaks of a breakout. The only question is, will it break up or down? Price is just about touching the 21-day MAV as well as the DMA. Purple is on top in the DMA, but not for long. The DMA_H is just about to cross over the zero-line and turn Gold. To me that means the market will turn upward.
META
META was up by 5.21 this week and now is sitting at 473.32.
"In fact it also looks just straight up. The current price level needs to be broken to the upside and then it's on up to 495. It's not very far the way things have been going."
While it hasn't moved up much, it is not going down either. That's a strong signal to be heads-up for more upward motion. HOWEVER, on the other side of the coin the Yellow Attractor (with some width to it) can either hold price at the current levels or price could bounce off this and continue on up.
I think the next direction will depend on market reports, but there is an Atrtractor overhead at 497. I think that's the next target.
We are Long from 10/30/23 in a "long-term" signal. Recent moves have only enhanced the holdings. The SunnyBands Long signal was at 302.66 and with price currently at 474.84 that's a potential 172 points of potential profit. Imagine that on 100 shares!
META has continued on up, had a great Gap and (though slowly) continued on up after that. Price has stayed above the Yellow boundary and is still looking somewhat positive. Price is right at the UOB and showing some signs of slowing. If we move down at this point we are likely to retrace to the DMA at 452. Price right now is at 471.84 so that could be a 20 point drop if it happens, so be cautious. There is a Fib line at 495.77 so price could easily rise to that level.
MSFT
MSFT was down by -16.49 this week and now is sitting at 404.06.
"Looking at my Natural Numbers chart I see that price is now playing with 390.0, using it both support and resistance. We'll need to break to the next levels (420 or 410) to confirm a direction."
MSTis giving us fits. Now it is in a Sell signal and heading back to 390. We'll see what this week brings.
We are currently not in a potential Sell signal but not quite. It must be confirmed by dropping below the DMA. We went Long on 01/09/24 at 375.79. With price now at 404 we have a potential profit of about 28 points per share.
MSFT is down a bit, dipping to the DMA with Gold still on top. Usually this signals a bounce back up to the upper bands, but I'm not sure this time. If price closes below the Flat DMA then we could be going on down. Price is right at the DMA, which is Flat, and the Histogram has Red bars progressing downward. Slope is almost to the zero-line speaking to more downward action. It's very difficult to predict a future movement at this time; The current information points both directions.
NVDA was up by 4.80 this week and now is sitting at 726.13.
"I kind of expect a bit of a pullback on this stock also. Yet at some point this week I also expect to see NVDA reach for 725."
And reach for 725 it did! And even got to 742. And then pull back slightly, it did. One Red negative bar. Will it close below the UIB? If so, I'm taking profits. If not, then hold on tight because the next stop is above at 814 and change.
We are currently cautiously in a Buy signal on SunnyBands from 12/13/23 at 480.88. With price currently at 727.20 that's pretty good, I'd say. A potential profit of 246 points per share so far. I say cautiously because there is a potential Sell signal on SunnyBands that could take us out of this trade. Another candle closing beneath the UIB could do it.
The SunnyBands are flattening out at the top. That's almost prescient. The lower bands are still moving up but the upper are flattening out. Who knows what Wednesday's Earnings Report will say. We should move sharply one way or the other. I don't dare to speculate at this point. Watch the charts closely.
SBUX was down by -4.08 this week and now is sitting at 93.22.
Boy was I wrong! Here's what I said: "If I had to guess I'd say price that will break the high of the big red bar on 01/31/24 and venture on up at least to break the UIB and possibly then move on up to the UOB."
It didn't do that at all. In fact, price rurned around at the UIB and moved back down toward recent lows.
We just entered a SunnyBands Sell signal confirmed on Valentine's Day at 94.07. Price is now at 93.22 for about a point of potential profit.
SBUX has been up and down but mostly down this week. Price moved down below the DMA (with Purple on top) and Slope just now negative and Red. Price formation looks like it could go further down this next week. On the DMA_H it nearly got to Gold, but turned back and is forming Purple bars again. This says to me that it could go on down. I had my Starbucks today; did you?
TSLA was up by 6.38 this week and now is sitting at 199.95.
"Since price is right at the Flat DMA, we likely won't exceed it immediately."
Last time I also mentioned that TSLA is all over the map.It can go up 100 points and then down the same amount. But, in fact, it did violate the Flat DMA and moved up. This could easily the be the start of more upward movement.
With SunnyBands we were in a Sell signal last we spoke. It is trying to put in a Buy signal, but needed to get above the DMA for that to activate. Now it has; just now. So as far as I'm concerned TSLA is ready to move upward.
SunnyBands had been sloping downward, but are now sideways. The DMA is Flat with Purple barely on top. Slope is also up (Green) and just about to cross over the zero-line. It looks to me like with this in mind that we are at least going to move up to the UIB which is currently at 202.39. Price is currently at 199.95 and that could be a bit of profit.
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The Podcasts of Steve Nison, Gene Inger, Hima Reddy, Brad Matheny, William Eng, Louis Navellier, Cynthia Kase, Howard Getson, Jake Bernstein, Arch Crawford, Henry Weingarten, Robert Pardo, Sherman & Tom McClellan, Stan Ehrlich, Steven Primo, Carolyn Boroden, Markus Heitkoetter, Dan Passarelli, Ted Hearne, Larry Pesavento, Norm Winski, Greg Morris, Larry Williams, Linda Bradford Raschke, Anka Metcalf and Robert Colby are now posted. Enjoy these great interviews. And after that whom would you like to see next?
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WHAT ARE YOU MISSING?
Several features of Sunny Side of the Street are missing from the previous issues. Natural Numbers, Scan of Stocks, and more. What would you like to see me bring back? Comments.
Several features of Sunny Side of the Street are missing from previous issues. Natural Numbers, Scan of Stocks, DMA_H RS, PHW Scan, and more. What would you like to see me bring back? Comments.
