Sunday night April 24, 2022
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Tonight's VantagePoint Prediction is of the Dow.
As you can see, their prediction for Monday is for a high of 34,515 and a low of 33,276. We closed on Friday at 33,813. The market and the predictions have been getting lower over the past weeks. Tomorrow's prediction is for a DOWN day with a range of about 1,200 points high to low. Higher prices are predicted from Friday's close and lower prices too. When I see this prediction I wonder which way it will go, up first then down or down first and then up.
The close Friday was at 33,818. The VP moving averages are below the zero line. All three are pointing lower.
The sjh_I_MovAvg_3Lines (21-, 50- and 200-day averages) show that the Dow is now under its 200-day MAV and below the 50-day MAV AND below the 21-day MAV.
When I get the latest prediction I put horizontal lines on my charts at the predicted high and the predicted low so I can use them as targets. Of course, I look at more predictions than just the Dow. I watch all my stock holdings for predicted up and down moves. It helps me know when to take profits and when to buy more shares.
Check my MoneyMentor home page of this website daily to keep up with the daily predictions of the Dow from VantagePoint. I post them every day after 4pm PST.
While this prediction is good for tomorrow, wouldn't you want to know every day of the week? Of course, the best thing is to run VantagePoint every afternoon, not just on Sunday nights, as I do for this newsletter. And you can always look at the home page of MoneyMentor to see the current VP chart. I recently submitted a Review of VantagePoint for TradersWorld magazine. Look for it in an upcoming issue.
Last Week I Said
Last Sunday I said the DMA_Histogram is Red, signalling the possibility of more action to the downside.
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The Dow, which consists of 30 industrial stocks, not the high tech ones that I like to trade, was dramatically DOWN on Friday, dropping more than 980 points, closing at 33,813.
The DMA_H signalled a bearish position on 3/31/22 with price then at 34,678. The last two days have signalled bearish however. I expect tomorrow to be a bit lower but continued recovery to continue.
The LowerOuter (LOB) SunnyBand is still beneath current price, at 33,230 while the LIB is at 33,678. I expect that if it meets the VP prediction it will touch those bands.
My 10% "Recession" indicator is still at 33,257 from the all time high and is thus just below current price action. I would not be surprised if we touch that this week.
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S&P 500 (ES)
The ES lost 120 points this past week. Now it's a correction . While I was expecting a 4-wave correction I did not expect it to be this deep. We are now below the 10% correction level and heading toward the 15% line (shown on the chart above).
The Upper and Lower Outer SunnyBands lie at 4604.64 and 4251.89. Price is right at the LOB and also below the local low from 2/11/22. It will need to rise above the 10% correction line to continue its move upward, otherwise we are likely to experience more downside action. The DMA_H signalled bearish on 3/31/22 and has continued downward from there. Yet Who'sOnTop is still Gold, meaning that the Gold line of the DMA is above the Purple. That's a bit curious overall, but the DMA is also flat.
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Since this is a weekly missive, we miss the daily changes to the indicators. Send me an email if you are interested in daily updates. I can have them sent to you directly from my trading platform to your email or your phone. Or better yet, order SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own computer. Of course, like all my products, they work on intraday charts just as well. All symbols, all timeframes. (And prices go up March 1. The more you buy the cheaper it gets.
To get a long-term perspective, let's look at the various positions called for by the consensus of timeframes. Note that the timeframes are all bearish in one form or another. All show Bearish except the monthly, which says Bullish turning down.
It really helps to have these indicators for your own, to take your trading to the next level.
Call me (1-760-908-3070) and I'll send you a 7-day FREE trial of these indicators for you to see for yourself. Don't want to call? Just fill out your questions and desires on my Comments form and I'll get right back to you.
Stocks
In this section, I like to take a peek at a few of my favorite stocks. I trade what I know. I use Amazon in real life, so I trade AMZN. I use Verizon as my phone carrier, so I trade VZ. I use Google all the time. I use Microsoft software so I trade MSFT and so on. Let's first look at the RadarScreen view of a few stocks.
