Sunday night May 08, 2022
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This coming week we have several important reports coming out that will likely affect the markets: Tuesday's HPI, Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales and the CPI. Further, we have some important stocks reporting earnings: PLTR, TSN, BNTX, DOTY, MSGE, ENR, NSSC, RIDE, ACM. In addiction, Reports next week are Wholesale Inventories, Small Biz Index, IBD Economic Optimism, FOMC Speaks OPEC meetings, Mortgage Delinquencies, Crude Oil Investories, 10-yr Bond Auction and more.
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Tonight's VantagePoint Prediction is of the Dow.
As you can see, their prediction for Monday is for a higher high and a lower low. The prediction is for a high of 33,189 and a low of 32,256. We closed on Friday at 32,899. The market and the predictions have been getting lower over the past weeks. Tomorrow's prediction is for a DOWN day with a range of about 800 points high to low. Higher prices are predicted from Friday's close and lower prices too. When I see this prediction I wonder which way it will go, up first then down or down first and then up.
The close Friday was at 32,899. The VP moving averages are below the zero line. All three are pointing lower.
The sjh_I_MovAvg_3Lines (21-, 50- and 200-day averages) show that the Dow is now under all three moving averages.
When I get the latest prediction I put horizontal lines on my charts at the predicted high and the predicted low so I can use them as targets. Of course, I look at more predictions than just the Dow. I watch all my stock holdings for predicted up and down moves. It helps me know when to take profits and when to buy more shares.
Check my MoneyMentor home page of this website daily to keep up with the daily predictions of the Dow from VantagePoint. I post them every day after 4pm PST.
While this prediction is good for tomorrow, wouldn't you want to know every day of the week? Of course, the best thing is to run VantagePoint every afternoon, not just on Sunday nights, as I do for this newsletter. And you can always look at the home page of MoneyMentor to see the current VP chart. I recently submitted a Review of VantagePoint for TradersWorld magazine. Look for it in an upcoming issue.
Last Week I Said
Two weeks ago I said My 10% "Recession" indicator is still at 33,257 from the all time high and is thus just below current price action. I would not be surprised if we touch that this week. Not only did it touch it, the Dow fell below it where it still lives.
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The Dow, which consists of 30 industrial stocks, not the high tech ones that I like to trade, was up and down on Friday after a bearish few days, losing 1.063 points on Thursday and not really recovering from it on Friday, closing down just 98 points.
In afterhours trading the Dow futures are down 169 points at 3:50pmPT.
The LowerOuter (LOB) SunnyBand is still beneath current price, at 32,210.62 while the LIB is at 32,875.02. I expect that if it meets the VP prediction the Dow will touch both bands.
My 10% "Recession" indicator is still at 33,257 from the all time high and is thus just above current price action. I would not be surprised if we drop down to the lower VP projection and possibly to the 15% Recession line.
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S&P 500 (ES)
The ES lost points this past week. Now it's a correction. While I was expecting a 4-wave correction I did not expect it to be this deep. We are now below the -10% correction level and sitting right on the -15% line.
The Upper and Lower Outer SunnyBands lie at 4570.12 and 4465.99. Price is right above the LOB and also right at the local low from 2/24/22. It will need to rise above the 10% correction line to continue its move upward, otherwise we are likely to experience more downside action. The DMA_H signalled bearish on 3/31/22 at 4511 and has continued downward from there. Price is currently 4093, a good 418 points down from the initial signal! Yet Who'sOnTop is now Purple and has been since 4/25/22. The DMA_H signalled bearish well in advance of the DMA itself turning Purple.
Don't you think it's time for you to get SunnyBands and the DMA_H to improve your own trading?? Buy Now.
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Since this is a weekly missive, we miss the daily changes to the indicators. Send me an email if you are interested in daily updates. I can have them sent to you directly from my trading platform to your email or your phone. Or better yet, order SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own computer. Of course, like all my products, they work on intraday charts just as well. All symbols, all timeframes. (And prices go up March 1. The more you buy the cheaper it gets.
