Sunday February 25, 2024 VOLUME 8 ISSUE 09
AAPL | AMZN | BTC | DOW | CL | ES | GC | GOOGL | HUM | META | MSFT | NVDA | SBUX | TSLA | US
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Sunny Side of the Street (SSS)
The charts below are now organized first alphabetically by commodities and then alphabetically by stock symbol. It should be easier to read and find the symbol you want to take a look at.
Vantage Point Prediction
The VP Prediction for tomorrow: High : 39,3260 Low: 39,128. The Moving Averages are all moving upward strongly, above the zero-line.
This one sure makes it look like we are movin' on up.
Take a look at the Monthly chart below.
Glenn Neely's NEoWave Forecast
Glenn Neely has graciously granted us continued access to his weekly predictions! Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory and NEoWave technology. See where he thinks it will go next.
In today's chart is a Weekly view so you can see longer term predictions. Click on the link to http://www.NEoWave.com visit his website.
http://www.NEoWave.com
Notice the spots marked F and G where price could just as easily go to F as to G. Neely is calling it NonLinear.
Overview (DOW & ES)
DOW ($INDU)
Chart
Statistics
$INDU was up by 503.54 this week and now is sitting at 39131.53.
Last Time I Said
"I wouldn't be surprised to see the week move on up, even to the next Fibonacci (Fib) line at 39,511."
And move it did. Another ATH at 39,282. But not quite to my line in the sand at 39,511. Friday was down in really rugged trading.
Current SunnyBands Signals
We are currently in a Buy from 11/03/23 at 34,061 and with price now at 39,131 we have about 5,070 points of potential profit in this signal.
Analysis
The DOW is again showing its strength by cllmbing to a new All Time High (ATH) on Friday. The climb on Friday ended up leaving a Doji candle. That means indecision to me. Buyers and Sellers struggling to determine a direction. So, be prepared for anything.
If the selling gathers momentum then we could go down to the DMA which is currently at 38,287. That would put us about 500 points down. If it continues to go down after this week it has an Attractor below at 37,998. That's not my first scenario, however, because I'm guessing it will go up. The Attractor above the market is at 39,511 and above that there's one at 40,074.
In all likelihood reaching 40,000 will generate a bit of congestion.
Monthly DOW
The orange Attractor I drew when price exceeded the triangle (hint: it's a trendline) is still holding. I thought we would continue upward, and we are.
Notice on this Monthly Dow chart of percentage change that we are still above the UOB and the Attractor at 35,111 on the Monthly.
It looks like we have finished wave 4 and are now headed for higher highs as we work on wave 5. As we get toward 40,000 we will likely congest while attempting to get above another Natural Number.
ES (S&P 500)
@ES was up by 81.75 this week and now is sitting at 5101.50.
"If the market is strong, and the options buyers will continue betting, then this week should be an Up one."
And strong it is. We have again moved nicely upward with another ATH.
We are in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 4,801.25 on 01/08/24. With price right now at 5,094 that gives us 293 points of potential profit. At $50 per contract, that's about $14,650 of potential.
Monday and Tuesday were down days: Red candles. They dropped right to the DMA and bounced. The DMA was Flat at the bounce and thus was expected by the SunnyBands rules. And now we are sitting at an ATH at 5,101.50. Nothing on the chart says reversal. Gold is on top and Slope is at a steep 78 degrees. It all speaks to up movement in the near future.
Commodities
BitCoin (BTC)
@BTC was down by -950 this week and now is sitting at 51750.
"It looks to me that the upward push will continue until BTC gets to the next Fib Attractor at 57,861 (Monthly chart)."
On the Monthly chart the upper Attractor is still in effect. Yet on the Daily chart we have just entered a SunnyBands Sell signal on 02/19/24 at 52,665. Price is currently 51,600 With that, we have about 1,065 potential points in the Sell signal.
Our BTC SunnyBands Buy signal was closed at 52,665 for 12,000 points of potential profit.
BTC is now in a SunnyBands Sell signal since 02/19/24 at 52,665. With price currently at 51,600 that's about 1,065 points of potential profit so far.
Last time we entered into a Short signal. It has been productive by over 1,000 points. At this juncture I'm guessing price will continue on down to the DMA at 49,974. And then bounce. That's typically what happens. If price drops below the DMA it could go on down to the LIB at 47,505.
@CL was down by -1.97 this week and now is sitting at 76.49.
"There is a Strong Attractor just overhead at 79.31. CL has been trying to fo above this line in the sand since 11/07/23 and hasn't made it."
This week price almost rose to the UOB but didn't quite make it. It did get as high as 78.56, but didn't quite make it. But I have faith that it will.
If price closes below the DMA I'm out.
Crude has a rounded bottoming formation in effect. From that I technically expect a pullback and then a move higher. Doesn't always happen, but it can.
Gold (GC)
@GC was up by 25.3 this week and now is sitting at 2049.4.
"Gold is not dead. Yes, it is right under a Flat DMA and may struggle to get through it."
This week price is above the Flat DMA. Still not moving very much upward, but every little bit counts.
