Sunday night February 27, 2022
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Tonight's VantagePoint Prediction is of the Dow.
As you can see, their prediction for Monday is for a high of 34,164 and a low of 33,682. In the light of today's after hours session, I'm skeptical of its accuracy. At this hour the YM (Dow futures) is down 500 points, the NQ is down 327 and the ES is down 94 points.
The close Friday was at 33,994. VP has been VERY accurate lately, predicting the recent downdraft before it started. Except they were a bit off on the last two down moves predictions. That's okay; they are more than 80% correct according to my research. The moving averages are all three turned upward though only one, the short-term, is above the zero line.
When I get the latest prediction I put horizontal lines on my charts at the predicted high and the predicted low so I can use them as targets. Of course, I look at more predictions than just the Dow. I watch all my stock holdings for predicted up and down moves. It helps me know when to take profits and when to buy more shares.
It looks like VP is not tuned into CNBC, watching the war in Ukraine develop. And now Putin has threated to use nuclear weapons. How can one possibly predict that?
Check my MoneyMentor home page of this website daily to keep up with the daily predictions of the Dow from VantagePoint. I post them every day after 4pm PST.
While this prediction is good for tomorrow, wouldn't you want to know every day of the week? Of course, the best thing is to run VantagePoint every afternoon, not just on Sunday nights, as I do for this newsletter. And you can always look at the home page of MoneyMentor to see the current VP chart. I just submitted a Review of VantagePoint for TradersWorld magazine. Look for it in 2 months or so.
Last Week I Said
Last Sunday I said "The DMA_H has flashed Green and then Purple again, speaking to the sideways price action and the flatish DMA. However, the DMA has now turned downward and speaks to still lower prices, if the Dow drops below the 34,000 Attractor." Note: this afternoon price is 647 points below 34,000.
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The Dow, which consists of 30 industrial stocks, not the high tech ones that I like to trade, was mostly down on the week. Monday was a holiday and Tuesday was down, living well below the DMA.
Price is now well below the DMA, with Purple on top where it has been for the last 30 trading days. The DMA_H has flashed Green and then Purple again, speaking to the sideways price action and the flatish DMA. However, the DMA turned downward and speaks to still lower prices. Price touched, and fell below, the LOB on Thursday as the war in Ukraine began. Remarkably it bounced right back up to touch the 34,000 Attractor and head fro the Midline, though it didn't make it all the way.
The LowerOuter SunnyBand sits at 32,554 while the UppeOuter band is at 35,954. That's a 3,400 point range. I find that price tends to test these extremes to the downside if it goes below the DMA and to the upside if it goes above the DMA. I'm expecting a volatile week!
Friday's candle had a range of 1,272 points. A big day! Today's after hours candle is fully within the Friday bar and is down 476 points as I write this.
I have a new indicators I call "Recession" which uses OOEL to draw a horizontal line from the highest high down 20% (or x% via inputs). I used an input of 10% and found that the Dow traded right down to it and bounced. It may be headed for this 10% down line again. This indicator will be in an Example in the text of "EasyLanguage OOEL Made Easy!" If you want it now, give me a call. It's Free for the asking.
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S&P 500 (ES)
The ES was like the Dow, down most of the week, and then up on Friday, finishing the week slightly higher than it opened on Tuesday.
The Outer SunnyBands lie at 4,664 and 4,152. To resume an uptrend we need to be headed for the UpperOuter band. The 10% "recession" lies at 4,327 not too far above where we are right now. Friday's price took us above the 10% down line, but today we are back below it.
Price on the ES is caught in a wide Pennant formation, shown on the chart above. Traditional Technical Analysis says that pennants are resolved in the direction of the previous trend--which has been down for weeks.
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Since this is a weekly missive, we miss the daily changes to the indicators. Send me an email if you are interested in daily updates. I can have them sent to you directly from my trading platform to your email or your phone. Or better yet, order SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own computer. Of course, like all my products, they work on intraday charts just as well. All symbols, all timeframes. (And prices go up March 1. So NOW is a good time to get in at lower prices. The more you buy the cheaper it gets.)
To get a long-term perspective, let's look at the various positions called for by the consensus of timeframes. Note that the timeframes are all bearish in one form or another. All show Bearish except the monthly, which says Bullish turning down.