To get a long-term perspective, let's look at the various positions called for (above) by the consensus of timeframes. Note that the timeframes are all bearish in one form or another. All show Bearish except the monthly, which says Bullish turning down.
It really helps to have these indicators for your own, to take your trading to the next level.
Call me (1-760-908-3070) and I'll send you a 7-day FREE trial of these indicators for TradeStation or MultiCharts for you to see for yourself. Don't want to call? Just fill out your questions and desires on my Comments form and I'll get right back to you.
Stocks
In this section, I like to take a peek at a few of my favorite stocks. I trade what I know. I use Amazon in real life, so I trade AMZN. I use Verizon as my phone carrier, so I trade VZ. I use Google all the time. I use Microsoft software so I trade MSFT and so on. Let's first look at the RadarScreen view of a few stocks.
The columns to the right of the RadarScreen window show a colorful area that tells me at a glance the configuration of my DMA_H on all the stocks in this portfolio. (This indicator is called DMA_R_H, meaning DynamicMovingAverage RadarScreen Histogram.) Green Bearish \/ means the stock has been bearish but is now turning up. Purple \\ means primarily bearish. (These are the colors in the DMA_H and SunnyBands DMA. So, "purple" means Purple is on top in the DMA.) Gold Bullish // means the stock is moving upward. Red Bullish /\ means the stock has been going up but has now turned downward.
Of course, you can sort on any or several of the RadarScreen columns with this indicator. Color coding things makes it easy for me to spot opportunities at a glance. If you would like this indicator for your TS RadarScreen click here.
From this look (below) at the RadarScreen (like a spreadsheet) I can sort by SDMA, which shows me all the bullish stocks on top with Dir showing me which are moving aggressively upward and which have been moving up but have now turned down or the PHW which shows me the most tradable stocks. Call me, I'll explain it. 1-760-908-3070 PST. Or, better yet, email me your TS Customer Nbr and I'll set you up with a FREE 7-day trial.
The table above is my main research tool. It not only has my DMA_H predictions but also shows my PHW indicator (yellow) at the far right and 3 short-term averages calculated with my DMA smoothing function. I call this one RedLite-GreenLite.
When I sort on PHW from highest to lowest tells me which stocks are the most tradable. A stock that just moves slowly from A to B is an investment, not a tradeable (to me). I'm looking for wide swings from which to profit, not just buy-and-hold. This is how I decide what stocks to buy and which to trade. AMZN is still the most tradable, with the highest PHW.
I have this table sorted by net change today. Notice how most stocks are bearish, and those that are showing bullish are red, meaning it was up but now it has turned downward.
To me trading is not about being right! There are lots of advisors and stock pickers out there who boast about getting MSFT at $32 and holding it for gazillions in profit. My trading style is to specialize in a few things and be good at them. The stock pickers never tell you how many they picked right, only the few that were the big winners. I specialize in a handful of stocks for the long swings and the EMini futures for intraday trading.
Click Here to see and listen to the DMA_H Live with BingTicks! ALL NEW: BingTicks has been upgraded to talk! In my voice it tells you your current position in the market, or your strategy's position. It says "Flat," "Long," or "Short" and the number of contracts. And if you have it on a Strategy it says "BuyBuyBuy" or "SellSellSell" in Sam's voice. I wanted it to help me keep my focus on what my chart/position is doing. It works wonders as an attention focusing device. And, it still bings and bongs with each tick of the market. Get it here: BingTicks.
HUM
HUM almost achieved its complete recovery recently on 4/221/22. Just missed it by a "tad". Since then it has joined the rest of the market by retracing down to its 200-day MAV, where it is currently.
You can see that Who'sOnTop is still showing Gold, looking for more bullishness. If you had bought on the Gold signal and got out when the DMA_H signalled bearish you would have had bought at 391.66 and sold on 4/11/22 at 451 for a profit of $60 per share or 15%.
The LOB lies at 412.12 and the LIB is at 423.95. Current price is 430.66. That's another 7 - 18 points or so down in store.