The columns to the right of the RadarScreen window show a colorful area that tells me at a glance the configuration of my DMA_H on all the stocks in this portfolio. (This indicator is called DMA_R_H, meaning DynamicMovingAverage RadarScreen Histogram.) Green Bearish \/ means the stock has been bearish but is now turning up. Purple \\ means primarily bearish. (These are the colors in the DMA_H and SunnyBands DMA. So, "purple" means Purple is on top in the DMA.) Gold Bullish // means the stock is moving upward. Red Bullish /\ means the stock has been going up but has now turned downward.
Of course, you can sort on any or several of the RadarScreen columns with this indicator. Color coding things makes it easy for me to spot opportunities at a glance. If you would like this indicator for your TS RadarScreen click here.
From this look (below) at the RadarScreen (like a spreadsheet) I can sort by SDMA, which shows me all the bullish stocks on top with Dir showing me which are moving aggressively upward and which have been moving up but have now turned down or the PHW which shows me the most tradable stocks. Call me, I'll explain it. 1-760-908-3070 PST. Or, better yet, email me your TS Customer Nbr and I'll set you up with a FREE 7-day trial.
The table above is my main research tool. It not only has my DMA_H predictions but also shows my PHW indicator (yellow) at the far right and 3 short-term averages calculated with my DMA smoothing function. I call this one RedLite-GreenLite.
When I sort on PHW from highest to lowest tells me which stocks are the most tradable. A stock that just moves slowly from A to B is an investment, not a tradeable (to me). I'm looking for wide swings from which to profit, not just buy-and-hold. This is how I decide what stocks to buy and which to trade. AMZN is still the most tradable, with the highest PHW.
I have this table sorted alphabetically today. Notice how most stocks are bearish, and those that are showing bullish are red, meaning it was up but now it has turned downward.
To me trading is not about being right! There are lots of advisors and stock pickers out there who boast about getting MSFT at $32 and holding it for gazillions in profit. My trading style is to specialize in a few things and be good at them. The stock pickers never tell you how many they picked right, only the few that were the big winners. I specialize in a handful of stocks for the long swings and the EMini futures for intraday trading.
Click Here to see and listen to the DMA_H Live with BingTicks! ALL NEW: BingTicks has been upgraded to talk! In my voice it tells you your current position in the market, or your strategy's position. It says "Flat," "Long," or "Short" and the number of contracts. And if you have it on a Strategy it says "BuyBuyBuy" or "SellSellSell" in Sam's voice. I wanted it to help me keep my focus on what my chart/position is doing. It works wonders as an attention focusing device. And, it still bings and bongs with each tick of the market. Get it here: BingTicks.
HUM
HUM almost achieved its complete recovery recently but Friday, along with the rest of the market, it dropped. HUM lost 16 points on Friday, bringing it back down to its DMA MidLine. Currently it is lower than its 21-day MAV but above both the 50-day and 200-day MAVs.
You can see that Who'sOnTop is still showing Gold, looking for more bullishness. If you had bought on the Gold signal and got out when the DMA_H signalled bearish you would have had bought at 391.66 and sold Friday at 426.12 for a profit of $48.34 per share or 12.3%.
The LOB lies at 422.12 and the LIB is at 430.45. Current price is 444.48. That's another 20 points or so down in store.
Even though the DMA_H has been flashing Red for a few weeks price had not reacted. As with all my indicators I wait for price action to confirm the signal and Friday's move did just that.
AMZN, is still the stock with the highest PHW, with Bookings Holdings (BKNG) second. Last time I said: "AMZN is probably in a 4-wave correction likely to hit the DMA Midline which lies at 3,168"". In fact it dropped considerably lower than that, dropping right to the LOB and now it is at 2,882 in afterhours trading.
The LOB lies at 2,889 and the UOB is at 3,335. Obviously it is below all 3 MAVs and furthermore AMZN is more than 20% down from its high.
The DMA_H signalled bearish on 3/30/22 and has stayed that way since then. Everything depends on what the larger market does now.
Don't forget that they announced a 20 for 1 split coming on or about June 3rd. That's usually bullish news for stock price which will drop into the 144 range when it happens, based on today's price. And that will make it affordable to everyone!
