Sunday May 12, 2024 VOLUME 8 ISSUE 19
AAPL | AMZN | BTC | DOW | CL | ES | GC | GOOGL | META | MSFT | NVDA | TSLA | US
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Sunny Side of the Street (SSS)
The charts below are now organized first alphabetically by commodities and then alphabetically by stock symbol. It should be easier to read and find the symbol you want to take a look at.
VantagePoint Prediction
This prediction is for Monday to go higher than Friday's close and to stay above Friday's low. What it doesn't tell us is the Close. Will we go higher and then close lower? Or will be start low and go up higher? The predicted high is 39,718 while the predicted low is 39,449. I mark the High and Low on my chart and watch the day's progress with respect to the VP predictions. I'll even show you in TAWS; just ask.
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The VP moving averages are all above the zero-line and heading upward. The long-term turned down last week but is now heading right back upward. It surely looks like we'll be reaching for a new ATH.
Take a look at the Monthly chart below for more long-term insight.
Glenn Neely's Market Prediction
Glenn Neely has graciously granted us continued access to his weekly predictions! Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory and NEoWave technology. See where he thinks it will go next.
To see his long-term forecast to 2060, Click Here. Tell Glenn I sent you.
In today's chart (which will be automatically when he releases the chart on Monday afternoon) is a Weekly view so you can see longer term predictions. Click on the link to http://www.NEoWave.com visit his website.
Overview (DOW & ES)
DOW ($INDU)
Chart
Statistics
$INDU was up by 837.16 this week and now is sitting at 39512.84.
Last Time I Said
"Just 30 bars ago we registered an All-Time Closing High (ATH) near 40,000 and dropped off sharply from there. That was expected and now I'm ready to see it climb back up. Right now we are being rejected by the Purple on top, Flat DMA. It's going to take some force to break the DMA and in fact that's exactly what it did on Friday: pierced right through it." And the market keeps on keeping on.
"It would appear that the turn is coming." And that's just what it did. We are now close to the ATH at 39,889.05.
Current SunnyBands Signals
Friday's Buy signal was at 38,675. Now with price at 39,512 we are up 837 points in potential profit.
Analysis
The week was up by +837.16 points. We are quickly approaching the ATH at 39,889.05 with current price just 376 points from that level.
If it touches that level this next week then in a likelihood it will jump above it pretty quickly. Then if history is any guide it will come back from the other side to test the 40,000 level again.
For Reports, this week we have more Fed speaks, PPI, J Powell speaks, CPI, Retail Sales and more. Here's the LINK to my source of data. AND it's Earnings Season still... The next Fed Speak is June 11-12.. Again, it's all fear and greed, so it could go either way. Here's a linkto this week's critical reports.
Just 35 bars ago we registered an All-Time Closing High (ATH) near 40,000 and dropped off sharply from there. That was expected and now I'm ready to see it climb back up. Right now we are above the UOB, above the Gold DMA, above the zero-lline in the DMA_H, above the 21- and 55-day MAVs. What we aren't above is the ATH level. I do think we will pierce that level this next week or so.
The next Fib level on the Monthly chart lies overhead at 41,340.
Monthly DOW
The Blue line on the Monthly is nnow once again above the UOB. It still has to get above the ATH, but it's promising and likely.
ES (S&P 500)
@ES was up by 91.50 this week and now is sitting at 5246.25.
"We are currently in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 5047.5 on 04/22/24. Price has moved right to, but not yet above, the Flat DMA with Purple on top." Subsequently it dropped down to the LIB and then bounced, to its current position above the Flat DMA.
We are in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 5047.50 on 04/22/24. Currently at 5246.25 gives us a potential profit of +198.75 points per contract.
Price moved strongly upward all week after breaking above the DMA and on to touch the UOB. Gold is now on top in the DMA, but it is only moving gingerly upward so far. I fully expect the market to take off and get up to 5,329. Currently we are down a bit at 5,243.00 in the after-hours market.
It looks to me like we will try to push above Friday's high. We sliced slickly through the Natural Number at 5,200 and now we are alomst half way to the next one at 5,300. The ATH is only slightly higher, at 5,333.50.
Commodities
BitCoin (BTC)
@BTC was down by -1640 this week and now is sitting at 60950.
"Price is below the short-term MAVs and above the 200, showing weakness and a propensity to test the longer MAV."
And this week dropped off the Flat DMA with Purple on top to touch the LIB. That's a bit of a positive sign to me: it didn't drop all the way to the LOB which could signal weakness of conviction in the down move. In fact, it's up +870 rn in the after-hours.
We are now in a Sell signal, from 67,780 on 04/12/24. With price now at 61,815 that's about 5,965 points of potential profit.
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On the Monthly chart there is a Fib retracement line at the 76.4% level which is at 62,342. We are now below that at 61,650 in the after-hours. Technically that would say that we will likely move down to the next level at 54,380. If the downward momentum weakens it will likely just hit the LOB, which is now at 57,642.
To garner a bit more insight, I'm looking at the Weekly chart, and now I see that the last week's close was right at the Flat Weekly DMA with Gold on top. That is still the situation today, with Gold on top, but the DMA_H is getting close to the zero-line.