We are currently in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 02/16/24 at 2,024.1. Price is currently at 2,043.9 so we have about 19 points of potential profit in it.
Gold is still moving along steadily sideways. We have been in this sideways channel since 12/04/23. To me that just indicates retail buying and selling with no one stepping up to the plate.
Slope is rising at a very Flat +1.72. And the DMA_H is below the zero-line and rising.
These indicators speak "up" to me. I'm expecting price to rise to the UOB at 2,075.
US T-BONDS 30 yr
@US was up by 0^27 this week and now is sitting at 119^02.
"To me it all speaks of negative price action to follow."
And, though moving slowly, it is moving downward. Price is still below the Purple DMA, which is currently Flat.
SunnyBands are sitting in a Sell signal that was issued on 02/05/24 and confirmed the next day at 120^04. Current price is at 119^06 for a potential profit of just about 1 point.
Price is currently sitting right under the Flat DMA. It will probably rise to the DMA on Monday and the indications are that it will pull back from there.
To me it all speaks of negative price action to follow. We will probably finish the excursion to the DMA (Flat) and drop back to the Attractor at 118^18. That's my guess.
Stocks
AAPL was up by 0.21 this week and now is sitting at 182.52.
"The DMA has been Flat for about 2 weeks but is now sloping down with Purple on top in the DMA. There is an Attractor on my chart at 180.27. I believe that price will drop, or perhaps meander, to that position. Slope is both below the zero-line (negative) and Red, meaning descending. The lines on the DMA_H are Purple and getting longer. Thus, I'm of a mind that we might even go even beyond that Attractor. Beyond that there is an Attractor well below at 165.44."
My "into-wishing" (as Adrienne Toghraie calls it) lets me believe that AAPL will drop to the Attractor at 180.27 and from there bounce. I don't know how much of me is wishing and how much is techncial yet, but that;s what I'm seeing on the chart.
SunnyBands rules would have me Short from 188.32 on 02/08/24. Price is currently at 182.28 so that's about 6 points of potential profit. The prior signal was a Buy on 02/02/24 at 185.85 which went to the entry just mentioned at 188.32 for almost 3 points of potential profit.
AAPL is a great stock for trading, as is TSLA. Lots of cyclical moves up and down. It's great for swing trading with the swings being about 8 - 12 days long.
All of this put together tells me to expect
All of this put together tells me to expect a move down to the Attractor at or near 180.27 and then back up to the DMA at 186 and change.
AMZN was up by 5.48 this week and now is sitting at 174.99.
"On the Daily chart we have been moving sideways, possibly waiting for earnings. Price is astraddle the Attractor I have had on the chart at 168.94. The SunnyBands are slowing down but are not yet Flat although price action is flat."
This week negated all th commentaryt by bouncing off the DMA to rise to its current price of 174.63.
The current SunnyBands signal is Long from 01/08/24 at 149.10. Right now we are at 174.63 so that means about 25 points of potential profit. The market is currently rising and is above the Attractor at 167.79.
On the Histogram the bars are Gold now and getting longer. As they bounce off the zero-line I'm envisioning price rising early in the week and then possibly taking a breather. The Slope indicator is Green and ascending above the zero-line. All the signs are positive!
On the Daily chart we had been moving sideways, possibly waiting for earnings. Price is now up over 5 points on the week and it looks like it could continue to climb.
GOOGL was up by 3.44 this week and now is sitting at 143.96.
"I think this one has a little more room on the downside. Today's candle is astraddle the LIB and looks like it could go lower."
The close on Wednesday was appreciably lower than previously in the week. Then we had an interesting gap up to the DMA on Thursday, followed by that same bar closing lower along with Friday's bar.
We are in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 02/21/24 at 142.55. It's only been a few days, but with price currently at 143.93, we've made just a bit: almost 1.5 points potential profit. It looks precarious in here. We should be very careful at this juncture and ready to take the trade off and possibly reverse. Watch the Flat DMA and the lines on the DMA_H.
To make rhyme or reason out of this chart, I zoomed out to a Weekly chart. There it makes sense. Price is in a 4 week congestion pattern known as a Pennant.Traditional TA says that these resolve in the direction of the previous trend, or flagpole. And, that would mean UP. A bounce off the Weekly DMA is in order and could take us to new local highs. If the bounce doesn't happy then in all likellihood it will drop to the low of 02/02/24 at 136.46.
HUM was down by -4.01 this week and now is sitting at 362.91.
"The SunnyBands are sloping downward, along with price, and the bands are narrowing. To me that speaks of a breakout. The only question is, will it break up or down?"
I still don't doubt the upward motion in the long-term, but price right now is in an upsidedown cup sort of configuration.
I'm not ready to give up on the current Buy signal from SunnyBands. The signal came in on 01/26/24 at 361.23. With current price at 362.91 that's about 2 points of potential loss in the current trade. DMA is sloping downward, but price is now turned down from that level. The upward motion of Slope has languished, and is pretty much below the zero-line and switching back and forth between green and red, but I think it has some more room on the upside.
