Sunday night March 13, 2022
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Tonight's VantagePoint Prediction is of the Dow.
As you can see, their prediction for Monday is for a high of 33,399 and a low of 32,836. Lower and lower predictions each week. Tomorrow's prediction is for a down day, but not much lower than Friday's low.
The close Friday was at 32,994. VP has been VERY accurate lately, predicting the recent downdraft before it started. Except they were a bit off on the last two down moves predictions. That's okay; they are more than 80% correct according to my research. The moving averages are all three turned upward though only the short-term MAV is above the zero-line, and while it is up, it is pointing slightly downward.
When I get the latest prediction I put horizontal lines on my charts at the predicted high and the predicted low so I can use them as targets. Of course, I look at more predictions than just the Dow. I watch all my stock holdings for predicted up and down moves. It helps me know when to take profits and when to buy more shares.
Check my MoneyMentor home page of this website daily to keep up with the daily predictions of the Dow from VantagePoint. I post them every day after 4pm PST.
While this prediction is good for tomorrow, wouldn't you want to know every day of the week? Of course, the best thing is to run VantagePoint every afternoon, not just on Sunday nights, as I do for this newsletter. And you can always look at the home page of MoneyMentor to see the current VP chart. I just submitted a Review of VantagePoint for TradersWorld magazine. Look for it in 2 months or so.
Last Week I Said
Last Sunday I said "I find that price tends to test these extremes to the downside if it goes below the DMA and to the upside if it goes above the DMA. I'm expecting another volatile week!" And indeed it was, although looking back it was largely sideways from a trader's perspective.
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The Dow, which consists of 30 industrial stocks, not the high tech ones that I like to trade, was mostly sideways from my perspective, though I was mostly short.
Price is still well below the DMA, with Purple on top where it has been for the last 35 trading days. The DMA_H has flashed Purple and then Green again, speaking to the sideways price action. The DMA Midline is now sloping downward and speaks to still lower prices. Price was mostly below the 10% "recession" indicator where it still lies. Price tried several times to rise above it but couldn't. Further, price couldn't break below the LOB, though it is sitting on the LIB all week. That, with all the negative news, is a positive sign.
The LowerOuter (LOB) SunnyBand sits at 32,441 while the UpperOuter band is at 35,289. That's a 604 point range. I find that price tends to test these extremes to the downside if it goes below the DMA and to the upside if it goes above the DMA. I'm expecting another volatile week!
I have a new indicators I call "Recession" which uses OOEL to draw a horizontal line from the highest high down 20% (or x% via inputs). I used an input of 10% and found that the Dow traded right down to it and this week has broken beneath it and stayed there. This indicator will be in an Example in the text of "EasyLanguage OOEL Made Easy!" If you want it now, give me a call. It's Free for the asking.
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S&P 500 (ES)
The ES was like the Dow, sideways most of the week. It is sitting inside a Pennant formation that lasted the whole week. This is a sign of indecision and congestion which could continue for some time. In afterhours trading this evening the ES is up 20 points.
The Outer SunnyBands lie at 4,591 and 4,099. To resume an uptrend we need to be headed for the UpperOuter band. The 15% "recession" lies at 4,081 and the 10% line is at 4,326. We are below the 10% line and above the 15% though price made an attempt to fall to the lower retracement and finished the week with the high touching the 10% line.
Price on the ES is caught in a wide Pennant formation, shown on the chart above. Traditional Technical Analysis says that pennants are resolved in the direction of the previous trend--which has been down for weeks.
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Since this is a weekly missive, we miss the daily changes to the indicators. Send me an email if you are interested in daily updates. I can have them sent to you directly from my trading platform to your email or your phone. Or better yet, order SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own computer. Of course, like all my products, they work on intraday charts just as well. All symbols, all timeframes. (And prices go up March 1. The more you buy the cheaper it gets.
To get a long-term perspective, let's look at the various positions called for by the consensus of timeframes. Note that the timeframes are all bearish in one form or another. All show Bearish except the monthly, which says Bullish turning down.
It really helps to have these indicators for your own, to take your trading to the next level.
