Sunday August 28, 2022 VOLUME 6 ISSUE 28 - Probably the Last Issue
Who is Reading this Newsletter? I am going to stop spending Saturday and Sunday writing this newsletter as of this issue, unless I hear back from YOU. Please respond, letting me know if you genuinely want to continue this subscription. Comments.
If you Didn't Attend the "EasyLanguage Forum", but would like Access to the Videos and Slides, here's where to get them. Sam Tennis and I covered EasyLanguage from Beginners to Intermediate. And even some OOEL. It was intense and lots of fun. If you couldn't come and want the materials you may purchase them for a modest cost here: OrderForm.
Check out the new symbol: KDP. For a recent event with TimingResearch (David Kosmider) called Lightning Round #1 I highlighted a stock I think will do well in the future. Click on the link and you can view the analysis. The stock is KDP, Keuring Dr. Pepper. My though was that coffee is our national pastime, and certainly mine, and that it will continue to do well in the future. Since my prediction it has continued to move upward and I want you to share in the analysis. KDP. We just published Lightning Round #2. Check it out here. (Trading in a Recession).
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Samuel K. Tennis is world-renowned as "Mr. EasyLanguage" as he was the lead programmer, designer and programmer of EasyLanguage when he was working for Omega Research, which changed its name to TradeStation in 2001.
Sunny J. Harris has been a professional trader since 1981 (through all the Bear and Bull markets) and author of "TradeStation Made Easy!" She began using TradeStation & EasyLanguage (at the time "System Writer") since 1987 and has been a TradeStation Beta Tester ever since.
Sunny and Sam have been friends for more than 30 years and are partners in writing our upcoming "EasyLanguage Object-Oriented Programming Made Easy!" It looks like, at this point, it will be about another month before it goes to press. If you want an autographed copy, click here.
I have added three new pages to MoneyMentor in the Reference Section: Diagramming Sentences & Parts of Speech, a map of Russia, and Taxes. Take a Look. And Glenn Neely of NEoWave.com has consented to allowing me to post his Market Forecast for the S&P. Take a look below.
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September 6, 2022 I will be giving a talk at TimingResearch. You'll hear and see how I look at the VIX and News Event Trading.
Podcast: The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis
If you haven't yet had a chance, please take a look at my Podcast: "The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis". It's FREE. Listen while you Trade.
The most recent Episode is an enlightening visit with David Kosmider (timingresearch.com) who brings us free gurus talks and seminars. Get to know him personally! The podcast is not to miss. Before that were legends Jody Samuels, Harry Boxer and Peter Eliades and then Michael Filighera illustrious Elliottician. Past episodes include: Glenn Neely (Elliott Wave Expert: neowave.com), Perry Kaufman (prolific author and master trader: kaufmansignals.com), and technical Rock Star Tim Slater. Upcoming episodes include Wally Olopade of RightSide Trading, Joe Krutsinger and now Anka Metcalf. I listen to Podcasts while I trade! You don't have to just sit there and listen and do nothing else.
Don't miss these Podcasts! These have been delightful and enlightening interviews into the lives of legendary traders and their take on the markets.
This coming week we have several important reports coming out that will likely affect the markets. We have some important stocks reporting earnings: PDD, ITRN, NSSC, HTHT, CTLT, SLQT, and more. In addition, Reports next week are HPI, Consumer Confidence, Job Openings, FOMC Williams, Non-Farm Employment and more.
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VantagePoint ai Prediction for Tomorrow
VP clearly projects the anticipated direction and magniture of tomorrow’s market. You can use any symbol; I trade the EMini S&P.
My read of this chart tells me that all three MAVs are now below the zero-line and pointing down. That's potentially ominous.
The VP projection for tomorrow is for yet another down day with a high of 32,759 and a low of 32,090.
Friday's close was 32,283 with a low of 32,278 and a high of 33,365. The prediction for Monday calls for a lower high and a lower low. Put on your seatbelt.
Glenn Neely's S&P Prediction
Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory. See where he thinks it will go next. Click to the right of the image to visit his website. Notice that he called for this down move over 2 weeks ago.
http://www.neowave.com
Last Week I Said:
"We are currently above both the 21- and 50-day MAVs and the 200-day MAV lies at 33,859. Price is below both the UOB and UIB of the SunnyBands. The DMA MidLine is flat so I'm expecting price to drop to that level. As you can see above, that line lies at 33,218. That's another 400 points down." And on Friday we did that and much better--1,000 points down, to 32,283!