The SunnyBands are sloping downward, along with price, and the bands are narrowing. To me that speaks of a breakout. The only question is, will it break up or down? Price is just about touching the 21-day MAV as well as the DMA. Purple is on top in the DMA, but not for long. The DMA_H has just rossed over the zero-line and turned Gold. To me that means the market will turn upward.
META
META was up by 10.71 this week and now is sitting at 484.03.
"Price has stayed above the Yellow boundary and is still looking somewhat positive. Price is right at the UOB and showing some signs of slowing."
We have actually had a nice Up Week. Friday showed some slowing at the top. See Analysis for more.
We are Long from 10/30/23 in a "long-term" signal. Recent moves have only enhanced the holdings. The SunnyBands Long signal was at 302.66 and with price currently at 484.03 that's a potential 181 points of profit. Imagine that on 100 shares!
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META has continued on up, had a great Gap and (though slowly) continued on up after that. Price has stayed above the Yellow boundary and is still looking positive. Price is right between the UOB and UIB. As long as it stays between them (approximately) then we are going on up. I'm still expecting to see 500 soon and then some stumbling about until traders are confident in the new support.
MSFT
MSFT was up by 6.28 this week and now is sitting at 410.34.
"MSFT is down a bit, dipping to the DMA with Gold still on top. Usually this signals a bounce back up to the upper bands, but I'm not sure this time."
MSFT is still churning. It feels a bit like a rollercoaster. And I don't like rollercoasters.
We are currently in a potential Sell signal but not quite. It must be confirmed by dropping below the DMA. We went Long on 01/09/24 at 375.79. With price now at 410 we have a potential profit of about 35 points per share.
MSFT is down a bit, dipping to the DMA with Gold still on top. Usually this signals a bounce back up to the upper bands, but I'm not sure this time. If price closes below the Flat DMA then we could be going on down. Price is above the Flat DMA with Gold on top. The Red bars on the Histogram are getting shorter implying a potential down move. Further, Slope is Flat, though it's Green. It looks to me like it wants to go down again.
NVDA was up by 62.04 this week and now is sitting at 788.17.
"The SunnyBands are flattening out at the top. That's almost prescient. The lower bands are still moving up but the upper are flattening out."
I also said: "
I also said: "We are currently cautiously in a [NVDA] Buy signal on SunnyBands from 12/13/23 at 480.88. With price currently at 727.20 that's pretty good, I'd say. A potential profit of 246 points per share so far. I say cautiously because there is a potential Sell signal on SunnyBands that could take us out of this trade. Another candle closing beneath the UIB could do it."
And, we got that signal. Tthis week we were taken out of the trade. I didn't take a Short, however, because Gold is on top and the DMA is strongly Sloping upward.
We are currently FLAT. When's the last time you heard me say that? The Sell signal mentioned above took us out of the trade but I didn't go Short because the DMA was Flat at the time and the DMA was Flat.
The SunnyBands are again on the move, with a new SunnyBands Buy signal from 02/22/24 at 785.38. I'm not fond of the signal however. The signal bar was the break of the DMA and it went up on a large gap.
As luck would have it I personally went long on Wednesday very near the bottom of the downdraft. NVDA was down 35 points but I believe in NVDA long-term so my thinking was "if it goes down I'll buy more." Then the stock had a Great earnings report and shot up 125 points in one day. You can say I was a happy girl.
SBUX was up by 2.40 this week and now is sitting at 95.62.
"SBUX has been up and down but mostly down this week. Price moved down below the DMA (with Purple on top) and Slope just now negative and Red. Price formation looks like it could go further down this next week."
Well, I guess I was too early with that prognostication. I still think it has a little further down to go in order tor explore around the LIB.
We are now in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 02/22/24 at 95.78 as price closed above the DMA. However, Friday's candle was Red and wicked up to the UIB. If the next candle (Monday) closes below the DMA this trade I will Reverse and go Short. Stay on your toes.
SBUX was down for many weeks in a nice slow trend. Then came the consolidation.We are still in a long Flat DMA period of congestion. Slope is Flat, though Green, and slightly negative. None of this makes me want to trade it. I had my Starbucks today; did you?
TSLA was down by -7.98 this week and now is sitting at 191.97.
"SunnyBands had been sloping downward, but are now sideways. The DMA is Flat with Purple barely on top. Slope is also up (Green) and just about to cross over the zero-line. It looks to me like with this in mind that we are at least going to move up to the UIB which is currently at 202.39."
Last time I also mentioned that TSLA is all over the map.It can go up 100 points and then down the same amount. But, in fact, it did violate the Flat DMA and moved up. This could easily the be the start of more upward movement.
With SunnyBands, we were in a Sell signal last we spoke. On Thursday we closed (on a green candle) above the Flat DMA signalling and then confirming a Long. So far the trade has not panned out. TSLA spent the week moseying along sideways so there is no profit or loss in this trade.
SunnyBands had been sloping downward, but are now sideways in a narrow channel that spans from 181 to 211. I'm guessing it will bounce around beetween there for a bit. There is a lot of congestion this week, with small range bars coursing sideways.
It would make sense to me for it now to continue back to 211 and the back down to 181.
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