Sunday September 18, 2022 VOLUME 6 ISSUE 30
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Samuel K. Tennis is world-renowned as "Mr. EasyLanguage" as he was the lead programmer, designer and programmer of EasyLanguage when he was working for Omega Research, which changed its name to TradeStation in 2001.
Sunny J. Harris has been a professional trader since 1981 (through all the Bear and Bull markets) and author of "TradeStation Made Easy!" She began using TradeStation & EasyLanguage (at the time "System Writer") since 1987 and has been a TradeStation Beta Tester ever since.
Sunny and Sam have been friends for more than 30 years and are partners in writing our upcoming "EasyLanguage Object-Oriented Programming Made Easy!" It looks like, at this point, it will be about another month before it goes to press. If you want an autographed copy, click here.
I have added three new pages to MoneyMentor in the Reference Section: Diagramming Sentences & Parts of Speech, a map of Russia, and Taxes. Take a Look. And Glenn Neely of NEoWave.com has consented to allowing me to post his Market Forecast for the S&P. Take a look below.
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September 6, 2022 I gave a talk at TimingResearch. You'll hear and see how I look at Fibonacci and Elliott Wave with SunnyBands. Click to View.
Podcast: The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis
If you haven't yet had a chance, please take a look at my Podcast: "The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis". It's FREE. Listen while you Trade.
The most recent Episode is an enlightening visit with David Kosmider (timingresearch.com) who brings us free gurus talks and seminars. Get to know him personally! The podcast is not to miss. Before that were legends Jody Samuels, Harry Boxer and Peter Eliades and then Michael Filighera illustrious Elliottician. Past episodes include: Glenn Neely (Elliott Wave Expert: neowave.com), Perry Kaufman (prolific author and master trader: kaufmansignals.com), and technical Rock Star Tim Slater. Upcoming episodes include Wally Olopade of RightSide Trading, Joe Krutsinger and now Anka Metcalf. I listen to Podcasts while I trade! You don't have to just sit there and listen and do nothing else.
Don't miss these Podcasts! These have been delightful and enlightening interviews into the lives of legendary traders and their take on the markets.
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VantagePoint ai Prediction for Tomorrow
VP clearly projects the anticipated direction and magniture of tomorrow’s market. You can use any symbol; I trade the EMini S&P.
My read of this chart tells me that all three MAVs are not moving in tandem. The short-term average is turning up and the other two are moving downward. All three MAVs are below the zero-line.
Friday's close was 30,822 with a low of 30,550 and a high of 30,866. The prediction for Monday calls for a higher high and a higher low.
Glenn Neely's S&P Prediction
Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory and NEoWave technology. See where he thinks it will go next. Click on the link to visit his website. Notice that he called for this down move over 4 weeks ago, which happened and now he thinks we will continue upward until we hit the boundary line. Then we are in for some more downside action.
http://www.neowave.com
Last Time I Said:
"We are currently right at the 50-day MAV with the other two up above at 32,685 and 33,583. I'm guessing the market will go right on up to the 21-day MAV before it resumes it's downward treck." And indeed it made it to the Fib line that was in the way of the 21-day MAV and trekked down decisively after that, for another 1,000 point down day, followed by more down days to close the week down -1,329 points.
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The stats for the Dow are:
Monday was a follow-thru day to the upside and then we got hit with a huge down day and subsequent follow-thru was to the downside this week.
We are currently below all three MAVs, well below. In fact, price is right at the LOB which speaks to lower prices as they move the LOB downward. Until be have a bullish bar (blue on my charts) that breaks above the LOB we are still going down.
The DMA MidLine is Purple and the DMAs are spead wide. We are also at the 38.2% Fib line, just above it, but price went below that line on Friday.
The DMA_H is showing Purple, signifying no end to the downward slope yet.
I'm inclined to think that we will break below 30,000 this coming week.
Don't forget that the FOMC meeting is on Tuesday and Wednesday.
S&P 500
The stats for ES are:
The DMA_H was Green last week, except for the large down day on Tuesday, when it turned Purple. In fact, it went back and forth during the week, but the DMA_MidLine was mostly Flat and price did not confirm the trade.
Nevertheless, the Purple DMA is still on top which puts downward pressure on price action and might work to contain any further up move. But, the DMA is Flat, calling for congestion before it can break through the DMA to move further upward. On Who's On Top you can quickly see that Purple is still on top, speaking to bearishness, or at least some congestion as we try to break below the LOB.
The ES is now below all 3 MAVs and just kissed the LOB on Friday. It did not go as low as the Dow did. It did not make it below the LOB.
Lots still depends on the state of the Recession and what the Fed does next to Interest Rates. Many are saying that they will raise the rate by a full 100 basis points this time. Let's see how the market reacts to that.
RadarScreen of Stocks
Here again, back by popular demand, is my RadarScreen of Stocks:
Notice that BKNG is still near the top of the list, but is now second with NVR on top. NVR has had lots of moves to the UOB and back to the LOB, and is now sideways to down, so that accounts for the "tradability."
Stock Scan for those Above all 3 MAVs
Notice that, of the 3,600 stocks I scan, there are now 252 stocks above their 3 MAVs. Last week there were only 373 stocks above all three.