It really helps to have these indicators for your own, to take your trading to the next level.
Call me (1-760-908-3070) and I'll send you a 7-day FREE trial of these indicators for you to see for yourself. Don't want to call? Just fill out your questions and desires on my Comments form and I'll get right back to you.
Stocks
In this section, I like to take a peek at a few of my favorite stocks. I trade what I know. I use Amazon in real life, so I trade AMZN. I use Verizon as my phone carrier, so I trade VZ. I use Google all the time. I use Microsoft software so I trade MSFT and so on. Let's first look at the RadarScreen view of a few stocks.
The columns to the right of the RadarScreen window show a colorful area that tells me at a glance the configuration of my DMA_H on all the stocks in this portfolio. (This indicator is called DMA_R_H, meaning DynamicMovingAverage RadarScreen Histogram.) Green Bearish \/ means the stock has been bearish but is now turning up. Purple \\ means primarily bearish. (These are the colors in the DMA_H and SunnyBands DMA. So, "purple" means Purple is on top in the DMA.) Gold Bullish // means the stock is moving upward. Red Bullish /\ means the stock has been going up but has now turned downward.
Of course, you can sort on any or several of the RadarScreen columns with this indicator. Color coding things makes it easy for me to spot opportunities at a glance. If you would like this indicator for your TS RadarScreen click here.
From this look (below) at the RadarScreen (like a spreadsheet) I can sort by SDMA, which shows me all the bullish stocks on top with Dir showing me which are moving aggressively upward and which have been moving up but have now turned down or the PHW which shows me the most tradable stocks. Call me, I'll explain it. 1-760-908-3070 PST. Or, better yet, email me your TS Customer Nbr and I'll set you up with a FREE 7-day trial.
The table above is my main research tool. It not only has my DMA_H predictions but also shows my PHW indicator (yellow) at the far right and 3 short-term averages calculated with my DMA smoothing function. I call this one RedLite-GreenLite.
When I sort on PHW from highest to lowest tells me which stocks are the most tradable. A stock that just moves slowly from A to B is an investment, not a tradeable (to me). I'm looking for wide swings from which to profit, not just buy-and-hold. This is how I decide what stocks to buy and which to trade. AMZN is still the most tradable, with the highest PHW.
Trending stock KHC (Kraft Heinz) shows all green cells in the 3MAVs columns, meaning not only is it trending but it is above the 20-, 50-, and 200-day MAVs. It has broken out of down-sloping trend line and may react to refugees from Ukraine needing food aid. I use this sort to find bullish stocks in a down market. There are still some!
Stock Sort
These stocks, showing True in the Scan, are all still above all 3 moving averages. If you are looking for something to buy, this is the way to do it.
To me trading is not about being right! There are lots of advisors and stock pickers out there who boast about getting MSFT at $32 and holding it for gazillions in profit. My trading style is to specialize in a few things and be good at them. The stock pickers never tell you how many they picked right, only the few that were the big winners. I specialize in a handful of stocks for the long swings and the EMini futures for intraday trading.
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HUM
HUM has drifted sideways from its recovery from the 104 point, 1-day drop on 1/6/22. For the last 2 weeks it has been held down by the 23.6% Fibonacci extension line and can't seem to make it through it.
You can see that Who'sOnTop is still showing Gold, looking for more bullishness. Yet, the DMA_H was flashing Red for the whole week and price is now above the 3 MAVs (20, 50, and 300-day). Further, however, price is sitting above both DMA lines. It's difficult to tell what the next week will bring. Be on your toes for moves in either direction. It is moreover difficult what war with Russia will do to the US economy.
AMZN, is still the stock with the highest PHW, with Bookings Holdings (BKNG) second, with AMZN dramatically dropping on Thursday 2/3/22 only to completely recover and more the stock was nevertheless trading sideways to lower last week. On Thursday AMZN echoed the dramatic stock market bounce from lows to close up on the day. Friday was even higher, but has not touched the bottom of the channel it was in.
While AMZN dropped straight through the channel it was in "forever" last week it broke into the channel and back out again. Right now it sits well under the former channel.