Back to the Daily chart. Price is below the short-term MAVs and above the 200, showing weakness and a propensity to test the longer MAV.
The Bitcoin having event was a non event. We are still below the DMA with Purple on top and there's a trendline heading down from the high on March 14th that contains current price. The next line up is at the UIB which has a value currently of 69,526... but I don't think that's where it's going right now.
I hate to say it but I think that we will drop down to the 55,000 level. The 200-day moving average is at 46,694 but I don't think we're going to get that low. Price is below the 21-day MAV As well as the 55-day MAV. And I do think it has lower to go. I think we will see the LOB touched this week.
Last time I said: "The LIB lies below at 63,227 and the LOB at 60,711. That speaks to more action on the downside." And we got it. On the other hand there's a case to be made for this being a low and a bit of a turn around coming next. We could very easily make it up above the flat DMA To the 55-day MAV.
@CL was up by 0.15 this week and now is sitting at 78.26.
Last time I was wrong. I thought there might be more room on the upside, and we did just the opposite.
SunnyBands are in a Sell signal (from 04/29/24 at 83.57) as price closed below the Flat DMA.
The price of gasoline in my neighborhood is now "up" to $5.49./gal. (Last week it was $5.39) I saw one pump with price in $/litre. That'll make us think it's cheaper. Make the package smaller. Mark (in my TAWS meeting) told me that 1 gallon is 3.7854 Litres. Good to know!
Slope is now below the zero-line and has turned red and is heading back down. But it's only minus 9.37 degrees. The DMA histogram is below the zero line and is Purple and getting longer, which hints at further down movement. Each day this week the wicks touched the LOB but then on Thursday moved up above the LIB but did not touch the DMA. Instead it turned back down and went back below the LIB.
I would not be surprised to see some more congestion at this 78 level followed by a slow move upward.
On the Weekly chart I see that we are in a long-term symmetrical triangle, or maybe it's a pennant or a wedge. Whatever you want to call it, it has been forming for months (now I'm looking at the Weekly chart). And now it is down to a fine point. Out from which it must break, one way or the other.
Gold (GC)
@GC was up by 66.4 this week and now is sitting at 2375.0.
"Price is moving on sideways in a flat triangle with a bottom at 2,301. The downsloping Orange trendline (Attractor) is holding price down so far." And then on Friday price broke above the DMA on a closing basis, so we have another Buy signal.
We were in a Sell signal last week, but on Friday price closed above the DMA, setting up a Buy signal on 05/10/24 at 2,375. The DMA is visually Flat but arithmetically it is at 36 degrees, which is certainly positive. That should promote further action on the up side this week.
I'm still looking for Gold at 2,500. With an ATH at 2,448 we don't have far to go.
On the Monthly chart it is much clearer. Price is right now toying with the All Time High at 2,448+. That ATH got bested on 04/12/24 at 2,448. And now we sit at 2,365 in the after-hours session.
The UOB is at 2,431.1 and that's where I think the next target is.
US T-BONDS 30 yr
@US was up by 0^04 this week and now is sitting at 116^02.
"Price is at the lower Linear Regression channel. Usually, if we are range bound, price will move up from there to touch the LR Line itself." And price this week moved up off the LOB and is now touching the Flat DMA with Purple on top.
We are in a Buy signal now from Monday's venture above the LOB and crossing the LIB at 114^19 on 04/29/24. Price is currently at 116^06 in the after-hours, for a potential profit of more than 2.5 points.
Price on Friday closed above the Flat DMA which qualifies as a danger zone, and until price is fully above the DMA which by then should switch to Gold on top I'm ready to take the profits in this one on a hair trigger.
When US goes down, the expectation is for Interest Rates to go up. This week price went up above the DMA which must mean expectations are for lower interest rates. I don't believe it. I'm still thinking the Fed will do what it has been saying it will do for 2 years. They haven't varied.
Last week price was at the lower Linear Regression channel. I said: "Usually, if we are range bound, price will move up from there to touch the LR Line itself." And it almost made it up to the LR line, with only 1 point to go.
In fact, price is right on the LR Line and has stagnated there. This week it dropped to the LOB and then back up to the LR Line.
The SunnyBands and DMA are forming a sideways channel with the UIB at 117.43616 and the UOB at 118.41949. The lower side of the channel is the LOB at 113.24383 and LIB at 114.22716. I'm expecting price to vascilate between those extremes for a while.
Stocks
AAPL was down by -0.33 this week and now is sitting at 183.05.
"AAPL is now above everything. It's above all 3 MAVs, it's above the UOB, and Gold is now on top. Slope is now positive at +25 degrees." And this week AAPL was generally up.
SunnyBands rules now have me in a Buy signal from 04/24/24 at 169.02. Price is now at 183.05 for about +14 points of potential profit.
AAPL has been on steady progress down until a few days ago. This week we gained from the gap of the prior week and contined, though not aggressively, upward. We have touched, but not yet broken above the orange down-sloping trendline. When that happens we should continue on up. We should make it above the line this next week.
AMZN was up by 1.27 this week and now is sitting at 187.48.