Call me (1-760-908-3070) and I'll send you a 7-day FREE trial of these indicators for you to see for yourself. Don't want to call? Just fill out your questions and desires on my Comments form and I'll get right back to you.
Stocks
In this section, I like to take a peek at a few of my favorite stocks. I trade what I know. I use Amazon in real life, so I trade AMZN. I use Verizon as my phone carrier, so I trade VZ. I use Google all the time. I use Microsoft software so I trade MSFT and so on. Let's first look at the RadarScreen view of a few stocks.
The columns to the right of the RadarScreen window show a colorful area that tells me at a glance the configuration of my DMA_H on all the stocks in this portfolio. (This indicator is called DMA_R_H, meaning DynamicMovingAverage RadarScreen Histogram.) Green Bearish \/ means the stock has been bearish but is now turning up. Purple \\ means primarily bearish. (These are the colors in the DMA_H and SunnyBands DMA. So, "purple" means Purple is on top in the DMA.) Gold Bullish // means the stock is moving upward. Red Bullish /\ means the stock has been going up but has now turned downward.
Of course, you can sort on any or several of the RadarScreen columns with this indicator. Color coding things makes it easy for me to spot opportunities at a glance. If you would like this indicator for your TS RadarScreen click here.
From this look (below) at the RadarScreen (like a spreadsheet) I can sort by SDMA, which shows me all the bullish stocks on top with Dir showing me which are moving aggressively upward and which have been moving up but have now turned down or the PHW which shows me the most tradable stocks. Call me, I'll explain it. 1-760-908-3070 PST. Or, better yet, email me your TS Customer Nbr and I'll set you up with a FREE 7-day trial.
The table above is my main research tool. It not only has my DMA_H predictions but also shows my PHW indicator (yellow) at the far right and 3 short-term averages calculated with my DMA smoothing function. I call this one RedLite-GreenLite.
When I sort on PHW from highest to lowest tells me which stocks are the most tradable. A stock that just moves slowly from A to B is an investment, not a tradeable (to me). I'm looking for wide swings from which to profit, not just buy-and-hold. This is how I decide what stocks to buy and which to trade. AMZN is still the most tradable, with the highest PHW.
I have this table sorted on the DMA showing lots of bearish stock that are turning upward. Notice the abundance of Green cells with the " \/" meaning it was going down but it has now turned upward.
Stock Sort
These stocks, showing True in the Scan, are all still above all 3 moving averages. If you are looking for a stock to buy, this is the way to do it.
To me trading is not about being right! There are lots of advisors and stock pickers out there who boast about getting MSFT at $32 and holding it for gazillions in profit. My trading style is to specialize in a few things and be good at them. The stock pickers never tell you how many they picked right, only the few that were the big winners. I specialize in a handful of stocks for the long swings and the EMini futures for intraday trading.
Click Here to see and listen to the DMA_H Live with BingTicks! ALL NEW: BingTicks has been upgraded to talk! In my voice it tells you your current position in the market, or your strategy's position. It says "Flat," "Long," or "Short" and the number of contracts. And if you have it on a Strategy it says "BuyBuyBuy" or "SellSellSell" in Sam's voice. I wanted it to help me keep my focus on what my chart/position is doing. It works wonders as an attention focusing device. And, it still bings and bongs with each tick of the market. Get it here: BingTicks.
HUM
HUM has drifted sideways from its recovery from the 104 point, 1-day drop on 1/6/22. For the last 2 weeks it has been held down by the 23.6% Fibonacci extension line and this week it broke through to the upside.
You can see that Who'sOnTop is still showing Gold, looking for more bullishness. If you had bought on the Gold signal and got out today you would have had bought at 391.66 and sold Friday at 426.12 for a profit of 34.46 per share or 8.7%.
Yet, the DMA_H was flashing Red for the whole week and price is now below the 20 & 300-day MAVs, but above the 50-day. Further, however, price is sitting right on both DMA lines. It's difficult to tell what the next week will bring. Be on your toes for moves in either direction. It is moreover difficult what war with Russia will do to the US economy.