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The stats for the Dow are:
This tells us that the market was Down over 1,000 points, to close at 32,283.40.
While the previous week was largely down, the week finished the week with a sharp down move on Fed's comments that they would continue to raise interest rates "until the job is done" warning we might have to endure lost jobs and Recession.
In after-hours trading Dow futures (YM) are down 216 points.
We are currently below the 200-day and 2-day MAVs and sitting right above the 50-day MAV. Breaking below the 50-day MAV will signal more bearish activity is in store. I anticipate we will accomplish that tomorrow.
Be on your toes with your long positions.
S&P 500
The stats for ES are:
The DMA_H is showing Red, indicating Bearishness for the last 4 days. The ES was down 172 points on the week, and in after hours trading today it is down another 33.50 points.
Nevertheless, the Gold DMA is still on top which puts upward pressure on price action and might work to contain any downdraft. But, the DMA is pointing downward. On Who's On Top you can quickly see that Gold is still on top and from the DMA_H that the Sell signal was on 8/17/22 when the ES was at 4,277. Now we are at 4,072.75, down about 189 points. In eight days that's 182 * 50 = $9,100 on the daily chart. Not bad for 8 days on one contract!
The ES is now below both the 200-day MAV and the 21-day yet 70 points above the 50-day MAV which lies at 3,999.
Lots still depends on the state of the Recession and what the Fed does next to Interest Rates. The 75-basis point increase last month didn't seem to deter the market from going up, so who knows. We have another report about what they are going to do on September 20th (my birthday).
Fibonacci Retracements and Extensions
Fibonacci retracements show us that the Dow is now below the 38.2% retracement level which lies at 32,480. The next line in the sand lies at 31,419 with the 23.6% retracement.
I'm not guessing that it will go straight there in (as Lucy said) in one "swell foop". But I am guessing it will go for those retracements. The all time high was on January 4th at 36,937.
There is a trendline that forms from that high, through the 35,492 on 4/25/22 and turned back the recent "recovery." I'm expecting the Dow to resume its Bearish move down to the 31,419 level.
RadarScreen of Stocks
Here again, back by popular demand, is my RadarScreen of Stocks:
Notice that BKNG is still near the top of the list, but is now second with NVR on top. NVR has had lots of moves to the UOB and back to the LOB, so that accounts for the "tradability."
Stock Scan for those Above all 3 MAVs
Notice that, of the 3,600 stocks I scan, there are now only 358 stocks above their 3 MAVs. Last week, before the downdraft there were 806 stocks above the MAVs.
Stocks
KDP: Keuring Dr. Pepper
The stats for KDP are:
When I publicly recommended this stock in David Kosmider's TimingResearch "Lightning Round #1" price was down at 34.94. It is now sitting at 38.61, down a point from last week.
Notice lots of Pennant formations on the chart. Those signify lots of sideways action. I trade the Pennants by waiting for a breakout to one side or the other from the red horizontal lines on the top or bottom of the Pennant. So, we are looking for a breakout now.
I, an avid coffee drinker, (I'm having a cup while I write this) believed that this non-alcholic beverage vendor would continue to thrive. Keuring is a great coffeemaker and very popular. They even have one at my hairdresser's.
Price dropped last week with the rest of the market, penetrating the Pennant bottom and the 21-day MAV. It is still well above the 50- and 200-day MAVs.
AMZN
The stats for AMZN are:
Last Close = +130.75 : the close Friday was at +130.75. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+138.23) = -7.48 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +144.06 UIB = +140.77 MidLine = +135.43 MidAngle = -5.57 LIB = +130.08 LOB = +126.79 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 138.61 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 124.17 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 143.52 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
AMZN, is no longer the stock with the highest PHW. In fact, it ranks way down on the list. Along with the rest of the market it was down sharply on Friday. It is now below a Flat DMA MidLine and just touching the downsloping LIB. I'm expecting price to slip on down to the LOB, probably tomorrow.
