Sunday August 21, 2022 VOLUME 6 ISSUE 27
Who is Reading this Newsletter? I intentionally introduce errors and misspellings to see if anyone is paying attention. See how many you can find, and let me know.
If you Didn't Attend the "EasyLanguage Forum", but would like Access to the Videos and Slides, here's where to get them. Sam Tennis and I covered EasyLanguage from Beginners to Intermediate. And even some OOEL. It was intense and lots of fun. If you couldn't come and want the materials you may purchase them for a modest cost here: OrderForm.
Check out the new symbol: KDP. For a recent event with TimingResearch (David Kosmider) called Lightning Round #1 I highlighted a stock I think will do well in the future. Click on the link and you can view the analysis. The stock is KDP, Keuring Dr. Pepper. My though was that coffee is our national pastime, and certainly mine, and that it will continue to do well in the future. Since my prediction it has continued to move upward and I want you to share in the analysis. KDP. We just published Lightning Round #2. Check it out here. (Trading in a Recession).
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Samuel K. Tennis is world-renowned as "Mr. EasyLanguage" as he was the lead programmer, designer and programmer of EasyLanguage when he was working for Omega Research, which changed its name to TradeStation in 2001.
Sunny J. Harris has been a professional trader since 1981 (through all the Bear and Bull markets) and author of "TradeStation Made Easy!" She began using TradeStation & EasyLanguage (at the time "System Writer") since 1987 and has been a TradeStation Beta Tester ever since.
Sunny and Sam have been friends for more than 30 years and are partners in writing our upcoming "EasyLanguage Object-Oriented Programming Made Easy!"
I have added three new pages to MoneyMentor in the Reference Section: Diagramming Sentences & Parts of Speech, a map of Russia, and Taxes. Take a Look. And Glenn Neely of NEoWave.com has consented to allowing me to post his Market Forecast for the S&P. Take a look below.
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September 6, 2022 I will be giving a talk at TimingResearch. You'll hear and see how I look at the VIX and News Event Trading.
If you haven't yet had a chance, please take a look at my Podcast: "The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis". It's FREE. Listen while you Trade.
The most recent Episode is an enlightening visit with Jody Samuels, of WavyTunnelPro and FXTradersEdge. Jody has been trading for more than 35 years and the podcast is not to miss . Before that were legends Harry Boxer and Peter Eliades and then Michael Filighera illustrious Elliottician. Past episodes include: Glenn Neely (Elliott Wave Expert: neowave.com), Perry Kaufman (prolific author and master trader: kaufmansignals.com), and technical Rock Star Tim Slater. Upcoming episodes include David Kosmider (timingresearch.com) and Wally Olopade of RightSide Trading, Joe Krutsinger and now Anka Metcalf. I listen to Podcasts while I trade! You don't have to just sit there and listen.
Don't miss these Podcasts! These have been delightful and enlightening interviews into the lives of legendary traders and their take on the markets.
This coming week we have several important reports coming out that will likely affect the markets. We have some important stocks reporting earnings: NVDA, ZM, VIOT, M, DKS, XPEV, MDT, and more. In addition, Reports next week are PMI, New Home Sales, New Home Sales, Mfgr Index and more.
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VantagePoint ai Prediction for Tomorrow
VP clearly projects the anticipated direction and magniture of tomorrow’s market. You can use any symbol; I trade the EMini S&P.
My read of this chart tells me that all three MAVs are moving downward, while the short-term MAV is now below the zero-line.
The VP projection for tomorrow is for yet another small down day with a high of 33,826 and a low of 33,634.
Friday's close was 33767 with a low of 33,905 and a high of 33,627. The prediction for Monday calls for a higher high and a higher low. But just slightly.
Glenn Neely's S&P Prediction
Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory. See where he thinks it will go next. Click to the right of the image to visit his website.
http://www.neowave.com
Last Week I Said:
"We are currently above both the 21- and 50-day MAVs and the 200-day MAV lies at 33,905. The 200-day is the likely target." And it was. The Dow just touched the 200-day MAV, went slightly above it and fell back down. Price is currently below the 200-day MAV and in after-hours trading this afternoon is down 163 points.
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The stats for the Dow are:
This tells us that the market was Down 54 points, to close at 33,707.
While the previous week was largely up, the week finished the last 3 days going down.
In after-hours trading Dow futures (YM) are down 172 points.