The DMA is flat at 11 degrees, but Purple is again on top. I am nevertheless skeptical of higher moves since the overall market can easily influence this situation and take AMZN on downward. Price is above the DMA somewhat but who knows what shocks the market will experience from Putin's threat of nuclear war.
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (below) is currently at 5,000 at this juncture. Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting 5,000 also.
The DMA Midline lies at 949.79 while the LIB is at 887.88 and the LOB is at 853.49. Price is currently at 852. Note that price is BELOW the LOB. The DMA is sloping downward and Purple is of course on top. To me it looks like price is heading for the low of 1/28/22 at 846 and change. The 200-day MAV lies at 829.27, 22 points lower. If we break through the 200-day MAV we are going lower.
VantagePoint is calling for more upside action tomorrow, into the 818 level. Last week it dropped to a low of 700. Personally I think this is a good time to pick up some shares at a good price. Elon Musk is activating the satellites he has in place for Internet use in Ukraine.
Nevertheless, I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped more that 34% from its high.
Several months ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that. Price is still beneath all 3 moving averages but was up on Thursday and Friday, so that it is now above the LIB. Purple is still on top but the DMA is flat at -10 degrees.
Maybe ARKK is putting in a bottom. I'm not buying in just yet, though. And I'm sorry to say my VP subscription does not cover ARKK.
MSFT (closing at 297.31 Friday) is right below its 20-day MAV and could break through this week, if the rest of the market cooperates. I see it all depending on what Putin does next and how we react to what he does.
The LOB SunnyBand lies at 280 while the LIB is at 288. The DMA Midline lies at 300, not a far stretch. In a normal market it could easily break that level. But today's market is not normal. Price is also stalled at the 76.4% Fib line. It will need to break through both to announce any new upward movement.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Send me a note telling me what stock you would like to see analyzed next week. If you are reading this I would like some suggestions! Click here to leave me a Comment.
Oil
Crude Light (CL) (closing at 91.59 Friday) is up in after hours trading tonight with a high of 99.10. Makes sense with tense and changing world order.
The UOB of SunnyBands lies at 100.54 and the UIB is at 96.30. Price was between them earlier today but is now just under the UIB with price at 96.07. On a 15-min chart price is stuck in indecision, surrounded by a pennant formation. Again, traditional wisdom says it will continue the previous up move.
BitCoin is down 1,235 in afterhours trading this evening. Bitcoin used to be countertrend to the stock market, but no longer. As goes the S&P so goes Bitcoin. I am wondering who is leading whom now.
I still believe it will be widely accepted as currency, though I have no idea when. Price sits on the LIB (38,476), after touching both the UIB and UOB over a week ago. The DMA MidLine is at 41,176 and serves as an Attractor offering resistance. The DMA_H signalled Bearish on Thursday and indeed price is lower in afterhours trading this evening.
BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
BitCoin is down 950 points in after hours trading this evening, currently at 38,165. Bitcoin used to be countertrend to the stock market, but no longer. As goes the S&P so goes Bitcoin. I am wondering who is leading whom now.
Both are in lock-step this evening on a 15-minute chart trying to close the gap that happened at the opein of the after hours session, 3:00pm PST.
I still believe it will be widely accepted as currency, though I have no idea when.
Price sits on the LIB (37,260), after touching both the UIB and UOB over a week ago. The DMA MidLine is at 40,518 and serves as an Attractor offering resistance. The DMA_H signalled Bearish on Thursday and indeed price is lower in afterhours trading this evening.
I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Etherium) since its low in May 2021. I'm still holding a nice profit in ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens.
Price is at 2,677, sitting right beneath the MidLine and is down 34 points. The DMA is flat to sloping slightly downward which could act as support or resistance, either one. There is a strong Attractor that lies at 2,631 with which current price is "playing." Price this evening has straddled it above and below. The DMA Midline is at 40,518 and the LIB is at 37,260 while the LOB is at 35,098.
I'm wondering how much of the anonymous currency Russia/Putin control.
Gold
Gold is currently up another 27 points, at 1,915. It is sitting firmly on the 23.5% Fib line from which it could break out or find resistance.
I have been calling for gold to reach $2,000 for months in this Newsletter. It's almost there.