Price is now at 130.75, below its 200- and 21-day MAVs, though still above the 50-day MAV. The LOB lies at 126.79, which would signify 4 more points down. Whether it breaks that and continues on downward depends on the rest of the market.
TSLA
The stats for TSLA are:
Last Close = +288.09 : the close Friday was at +288.09. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+296.67) = -8.58 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +310.97 UIB = +302.90 MidLine = +289.45 MidAngle = 2.58 LIB = +276.00 LOB = +267.93 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 297.19 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 265.72 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 298.89 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (chart below) is still at 4,600 at this juncture; she lowered her projection a few weeks ago. Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting a much higher price also. And they did a 3:1 split last week. That should be bullish. And now price has been moving once again downward, along with the rest of the market.
However, it did not move down below the DMA MidLine which most of the market did.
TSLA has lost 8.58 points since last week. I'll be watching closely for more action to buy again. But, I'm being careful.
VantagePoint is calling for a high of 299.38 tomorrow and a low of 284.50 (an outside bar).
This is still my favorite stock. But, at this point I'm a trader, not an investor yet. TSLA is sitting on top a flat DMA and to me that speaks of another bounce coming. It will need to penetrate the MidLine first though. It could easily go on down by penetrating the DMA.
Seems to me people should be flocking to TSLA with gas prices high still. Thankfully it has dropped to $5.10/gal in San Diego, California.
I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped more that 28% from its high, but up from its low.
ARKK
The stats for ARKK are:
Last Close = +42.84 : the close Friday was at +42.84. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+44.69) = -1.85 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +50.81 UIB = +49.05 MidLine = +46.38 MidAngle = -7.41 LIB = +43.70 LOB = +41.94 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 47.78 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 45.53 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 64.43 - Below Color of DMA_H = Purple
Several months ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that. But, currently she is below all 3 MAVs. ARKK is now up from its low of 35.10 to current price of 42.41.
Purple just showed up on Who's On Top at the bottom of the chart which tells me that we can expect more negativity. But, the DMA MidLine is now Flat and lies at 46.38, below current price. It is not yet touching the LOB but looks like it is headed there.
Although ARKK has been going; up, it is doing it very slowly. She is now below the sideways channel she's been in for months and that's disappointing.
When you think about your own trading success, take a look at what one of the most notable traders (Cathy Wood) has done.
ARKK added 1493076 shares of DNA to her holdings as of Friday's report.
I do think, still, that she over-trades. And bottom fishing is a risky business.
MSFT
Last Close = +268.09 : the close Friday was at +268.09. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+286.15) = -18.06 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +289.64 UIB = +285.52 MidLine = +279.18 MidAngle = -26.79 LIB = +272.84 LOB = +268.72 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 283.05 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 269.44 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 292.10 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
MSFT (closing at 268.09 Friday) is now below all 3 MAVs. That's a negative sign. As of Last Week's SSS I was positive on MSFT's possibilities, but am no longer. It had a big, solid-red bar on Friday which added to the overall market's down side.
Price is below the LOB and I anticipate it will continue on down for a time.
The long-term trendline now shows that MSFT is down about 23% from its all-time high. This is one of the reasons we are still in a Bear market.
Don't you think you should purchase the SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own? Sure helps Profits!
Last Week I Said: "Looking at the weekly chart, MSFT is sitting right above the Flat DMA MidLine. That could signal a bounce. But it could also dip below the MidLine as the Daily chart moves down to the Flat DMA MidLine. Watch price action closely." Clearly it chose the latter choice and moved decisively below the MidLine.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Please join my Podcast (The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis). It's a lot of fun getting to know the Gurus from a personal standpoint and hear their predictions for the coming market. I listen to podcasts while I trade.
Oil
The stats for CL are:
Crude Light (CL) on a Daily chart (closing at 90.44 Friday) is up 2.62 points this past week. Since the high in March it has continued to decline.
Price is right inside a Pennant formation where it has been for 4 days. It will need to penetrate the Upper Line of the Pennant to continue on upward. Penetration of the Lower Line of the Pennant will generate more downside action.
Fibonacci Lines suggest it might go on down to $86.
Yet, on the monthly chart we are sitting right on a long-term Attractor from February 2009. That could cause price to bounce. If it fails, it's going on down to the Fib line at 86. Pundits I listen to are saying price may go much higher.