We are currently above both the 21- and 50-day MAVs and the 200-day MAV lies at 33,859. Price is below both the UOB and UIB of the SunnyBands. The DMA MidLine is flat so I'm expecting price to drop to that level. As you can see above, that line lies at 33,218. That's another 400 points down.
Be on your toes with your long positions.
S&P 500
The stats for ES are:
The DMA_H is now showing Red, indicating Bearishness for the last 4 days. The ES was down 49.50 points on the week, and in after hours trading today it is down 23 points.
The Gold DMA is still on top which puts upward pressure on price action. On Who's On Top you can quickly see that Gold is on top and from the DMA_H that the Buy signal was on 6/21/22 when the ES was at 4,277. Now we are at 4,210, down about 67 points . In four days that's 67 * 50 = $3,350 on the daily chart. Not bad for 4 days on one contract!
The ES is still above the 21-day MAV and above the 50-day yet 100 points below the 200-day MAV. The 200-day MAV lies at 4,314.17. We are currently at 4.210. Exceeding that line will signal another Bull market; dropping below the 21-day MAV (which lies at 4,149) could easily say there is more room on the downside.
Lots still depends on the state of the Recession and what the Fed does next to Interest Rates. The previous 75-basis point increase didn't seem to deter the market from going up, BUT Friday the Fed said they were going to "get the job done" and the Dow dropped more than 1,000 points. We have another report about what they are going to do on September 20th (my birthday).
The ES is now down 12%, having lost some of its recovery. It is slightly above the DMA MidLine but below the UOB and UIB. The ES lost much of its recovery last week and is sitting right on top of the Flat DMA MidLine. I expect it to drop to that level. In my experience attempts to breach the 200-day MAV are often followed by retreat and then another attempt to break it..
The Dow is also right below its 200-day MAV which lies at 33,858. The end of last week took the Dow from above to below the UOB and is now straddling the UIB.
The Dow could easily drop to the DMA MidLine which lies at 33,218. And it's Flat.
Price is currently at 33,530 on the YM Dow futures contract.
Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions
Fibonacci retracements show us that the Dow is now heading for the 50% retracement level which lies at 33,320. Just above is the 61.8% line at 34,168. It's about equidistant from each.
I'm not guessing that it will go straight there in (as Lucy said) in one "swell foop". But I am guessing it will go for those retracements. The all time high was on January 4th at 36,937.
There is a trendline that forms from that high, through the 35,492 on 4/25/22 right down to where we are right now. It's also right at the 200-day MAV line. Will this line impeed further up moves for a time? Be cautious just in case.
RadarScreen of Stocks
Here again, back by popular demand, is my RadarScreen of Stocks:
Notice that BKNG is still on top but that AMZN is no longer even in the list. Things change. AMZN hasn't been so choppy lately, it has been up and out of the range it was in.
Stock Scan for those Above all 3 MAVs
Notice that, of the 3,600 stocks I scan, there are now 655 stocks above their 3 MAVs.
Stocks
KDP: Keuring Dr. Pepper
The stats for KDP are:
When I publicly recommended this stock in David Kosmider's TimingResearch "Lightning Round #1" price was down at 34.94. It is now sitting at 39.96, down less than a point from last week.
I, an avid coffee drinker, (I'm having a cup while I write this) believed that this non-alcholic beverage vendor would continue to thrive. Keuring is a great coffeemaker and very popular. They even have one at my hairdresser's.
Price dipped intraday last week, but has been flirting with both the UOB and UIB this week. In fact, price is right between the UOB and UIB today. I'm still expecting long-term progress from this stock.
HUM is doing well again. It is currently making new all-time highs..
HUM
The stats for HUM are:
Last Close = +499.86 : the close Friday was at +499.86. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+496.88) = +2.98 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +502.50 UIB = +495.58 MidLine = +483.69 MidAngle = 48.43 LIB = +471.80 LOB = +464.88 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 487.56 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 473.62 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 444.12 - Above Color of DMA_H = Gold
HUM is up this week almost 3 points. It is now at an all-time high.
The DMA_H turned Gold last week of being hesitantly red. I never take a trade signal until price action confirms, but HUM gave a DMA Gold signal on 6/23/22 at 464. It is currently at 499.86, a nice 30+ move since the signal.
The UOB lies at 502.50 and the UIB is at 495.58. Last time I said: "I'm guessing that price will touch the MidLine at 475 and bounce from there." And it did just that!