The Midline is at 1,874 and the UOB is at 1,956 with the UIB at 1,925. I believe we will hit the 1,909 price and go higher. I still think we will see 2,000 some day soon. I know I have been in disagreement with other pundits who have said gold is no longer interesting.
Wednesday (Feb 2, 2022) I gave a talk at Traders Corner. All who attended and wanted the slides, they are posted under Membership. Be sure to become a Member for free and login to have access to the presentation.
Bonds
Bonds were mostly sideways this week. In after hours trading this evening price has opened higher and drifted back down so that bonds are now down 11/32nds. Price is a 155-11/32. The Midline is at 155.34 and price is just touching the flat DMA. Bonds go down, yields go up. Interest rates are expected to go up in a few days/weeks. Has the market already built that into price? Will it be a non-event when it happens? We shall see. Many pundits are saying that the Fed will lighten its tightening due to the conflict in Ukraine and the lower stock market, which is taking care of inflation on its own.
DEFINITIONS
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MY DIATRIBE FOR THE DAY
IMPORTANT: Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to buy or sell securities of any type, nor is it advice to make any financial decisions. You are in charge of your assets and only you know your risk tolerance and how much you can afford to lose. Never invest/trade with money you cannot afford to lose. This information is intended as educational only. DISCLOSURE.
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Products
All subscribers to my Sunny Side of the Street newsletter, and Members of MoneyMentor, are eligible for a 10% discount on my products. Call if you are interested. (760) 908-3070 PST. I will be raising prices March 1, so if you want any of my indicatorsnow is the time before prices go up.
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Quips and Quotes
"Thanks very much; I do like hearing from you [, Sunny]. Thanks to SunnyBands I now have a net worth above $1.25 Million." -Don T. [Editor's note: Don started 3 years ago with a $25,000 account. And, he told me yesterday that his account is now well over $2 Million.] "This is a very powerful tool! It's better that what I've had. I'm going to scrap my old tools. It's speaking to me. I kicked butt today making $1,500 trading crude, gold and the S&P." (re SunnyBands) -Tony C.
"I want to thank you for your books. I have read them all and it has been what has inspired me to have confidence in what I have been trading. This month alone I'm currently up $80k." -Tim A.
"Impressive Resume! Wow. You have forgotten more than most of us will likely learn. :)" - Kevin S.
"U r still a genius!!! Not a single losing trade all week!!!" - Chip S.
SunnyBands - SunnyBands are a extension of my DMA. The two lines above and two lines below the purple and gold DMA alert me to where the market is going. They are constructed from ATR bands on either side of the DMA, which is my proprietary moving average that avoids most of the whipsaw action experienced by other moving averages.
DMA_H - Sunny"s DynamicMovingAverage in histogram format, using sophisticated math to smooth out the whipsaws.
Of course, my indicators work on any symbol, any time frame. In my own trading I use 1-min & 5-min charts of the ES.
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DISCLAIMER: Trading involves a significant and substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. You should only trade with money you can afford to lose. There is no guarantee that you will profit from your trading activity and it is possible that you may lose all of, or if trading on margin more than, your investment. Nothing in this website is an offer to buy or sell securities, futures, or instruments of any type. Some of the results shown may be based on simulated performance. SIMULATED OR HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS HAVE CERTAIN INHERENT LIMITATIONS. UNLIKE THE RESULTS SHOWN IN AN ACTUAL PERFORMANCE RECORD, SUCH RESULTS DO NOT REPRESENT ACTUAL TRADING. ALSO, BECAUSE THE TRADES HAVE NOT ACTUALLY BEEN EXECUTED, THE RESULTS MY HAVE UNDER OR OVER-COMPENSATED FR THE IMPACT, IF ANY, OF CERTAIN MARKET FACTORS, SUCH AS LACK OF LIQUIDITY. SIMULATED OR HYPOTHETICAL PROGRAMS IN GENERAL ARE ALSO SUBJECT TO THE FACT THAT THEY ARE DESIGNED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future performance. This brief statement cannot disclose all the risks and other significant aspects of trading. You should carefully study trading and consider whether such activity is suitable for you in light of your circumstances and financial resources before you trade.