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (below) is currently at 4,600 at this juncture.; she lowered her projection Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting a much higher price also. And they have announced a split in the form of a dividend (whatever that means). That should be bullish. And yet, prices continue to languish.
TSLA gained 20+ points since last week, but suffered a small relative loss of 8 points on Friday when the rest of the market was down sharply.
The 3 MAVs I watch are at 1002, 1004, and 1010. That means that price is just below the 21-day MAV but still above the other two.
The DMA Midline lies at 1027 while the LIB is at 956 and the LOB is at 912. Price is currently at 1,000. The UOB is at 1,141 and the UIB is at 1,097. All of that means that TSLA is below its Flat DMA and above the LIB. It was surprisingly stable considering what the rest of the market did.
But! The DMA_H signalled bearish on 4/6/22 and was confirmed by price acion to the downside. It is not yet bullish.
Last week I said: "I'm expecting price to rise to the trendline from the high and second high which projects in about 2 weeks to the 61.8% Fib line at 1,119." And price did almost exactly that with its high of 1,114.77. And it did it in only a week.
VantagePoint is calling for a high of 1,044 tomorrow and a low of 1,002.
Seems to me people should be flocking to TSLA with gas prices right at $6/gal in California--for Regular!
Yesterday I drove to Pasadena (above LA) for a play starring Holland Taylor about the life of Texas Governor Ann Richards. It was magnificent! On the drive up and back (which took about 3 hours each way in traffic) I saw many, many Teslas on the road. Especially in Los Angeles.
I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped more that 34% from its high.
Several months ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that.
Price is now below the 21- , 50- and 200-day MAVs. Price is currently at 52.12. This does not bode well for her ETF. ARKK is currently at 52.12.
We got a bearish signal from the DMA_H on 4/11/22. And price moved down from there. Since ARKK is below the LOB all I can say is that price is likely to move on downward and take the SunnyBands with it as we explore new lows. As long as price stays under the LOB or between the LOB and LIB price will continue to move downward.
ARKK added ZM, PATH and HOOD to her holdings as of Friday's report. And she sold 15,283 shares of SPOT.
I do think, still, that she over-trades. And bottom fishing is a risky business.
MSFT (closing at 274.03 Friday) is below its 21-, 50- and 200-day MAVs which lie at 296, 294 and 305--about the same as last time. MSFT is now also below its 20% retracement line and nearing local lows.
The LOB SunnyBand lies at 273.57 while the LIB is at 280.48. The DMA Midline lies at 292.02. Price has been moving steadily, downward and lies just under the 20% retracement line.
Looking at the weekly chart, yes MSFT is below the 20% retracement line but has been steadily sideways at that price level. This is a mixed signal, which could be bearish, and it could be bullish. Watch price action to give us more information during the next week.
Looking at the PHW_Lower indicator below (green vertical lines) you can see that you could have made $45 per share on a short trade from that last signal.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Send me a note telling me what stock you would like to see analyzed next week. If you are reading this I would like some suggestions! Click here to leave me a Comment.
Oil
Crude Light (CL) (closing at 102.07 Friday) after being sharply up and then sharply down and then up and down again with Putin's war and now it is in a large Pennant formation with price range being narrow. In after hours trading today price is at 99.37. Notice on the chart above that price nearly touched the Fib Fan on the upside and has now dropped back through the 23.6% fan and is hinting at dropping even lower.
The UOB of SunnyBands lies at 114.27 and the UIB is at 110.36. Price is right now sitting under the DMA Midline and still moving downward. There is an Attractor at 92.61 formed from the lows of 3/15 - 3/17/22. Price today in after-hours trading is sitting above the LOB just barely and is not yet up to the LIB
Putin will decide where price is going next.
BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
BitCoin is down 520 points in after-hours trading this evening. Price is currently at 38,935 and is below all 3 MAVs. There is a strong Attractor at 35,512 which is calling price lower. We had a bearish signal from the DMA_H on 3/31/22 at 45,735 and price is down 6,800 since then.
While BTC and ES have been in lockstep over the recent past, they are not today. The BTC has had up moves while ES has not; it has been on a rounding downward tiptoe. You can see the ES on the chart above: it is reflected in the green and lilac bars.