AMZN
The stats for AMZN are:
Last Close = +138.23 : the close Friday was at +138.23. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+143.55) = -5.32 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +144.57 UIB = +141.39 MidLine = +135.85 MidAngle = 14.71 LIB = +130.31 LOB = +127.13 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 135.42 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 121.59 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 144.54 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
AMZN, is no longer the stock with the highest PHW. In fact, it ranks under HUM and TSLA and has in the recent past spent a lot of time going down. However, on 7/15/22 it gave a Buy signal on the DMA_H and as of last week was up 41 points from that signal. However, this past week has shown the DMA_H turning Red and signalling a Bearish turn.
Price is now at 137.64, below its 200-day MAV, though still above the other two. The gap down on Friday almost took it to the DMA MidLine, which now lies right below. I'm expecting it will go on down to that level, which lies at 135.85.
TSLA
The stats for TSLA are:
Last Close = +890.00 : the close Friday was at +890.00. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+900.09) = -10.09 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +941.58 UIB = +913.77 MidLine = +866.95 MidAngle = 56.09 LIB = +820.14 LOB = +792.33 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 875.52 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 777.60 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 903.92 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (chart below) is still at 4,600 at this juncture; she lowered her projection a few weeks ago. Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting a much higher price also. And they have announced a 3:1 split to come August 24th along with a Dividend. That should be bullish. And now price has been moving once again downward, along with the rest of the market.
TSLA went sideways for 30 trading days before breaking out from the channel.
TSLA has lost 10 points since last week. I'll be watching closely for more action to buy again. But, I'm being careful.
Seems to me people should be flocking to TSLA with gas prices high still. Thankfully it has dropped to $5.10/gal in San Diego, California.
I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped more that 28% from its high, but up from its low.
ARKK
The stats for ARKK are:
Last Close = +44.69 : the close Friday was at +44.69. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+52.01) = -7.32 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +53.13 UIB = +50.91 MidLine = +47.31 MidAngle = -5.14 LIB = +43.72 LOB = +41.50 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 48.15 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 45.06 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 66.41 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
Several months ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that. But, currently she is below all 3 MAVs. ARKK is now up from its low of 35.10 to current price of 44.40.
Gold is still showing on Who's On Top at the bottom of the chart which tells me that we can expect more positivity. But, the DMA MidLine is now Flat and lies at 47.31, above current price. It is not yet touching the LIB but looks like it is headed there.
Although ARKK has been going; up, it is doing it very slowly. She is above the sideways channel she's been in for months and that's encouraging.
When you think about your own trading success, take a look at what one of the most notable traders (Cathy Wood) has done.
ARKK added 848,533 shares of DNA to her holdings as of Friday's report.
I do think, still, that she over-trades. And bottom fishing is a risky business.
MSFT
Last Close = +286.15 : the close Friday was at +286.15. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+291.91) = -5.76 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +290.97 UIB = +287.26 MidLine = +280.75 MidAngle = 23.51 LIB = +274.25 LOB = +270.54 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 280.16 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 267.03 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 293.62 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
MSFT (closing at 286.15 Friday) is now below its 200-day MAV (which lies at 293.62) but above its 21- and 50-day MAVs. Last week I said "It doesn't have much farther to go up to reach to 200-day which lies at 294.55. It could do it this week easily." And it did just that! In fact, after touching that barrier it has fallen back, along with the rest of the market.
Price is below the UOB and the DMA_H has turned Red. The last 3 days of the past week were down, though not drastically.
The long-term trendline still shows that MSFT is down about 18% from its all-time high. This is one of the reasons we are still in a Bear market.
Don't you think you should purchase the SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own? Sure helps Profits!
Looking at the weekly chart, MSFT is sitting right above the Flat DMA MidLine. That could signal a bounce. But it could also dip below the MidLine as the Daily chart moves down to the Flat DMA MidLine. Watch price action closely.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Please join my Podcast (The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis). It's a lot of fun getting to know the Gurus from a personal standpoint and hear their predictions for the coming market. I listen to podcasts while I trade.
Oil
The stats for CL are:
Crude Light (CL) on a Daily chart (closing at 90.44 Friday) is down 1.23 points this past week. Since the high in March it has continued to decline.
Price is right above the LIB, which is very Bearish with the DMA itself still showing Purple. On the DMA_H Purple is solidly on top since the short signal on 6/10/22.
Fibonacci Lines suggest it might go on down to $80.