Even though the DMA_H has been flashing Red for a few weeks price had not reacted until 4/22/22. As with all my indicators I wait for price action to confirm the signal and it confirmed on Friday 4/22/22. Current price is stuck in a Pennant formation and is sitting right on, though slightly above, the 200-day MAV. It is below the other two MAVs. The ES is currently down 37 points, suggesting that tomorrow could be another down day. If so, HUM will follow along.
AMZN, is still the stock with the highest PHW, and is very tradeable from a short position. It is currently down 40% from its high. That's dramatic! Current price is 2295.45
The DMA_H signalled bearish on 3/30/22 and has stayed that way since then. Everything depends on what the larger market does now.
Don't forget that they announced a 20 for 1 split coming on or about June 3rd. That's usually bullish news for stock price which will drop into the 114 range when it happens, based on today's price. And that will make it affordable to everyone!
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (chart below) is currently at 4,600 at this juncture.; she lowered her projection Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting a much higher price also. And they have announced a split in the form of a dividend (whatever that means). That should be bullish. And yet, prices continue to languish.
TSLA lost 5.11 points since last week, but suffered a small relative loss of 7.63 points on Friday when the rest of the market was down sharply almost all week.
The 3 MAVs I watch are at 956.40, 943.25, and 910.42. That means that price is well below all three MAVs
The DMA Midline lies at 961.87 while the LIB is at 873.52 and the LOB is at 819.02. Price is currently at 865.65.. The UOB is at 1104.73 and the UIB is at 1050.23. All of that means that TSLA is below its DMA and below the LIB, probably heading for the LOB. Nevertheless it was surprisingly stable this past week considering what the rest of the market did.
But! The DMA_H signalled bearish on 4/6/22 and was confirmed by price acion to the downside. It is not yet bullish. The short entry would have been at 1045 and with current price at 865ish that's 180 points profit per share!! All signalled by the SunnyBands and DMA_H.
Seems to me people should be flocking to TSLA with gas prices right at $6/gal in California--for Regular!
I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped more that 34% from its high.
As you all know, I sold my holdings in TSLA at 1093.87 on 4/5/22. That's 230 points ago. Several readers have asked me to let them know when I buy back in. I'll definitely let you know.
Several months ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that. And it keeps on going, still with the LOB. Current price is down almost 75% from its high.
Price is, of course, below the 21- , 50- and 200-day MAVs. Price is currently at 46.45. This does not bode well for her ETF.
When you think about your own trading success, take a look at what one of the most notable traders (Cathy Wood) has done.
We got a bearish signal from the DMA_H on 4/11/22. And price moved down from there. Since ARKK is below the LOB all I can say is that price is likely to move on downward and take the SunnyBands with it as we explore new lows. As long as price stays under the LOB or between the LOB and LIB price will continue to move downward.
I do think, still, that she over-trades. And bottom fishing is a risky business.
MSFT (closing at 274.73 Friday) is below its 21-, 50- and 200-day MAVs which lie at 283.32, 291.65 and 305.09--about the same as last time. MSFT is now also below its 20% retracement line and nearing local lows. Yet, it bounced slightl up off its LIB on Friday.
The LOB SunnyBand lies at 273.57 while the LIB is at 280.48. The DMA Midline lies at 292.02. Price has been moving steadily, downward and lies just under the 20% retracement line.
Looking at the weekly chart, yes MSFT is below the 20% retracement line but has been steadily sideways at that price level. This is a mixed signal, which could be bearish, and it could be bullish. Watch price action to give us more information during the next week.
Looking at the PHW_Lower indicator below (green vertical lines) you can see that you could have made $45 per share on a short trade from that last signal.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Send me a note telling me what stock you would like to see analyzed next week. If you are reading this I would like some suggestions! Click here to leave me a Comment.
Oil
Crude Light (CL) (closing at 109.77 Friday) after being sharply up and then sharply down and then up and down again with Putin's war and now it is in a large Pennant formation with price range being narrow. Actually, on Thursday it peeked out ever so slightly from the top of the Pennant and has gingerly moved upward. In after hours trading today price is at 109.90. Notice on the chart above that price is nearing the 50% Fib fan line and will likely hit it. The price at the Fib Fan is 115.04.