AMZN, is still the stock with the highest PHW, with Bookings Holdings (BKNG) second, with AMZN popping up on a gap of 128 points on Thursday on the Wednesday after the close announcement that they are going to introduce a 20-1 split. Great news! It will be affordable, could enter the S&P 500 and you'll hold a lot more shares as it continues upward.
The DMA is flat to down and Purple is still on top. The whole market in general seems to follow as doubt and fear set in, so if the general market keeps trending down, so will AMZN.
The LOB lies at 2,694 and the UOB is at 3,191. Price currently is astraddle the Midline which is at 2,943. I expect it will rise to the Attractor at 3,088 in the next week or so.
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (below) is currently at 5,000 at this juncture. Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting 5,000 also.
The 3 MAVs I watch are at 846, 931 and 845. That means the 20-day and 200-day are overlapping. Price is at 793 so it would have to rise to those levels to make any progress.
The DMA Midline lies at 887 while the LIB is at 887.88 and the LOB is at 821. Price is currently at 793. Note that price is between the LOB and the LIB. The DMA is sloping downward and Purple is of course on top. To me it looks like price is heading for the low of 1/28/22 at 846 and change.
VantagePoint is calling for a low of 769 tomorrow. Seems to me people should be flocking to TSLA with gas prices above $6/gal in California.
I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped more that 34% from its high.
Several months ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that. Price is still beneath all 3 moving averages . It is at its lowest price since 2019. I don't give up on her yet however. I don't think it was a fluke that she had such good returns for her investors in the past; I think she's a very smart woman but investing in leading-edge technoligies that are currently being beaten down by inflation, stagnant supply chains and general fear of growth stocks.
I do think, however, that she over-trades.
MSFT (closing at 280 Friday) is below its 20-and 50-day MAVs which lie at 316 and 292. The 200-day MAV is at 189.56. That's quite a spread and MSFT is still holding strongly above them even though it is currently down.
The LOB SunnyBand lies at 269 while the LIB is at 285. The DMA Midline lies at 311, not a far stretch. In a normal market it could easily break that level. But today's market is not normal. Price is between the two lower SBands and could easily break above the 50-day MAV if the general market shows any promise this week.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Send me a note telling me what stock you would like to see analyzed next week. If you are reading this I would like some suggestions! Click here to leave me a Comment.
Oil
Crude Light (CL) (closing at 109.33 Friday after being sharply up earlier) is down 1.96 in after hours trading tonight with a high of 109.72 and a low of 106.51. Makes sense with tense and changing world order. After being sharply up with the advent of Putin's war it dropped 23 points on Wednesday.
The UOB of SunnyBands lies at 129.12 and the UIB is at 120.50. Price is right now in a Pennant formation and sitting on the DMA Midline which is decidedly flat. Price is not moving very much, even on the 15-minute chart.
Putin will decide where price is going next.
BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
BitCoin is down 760 points in afterhours trading this evening.
BTC has been steadily down since its high on 11/21/21 at 69,960 and now sits at 37,685. That's a dramatic loss. Biden says he is looking into Crypto currencies now. Probably with an eye to regulation. That could easily account for the price's low.
While BTC and ES have been in lockstep over the recent past, they are not today. The ES has had up moves while BTC has not; it has been on a steady downward slide.
I still believe it will be widely accepted as currency, though I have no idea when. And I certainly don't know where regulation would take it.
Price currently sits on the LIB (37,346), after touching both the UIB and UOB over a week ago. The DMA MidLine is at 40,502 and serves as an Attractor offering resistance. The DMA_H signalled Bullish followed by Bearish several times this past week but essentially it is just moving sideways.
I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Etherium) since its low in May 2021. I'm still holding a nice profit in ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens.
Price is at 2,527, down 44 points in afterhours trading. It is not down a lot however and sits right beneath the LIB which is at 2,749 . If it goes down this coming week it will likely move the SunnyBands from their sideways channel to lower that the LOB which is at 2,391.
On the daily chart price is hinging in between the Attractors of a Pennant formation that happppend on the 24th of February and on the weekly chart is currently in a Pennant formation that started forming 4 days ago. That always acts to constrain the congestion for a while.