Yet, on the monthly chart we are sitting right on a long-term Attractor from February 2009. That could cause price to bounce. If it fails, it's going on down to the Fib line at 80. Pundits I listen to are saying price may go much higher.
Putin will decide where price is going next. If, and it looks likely, Russia begins to support Kaliningrad to the West of Lithuania and North of Poland we will get into a war with Putin defending Lithuania and Poland, members of the EU. If that happens, crude will be needed to support the war and prices will respond.
BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
The stats for BTC are:
Last Close = +21,230.00 : the close Friday was at +21,230.00. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+24,240.00) = -3,010.00 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +24,875.59 UIB = +23,913.36 MidLine = +22,280.69 MidAngle = -88.70 LIB = +20,648.03 LOB = +19,685.80 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 23149.52 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 22279.50 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 38160.55 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
BitCoin is down 69% since its all time high of 70,040 on 11/10/21.
I'm writing this on Sunday, and in after-hours trading it is up +160 points, at 21,380. Price week before last took it above the 21- and 50-day MAVs which could be a positive sign. And it did, for the first part of the week. Then it started going down again. The 200-day is way above the top of the chart at roughly 40,000. Now price is below all three MAVs.
Price is below the Flat DMA MidLine, and will probably drop to the LIB at 20,648 and possibly on down to the LOB at 19,685.
Ethereum
The stats for Ethereum are:
Last Close = +1,686.29 : the close Friday was at +1,686.29. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,933.94) = -247.65 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +1,943.31 UIB = +1,840.55 MidLine = +1,657.02 MidAngle = 82.15 LIB = +1,473.49 LOB = +1,370.73 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1717.98 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1416.78 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 2655.67 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Ethereum) since its low in May 2021. I'm still holding ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens. Currently it is below my buy-in point. Why not sell? Because I'm in this one for the long-term and expect it to take off at some point. If it doesn't, oh well. It was an interesting experiment.
The chart of ETHUSD is down 86 points in after-hours trading. Price is below the Flat DMA MidLine and below the 21- and 200-day MAVs. To me kt looks like it will go on down to the LIB at 1,473.
ETHUSD has been going up while BTC has been going down. It is still outstripping BTC.
Gold
The stats for Gold are:
Last Close = +1,762.90 : the close Friday was at +1,762.90. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,815.50) = -52.60 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +1,818.27 UIB = +1,802.88 MidLine = +1,775.82 MidAngle = -31.28 LIB = +1,748.77 LOB = +1,733.38 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1781.48 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1792.89 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 1866.02 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
Gold is currently down -1.9 in after hours trading and since last week was down over 52 points. Price has moved below the DMA MidLine which is not Flat, it is now sloping slightly down. That's Bearish. Check out Glenn Neely's report on his website to get an idea where he thinks Gold is going. His predictions are very accurate. Spoiler alert, he thinks it is going way down.
The Midline is at 1,776 the LOB is at 1,733. The MidAngle is negative. Anything could happen with this one, but it looks to me like it could go farther down to me. Looking at the monthly chart, we have been going sideways since August 2020.
I still believe we will hit the 2,000 price again someday and go higher. World strife used to add to the attractiveness of gold. I still think that will be broken to the upside eventually. NOTE: Glenn Neely (of NEoWave Forecasting, and our 4th Podcast) thinks Gold has a lot lower to go. It's a riveting Podcast!
Sept 6, 2022 I will be giving a talk at TimingResearch . You'll hear and see how I use VIX and News in my trading.
Bonds
The stats for @US are:
Last Close = +138.47 : the close Friday was at +138.47. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+140.59) = -2.12 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +144.37 UIB = +142.92 MidLine = +140.56 MidAngle = -5.00 LIB = +138.20 LOB = +136.75 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 141.92 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 139.12 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 148.47 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
Bonds are down on the week for a loss of -2.12 points.
In after hours trading bonds are down 1/32 of a point.
On the monthly chart bonds are down significantly, by 22%. Price bounced last week off the LOB and are now above the LIB.
In fact, price is currently sitting right on a strong Attractor from 2017. That could support further downside action
Bonds go down, yields go up. In fact, the 2-yr / 10-year Treasuries yield curve is now inverted again; that is the yield on the short-term treasuries is less than the yield on the longer-term. Looks like we are expecting even more inflation and higher interest rates, probably by 0.5 - 0.75 points this next time.
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