Putin will decide where price is going next. If, and it looks likely, Russia begins to support Kaliningrad to the West of Lithuania and North of Poland we will get into a war with Putin defending Lithuania and Poland, members of the EU. If that happens, crude will be needed to support the war and prices will respond.
BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
The stats for BTC are:
Last Close = +20,420.00 : the close Friday was at +20,420.00. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+21,170.00) = -750.00 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +23,977.01 UIB = +23,166.34 MidLine = +21,882.78 MidAngle = -89.31 LIB = +20,599.21 LOB = +19,788.54 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 22801.90 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 21824.50 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 37014.10 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
BitCoin is down 70% since its all time high of 70,040 on 11/10/21.
I'm writing this on Sunday, and in after-hours trading it is down -640 points, at 19,780. The drop is sharp and signals further market decline tomorrow.
Last Week I Said: "Price is below the Flat DMA MidLine, and will probably drop to the LIB at 20,648 and possibly on down to the LOB at 19,685."j It's there right now.
Ethereum
The stats for Ethereum are:
Last Close = +1,556.83 : the close Friday was at +1,556.83. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,686.29) = -129.46 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +1,909.18 UIB = +1,813.34 MidLine = +1,647.27 MidAngle = -66.68 LIB = +1,481.20 LOB = +1,385.36 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1736.55 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1464.26 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 2589.61 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Ethereum) since its low in May 2021. I'm still holding ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens. Currently it is below my buy-in point. Why not sell? Because I'm in this one for the long-term and expect it to take off at some point. If it doesn't, oh well. It was an interesting experiment.
The chart of ETHUSD is sharply down 85 points in after-hours trading. Price is below the Flat DMA MidLine and below the 21- and 200-day MAVs. To me it looks like it will go on down to the LIB at 1,385.
ETHUSD has been going up while BTC has been going down. It is still outstripping BTC.
Gold
The stats for Gold are:
Last Close = +1,749.80 : the close Friday was at +1,749.80. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,762.90) = -13.10 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +1,811.37 UIB = +1,796.05 MidLine = +1,770.90 MidAngle = -34.99 LIB = +1,745.76 LOB = +1,730.44 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1784.69 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1783.08 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 1863.97 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
Gold is currently down -0.1 in after hours trading and since last week was down over 13 points. Price has moved below the DMA MidLine which is not Flat, it is now sloping slightly down. That's Bearish. Check out Glenn Neely's report on his website to get an idea where he thinks Gold is going. His predictions are very accurate. Spoiler alert, he thinks it is going way down.
The Midline is at 1,770.90 the LOB is at 1,730.44. The MidAngle is negative. Anything could happen with this one, but it looks to me like it could go farther down to me. Looking at the monthly chart, we have been going sideways since August 2020.
I still believe we will hit the 2,000 price again someday and go higher. World strife used to add to the attractiveness of gold. I still think that will be broken to the upside eventually. NOTE: Glenn Neely (of NEoWave Forecasting, and our 4th Podcast) thinks Gold has a lot lower to go. It's a riveting Podcast!
Sept 6, 2022 I will be giving a talk at TimingResearch . You'll hear and see how I use VIX and News in my trading.
Bonds
The stats for @US are:
Last Close = +137.16 : the close Friday was at +137.16. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+137.94) = -0.78 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +142.33 UIB = +141.01 MidLine = +138.94 MidAngle = -5.99 LIB = +136.87 LOB = +135.55 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 140.24 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 138.96 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 147.34 - Below Color of DMA_H = Purple
Bonds are down on the week for a loss of -0.78 points.
In after hours trading bonds are down 6/32 of a point.
On the monthly chart bonds are down significantly, by 22%. Price bounced last week off the LOB and are now below the LIB, but still above the LOB.
In fact, price is currently sitting right on a strong Attractor from 2017. That could support further downside action.
Bonds go down, yields go up. In fact, the 2-yr / 10-year Treasuries yield curve is now inverted again; that is the yield on the short-term treasuries is less than the yield on the longer-term. Looks like we are expecting even more inflation and higher interest rates, probably by 0.5 - 0.75 points this next time.
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