"The DMA_H is now barely below the zero-line and (at -0.09) looks like it wants to go above it. Slope is below the zero-line at -8.62 but has some divergence with price that might mean it is about to go back up." And that's what it has done.
The current SunnyBands signal is Long from 04/26/24 at 179.62. Right now we are at 179.82 so that means a few cents of potential profit. The market is currently slowly rising and is above the Attractor that's at 167.79.
We had a Short trade from 04/15/24 at 183.62. that was closed with the current Buy signal at 179.62. That's about 4 points of potential profit from the Short. Now we are in a Buy signal from Thursday's close at 186.21.
The DMA_H is now barely above the zero-line and (at +0.2) looks like it wants to go on above it. Slope is above the zero-line at +11.03 degrees, and it looks like it wants to go up higher.
GOOGL was up by 1.41 this week and now is sitting at 168.65.
Last time I was on a luxury cruise and now I need to catch back up, so nothing to report here.
We are in a SunnyBands Buy signal from 03/08/24 at 135.41. Today's price is 152.50. That gives us about 22 points of potential profit.
GOOGL gapped up from 156 on Thursday of the week prior, to open at 174+ on Friday. Thats about 18 points! Nice gap. And it formed a new ATH! And, we were Long.
Because the DMA is rising with Gold on top, I'm not yet looking to take any short signals, even though they may appear on the chart. For as long as we are rising...we are rising.
The only way to analyze an ATH is on a longer chart. So, let's look at the Monthly. (Bring it up on your computer.) On this one price is above all 3 MAVs and Slope is positive at +70.72 degrees. To get an idea where up is from a high we need to pull Fib Retracements. Doing that tells me that the next level, at 23.6%) is at 200. Currently price is at 167.24. Doing that move up would bring us right to a Natural Number which will likely bring congestion. Of course, the ATH could lead to profit taking at this level. Beware!
Full disclosure: I have a large holding in GOOGL.
META
META was up by 24.24 this week and now is sitting at 476.20.
"At this juncture I'm cautious. Purple is on top and the DMA is Flat. I'm not "expecting" price to do much more than this under these conditions. So, I'm looking to see if it peaks above the DMA and falls back, or whether there is enough momentum to justify holding on to the long." As the action this week was all around the Flat DMA with Purple still on top, I elected to take the profit and close the long trade and take the profit.
We are now Long from 05/02/24 at 441.68 with price moving up again on Friday.
At this juncture I'm cautious. Purple is on top and the DMA is Flat. I'm not "expecting" price to do much more than this under these conditions. So, I'm looking to see if it peaks above the DMA and falls back, or whether there is enough momentum to justify holding on to the long.
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META went sideways all week until Thursday when it picked up ar ran almost to the Flat DMA.
MSFT
MSFT was up by 8.08 this week and now is sitting at 414.74.
We are in a SunnyBands Short signal from 04/17/24 at 411.84. With current price at 406.32 that's about points of potential profit.
MSFT moved up nicely for the 1st 3 days of the week. Then it hit the Flat DMA with Purple on top and dropped like a lead balloon, down to the LOB. It closed above the LOB and on Friday popped right back up to the Flat DMA again.
I think we are going to complete the move down to the Attractor at 383.79 and then move back up to for another ATH. Just a guess, but an educated one.
NVDA was up by 10.89 this week and now is sitting at 898.78.
We entered a SunnyBands Sell signal while I was gone. It happened on 04/04/24 at 859.05. I marked an Exit from that signal on 04/23/24 at 824.23 (for a potential profit of 34 points) because we got a SunnyBands Buy signal that I'm not initiating yet because the DMA is Flat with Purple on top.
But on Friday price closed above the Flat DMA initiating a Buy signal at 877.36. We'll see what Monday brings.
Price is moving sideways right along with the Flat DMA. But it is above all 3 MAVs. The Histogram is under the zero-line and now moving upward (Green). Slope is right at the zero-line: Flat. The WhosOnTop indicator is also Light Purple signifying Flat. With this crossing of the DMA I'm expecting some follow-through with price moving at least to the UIB at 921.53.
TSLA was down by -12.72 this week and now is sitting at 168.47.
With SunnyBands, on the Daily chart, we were in a Sell signal last we spoke. Price action treated us to a move down from the Sell signal that was at 188.14. We got a SunnyBands Buy signal on the Gap of 04/24/24, closing the Short at 162.13 for 26 points of potential profit. At the same time the bands went Long and price is now at 168.29 for a potential 6 points of profit so far.
TSLA is still weak with the moves ticking lower. But this latest move on a gap up is encouraging.
The DMA still has Purple on top but the DMA_H has turned Green. Only briefly in the beginning of March did the Gold bars show up on the Histogram. Slope is now above the zero-line and heading upward at +10 degrees. Price is attempting to touch the UIB now at 174.39. That's about 6 more points up.
Price is below the 55- and 200-day MAVs but now above the 21-day MAV. If the 21 crosses above the 55 we will have a Golden Cross, which is normally Bullish.
On the Weekly the news is less promising. There is a strong Attractor below current price, at 106.73. There is nothing else holding it up on this chart.
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