The UOB of SunnyBands lies at 114.49 and the UIB is at 110.66. Price is right now above the DMA, but the DMA hasn't turned Gold yet. However, it is touching the UIB and looks like it will go on up to the UOB.
Putin will decide where price is going next.
DEFINITIONS
For a FULL Glossary of Trading Terms, click to go to MoneyMentor's Comprehensive Glossary.
MY DIATRIBE FOR THE DAY
IMPORTANT: Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to buy or sell securities of any type, nor is it advice to make any financial decisions. You are in charge of your assets and only you know your risk tolerance and how much you can afford to lose. Never invest/trade with money you cannot afford to lose. This information is intended as educational only. DISCLOSURE.
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Quips and Quotes
"Sunny Harris is unique in the trading industry. Working with her is more like becoming a student than a customer. The name of her website and branding is very accurate: MoneyMentor.com is a spot-on description for Sunny's passion to truly mentor and cultivate your trading and financial skills. Many others in the world of trading and finance are sales-pitch heavy from the initial interaction with them. Sunny's approach is refreshing -- it is an invitation for you to learn, rather than a sales pitch to buy. Having worked with her for many months, I honestly believe Sunny's life philosophy is "you only have what you give". She is trying to give to the aspiring traders of the world a life-time of knowledge. She has condensed her 40-years of experience into a framework for thinking about finance that will surely enrich you. I give Sunny my highest recommendation and hold her in the highest regard. I wish I had become her mentee 20 years ago!"- Justin H. "Impressive Resume! Wow. You have forgotten more than most of us will likely learn. :)" - Kevin S. "You're the best person in the world." - Rich L. "I want to thank you for your books. I have read them all and it has been what has inspired me to have confidence in what I have been trading. This month alone I'm currently up $80k." -Tim A. "U r still a genius!!! Not a single losing trade all week!!!" - Chip S.
"Sunny Harris is unique in the trading industry. Working with her is more like becoming a student than a customer. The name of her website and branding is very accurate: MoneyMentor.com is a spot-on description for Sunny's passion to truly mentor and cultivate your trading and financial skills. Many others in the world of trading and finance are sales-pitch heavy from the initial interaction with them. Sunny's approach is refreshing -- it is an invitation for you to learn, rather than a sales pitch to buy. Having worked with her for many months, I honestly believe Sunny's life philosophy is "you only have what you give". She is trying to give to the aspiring traders of the world a life-time of knowledge. She has condensed her 40-years of experience into a framework for thinking about finance that will surely enrich you. I give Sunny my highest recommendation and hold her in the highest regard. I wish I had become her mentee 20 years ago!"- Justin H.
"Impressive Resume! Wow. You have forgotten more than most of us will likely learn. :)" - Kevin S.
"You're the best person in the world." - Rich L.
"I want to thank you for your books. I have read them all and it has been what has inspired me to have confidence in what I have been trading. This month alone I'm currently up $80k." -Tim A.
"U r still a genius!!! Not a single losing trade all week!!!" - Chip S.
SunnyBands - SunnyBands are a extension of my DMA. The two lines above and two lines below the purple and gold DMA alert me to where the market is going. They are constructed from ATR bands on either side of the DMA, which is my proprietary moving average that avoids most of the whipsaw action experienced by other moving averages.
DMA_H - Sunny"s DynamicMovingAverage in histogram format, using sophisticated math to smooth out the whipsaws.
Of course, my indicators work on any symbol, any time frame. In my own trading I use 1-min & 5-min charts of the ES.
If you aren't already a MoneyMentor Member, please consider joining here. Tell me what you trade and what you'd like to see me add to this newsletter.
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Sunny has been teaching others to trade almost as long as she has been trading. Helping struggling novices over the hurdles is a passion of hers. Sunny has won awards for her teaching and consulting, being #1 in several categories. Sunny can teach you how to use TradeStation & MultiCharts and EasyLanguage and PowerLanguage, TC2000, VantagePoint, NinjaTrader, Genesis Navigator, and MetaStock so you don’t spend months struggling on your own. If you have a concept you want programmed, she can do it for you or teach you how to do it yourself. Click Here.
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