I'm wondering how much of the anonymous currency Russia/Putin control. I've been saying this since Feb 24 and only this week the news is now talking about it.
Gold
Gold is currently down by 8.9 points coming off the high of 2,078.8. I still think there is more room on the upside! In the Podcast interview this weekend (which will be posted Tuesday afternoon) Sam & I talked to Tim Slater, of CompuTrac and TAG Seminars fame. He said that China and Russia have been actively purchasing Gold and running the price up. He stated that he thinks we will see more world strife and more of a turn to gold, even up to $5,000. Click here on Tuesday to listen to the Podcast.
I have been calling for gold to reach $2,000 for months in this Newsletter. It got there and bested it this week only to drop back to 1,976 in the last few days.
The Midline is at 1,942 and the UOB is at 2,041 with the UIB at 2,003. I believe we will hit the 2,003 price and go higher. World strife adds to the attractiveness of gold.
Thursday (March 10, 2022) I gave a talk at TimingResearch/TradeOutLoud. All who attended and wanted the slides, they are posted under Membership. Be sure to become a Member for free and login to have access to the presentation.
Bonds
Bonds were mostly down this week. In after hours trading this evening price has opened lower by 20/32nds and drifted on down since the open at 155-8/32. Price is a 154-15/32 right now. The Midline is at 156.25 and price is under the flat DMA. The LIB is at 153 and the LOB is at 150.90. I'm thinking that's where we will go next.
On the daily chart price looks sideways since Thursday. Bonds go down, yields go up. Interest rates are expected to go up in a few days/weeks. Has the market already built that into price? Will it be a non-event when it happens? We shall see. Many pundits are saying that the Fed will lighten its tightening due to the conflict in Ukraine and the lower stock market, which is taking care of inflation on its own. The DMA_H signalled Short on 3/8/22 and has been down ever since.
DEFINITIONS
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MY DIATRIBE FOR THE DAY
IMPORTANT: Nothing in this newsletter is an offer to buy or sell securities of any type, nor is it advice to make any financial decisions. You are in charge of your assets and only you know your risk tolerance and how much you can afford to lose. Never invest/trade with money you cannot afford to lose. This information is intended as educational only. DISCLOSURE.
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Products
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Quips and Quotes
"Thanks very much; I do like hearing from you [, Sunny]. Thanks to SunnyBands I now have a net worth above $1.25 Million." -Don T. [Editor's note: Don started 3 years ago with a $25,000 account. And, he told me yesterday that his account is now well over $2 Million.] "This is a very powerful tool! It's better that what I've had. I'm going to scrap my old tools. It's speaking to me. I kicked butt today making $1,500 trading crude, gold and the S&P." (re SunnyBands) -Tony C.
"I want to thank you for your books. I have read them all and it has been what has inspired me to have confidence in what I have been trading. This month alone I'm currently up $80k." -Tim A.
"Impressive Resume! Wow. You have forgotten more than most of us will likely learn. :)" - Kevin S.
"U r still a genius!!! Not a single losing trade all week!!!" - Chip S.
SunnyBands - SunnyBands are a extension of my DMA. The two lines above and two lines below the purple and gold DMA alert me to where the market is going. They are constructed from ATR bands on either side of the DMA, which is my proprietary moving average that avoids most of the whipsaw action experienced by other moving averages.
DMA_H - Sunny"s DynamicMovingAverage in histogram format, using sophisticated math to smooth out the whipsaws.
Of course, my indicators work on any symbol, any time frame. In my own trading I use 1-min & 5-min charts of the ES.
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Sunny has been teaching others to trade almost as long as she has been trading. Helping struggling novices over the hurdles is a passion of hers. Sunny has won awards for her teaching and consulting, being #1 in several categories. Sunny can teach you how to use TradeStation & MultiCharts and EasyLanguage and PowerLanguage, TC2000, VantagePoint, NinjaTrader, Genesis Navigator, and MetaStock so you don’t spend months struggling on your own. If you have a concept you want programmed, she can do it for you or teach you how to do it yourself. Click Here.
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