Price is right between the LOB and LIB, which usually sees price continue lower.
I still believe BTC and ETHUSD will be widely accepted as currency, though I have no idea when. And I certainly don't know where regulation would take it.
Etherium
I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Etherium) since its low in May 2021. I'm still holding a nice profit in ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens.
Price is at 2,856 down 115 points in after-hours trading. Price is below all 3 MAVs and below the 20% retracement from its high . Moreover price is between the LOB and LIB, which often takes price lower.
The LOB lies at 2827.16. Looks like that's where price is heading.
I'm wondering how much of the anonymous currency Russia/Putin control. I've been saying this since Feb 24 and only last week the news is now talking about it.
Gold
Gold is currently down just 6.5 points at 1,927.7. GC is above its 200-day MAV but below the other two. Price is also below the DMA MidLIne, but the DMA is flat.
I have been calling for gold to reach $2,000 for months in this Newsletter. It got there and bested it last week only to drop back to 1,928 today.
The Midline is at 1951.1 and the UOB is at 2008.3 with the UIB at 1986.2 I still believe we will hit the 2,000 price again and go higher. World strife adds to the attractiveness of gold. And gold is above the 200-day MAVs while it is below the 21- and 50-day MAV just slightly. I still think that will be broken to the upside.
And Russia and China have been accumulating and stockpiling gold.
Wednesday (April 20, 2022) I gave a talk at TimingResearch's Tech Wizards conference. Click on the name of the presentation to view it. You'll hear and see how I trade both Bear and Bull markets with my proprietary indicators and have been since 1981. Through multiple crashes.
Bonds
Bonds have been strongly down this past couple of weeks and are right now caught in a sideways move contained in a Pennant formation. In afterhours trading this evening price has opened higher by 21/32nds and have climbed higher since the open of the after-hours session. Price is at 140 24/32 right now. The Midline is at 142^29 and price is above the upsloping DMA on the 15-min chart. On the daily chart the LIB is at 140^00 and the LOB is at 138^09. Price is almost at the LIB and could go either direction, depending on what the Fed says.
Bonds go down, yields go up. In fact, the 2-yr / 10-year Treasuries yield curve is now inverted; that is the yield on the short-term treasuries is less than the yield on the longer-term. Looks like we are expecting even more inflation and higher interest rates, probably by 0.5 - 0.75 points this next time.
DEFINITIONS
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MY DIATRIBE FOR THE DAY
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Quips and Quotes
"Impressive Resume! Wow. You have forgotten more than most of us will likely learn. :)" - Kevin S. "You're the best person in the world." - Rich L. "I want to thank you for your books. I have read them all and it has been what has inspired me to have confidence in what I have been trading. This month alone I'm currently up $80k." -Tim A. "U r still a genius!!! Not a single losing trade all week!!!" - Chip S.
"Impressive Resume! Wow. You have forgotten more than most of us will likely learn. :)" - Kevin S.
"You're the best person in the world." - Rich L.
"I want to thank you for your books. I have read them all and it has been what has inspired me to have confidence in what I have been trading. This month alone I'm currently up $80k." -Tim A.
"U r still a genius!!! Not a single losing trade all week!!!" - Chip S.
SunnyBands - SunnyBands are a extension of my DMA. The two lines above and two lines below the purple and gold DMA alert me to where the market is going. They are constructed from ATR bands on either side of the DMA, which is my proprietary moving average that avoids most of the whipsaw action experienced by other moving averages.
DMA_H - Sunny"s DynamicMovingAverage in histogram format, using sophisticated math to smooth out the whipsaws.
Of course, my indicators work on any symbol, any time frame. In my own trading I use 1-min & 5-min charts of the ES.
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Sunny has been teaching others to trade almost as long as she has been trading. Helping struggling novices over the hurdles is a passion of hers. Sunny has won awards for her teaching and consulting, being #1 in several categories. Sunny can teach you how to use TradeStation & MultiCharts and EasyLanguage and PowerLanguage, TC2000, VantagePoint, NinjaTrader, Genesis Navigator, and MetaStock so you don’t spend months struggling on your own. If you have a concept you want programmed, she can do it for you or teach you how to do it yourself. Click Here.
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