Stocks
KDP: Keuring Dr. Pepper
The stats for KDP are:
When I publicly recommended this stock in David Kosmider's TimingResearch "Lightning Round #1" price was down at 34.94. It is now sitting at 37.17, down -1.52 points from last week. This position is still profitable.
There are lots of Pennant formations on the chart. Those signify lots of sideways action. I trade the Pennants by waiting for a breakout to one side or the other from the red horizontal lines on the top or bottom of the Pennant. So, we are looking for a breakout now. And in fact we broke below the low of the most recent Pennant.
I, an avid coffee drinker, (I'm having a cup while I write this) believed that this non-alcholic beverage vendor would continue to thrive. Keuring is a great coffeemaker and very popular. They even have one at my hairdresser's.
Price dropped last week and the prior week with the rest of the market, penetrating the Pennant bottom and the 21-day MAV. It is still above the 200-day MAV, but now below the 21- and 50-day MAVs.
AMZN
The stats for AMZN are:
Last Close = +123.53 : the close Friday was at +123.53. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+133.27) = -9.74 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +141.63 UIB = +137.92 MidLine = +131.81 MidAngle = -22.17 LIB = +125.69 LOB = +121.98 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 130.96 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 129.28 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 140.07 - Below Color of DMA_H = Purple
AMZN, is below all 3 MAVs.
Price is now at 123.53, down almost 10 points from the previous Friday. It is now below all 3 MAVs. The LOB lies at 121.98, with price at 123.53, just above the LOB. Personally, I think there is more room on the downside.
TSLA
The stats for TSLA are:
Last Close = +303.35 : the close Friday was at +303.35. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+299.68) = +3.67 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +311.04 UIB = +302.79 MidLine = +290.01 MidAngle = 38.48 LIB = +277.23 LOB = +268.98 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 290.76 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 281.48 - Above Above/Below 200-day MAV = 293.58 - Above Color of DMA_H = Gold
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (chart below) is still at 4,600 at this juncture; she lowered her projection a few weeks ago. Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting a much higher price also. And they did a 3:1 split last week. That should be bullish. And now price has been moving once again upward on the week, along with the rest of the market.
Closing Friday at 303.35, TSLA was up nicely on the week, and ahead of the rest of the market. In fact, TSLA is now above all 3 MAVs and is touching the UIB. That leaves it to go on up to the UOB which lies at 308.46. TSLA is down 27% from its all time high, so it has a ways to go before recovery.
VantagePoint is calling for a high of 311.66 tomorrow and a low of 292.48 (an outside bar).
This is still my favorite stock. But, at this point I'm a trader, not an investor yet. TSLA is sitting on top a flat DMA and could thus encounter some congestion this coming week. Last time I said: "... another bounce coming. It will need to penetrate the MidLine first though." And indeed it penetrated the DMA and more.
Seems to me people should be flocking to TSLA with gas prices high still. Thankfully it has dropped to $5.10/gal in San Diego, California.
I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped more that 28% from its high, but is up from its low.
ARKK
The stats for ARKK are:
Last Close = +42.58 : the close Friday was at +42.58. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+44.60) = -2.02 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +48.60 UIB = +46.91 MidLine = +44.09 MidAngle = -0.57 LIB = +41.28 LOB = +39.59 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 43.27 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 45.61 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 59.54 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
Months ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that. But, currently she is below all 3 MAVs. ARKK is now up from its low of 35.10 to current price of 42.58. She's recovering, but slowly.
Who's On Top at the bottom of the chart is still Purple, but it is Light Purple, which tells me that we can expect a bit of choppiness in here. Light Purple also tells me that the DMA MidLIne is Flat.
When the DMA MidLIne is Flat I watch closely for Price to tell me the next direction. Don't jump the Flat DMA
When you think about your own trading success, take a look at what one of the most notable traders (Cathy Wood) has done.
ARKK added 44,359 shares of TDOC and 1,256,764 shares of DNA and 107,199 shares of RBLX, to her holdings as of Friday's report.
I do think, still, that she over-trades. And bottom fishing is a risky business.
MSFT
Last Close = +244.74 : the close Friday was at +244.74. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+264.46) = -19.72 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +275.22 UIB = +270.09 MidLine = +260.60 MidAngle = -63.61 LIB = +251.10 LOB = +245.97 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 264.51 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 269.04 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 286.55 - Below Color of DMA_H = Purple
MSFT (closing at 264.46 Friday) is still below all 3 MAVs. That's certainly a negative sign. The market is a wild ride these days. MSFT made progress to the upside, but got. It also had a gap up day on week ago Friday.
Price is now below all the Bands and below the 3 MAVs.
It is also riding on top of an Attractor at 242.57, which could cause price to bounce upward. More likely it will break that Attractor and engage in more downside action.
The long-term trendline now shows that MSFT is down about 30% from its all-time high. This is one of the reasons we are still in a Bear market.
Don't you think you should purchase the SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own? Sure helps Profits! Are you serious about making money trading? Then you can't do without them.
On the Weekly chart MSFT doesn't look so good. The weekly price is stiiting on the same Attractor which comes from activity much farther back in time. Only really good news will bring this one back up in a meaningful way.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Please join my Podcast (The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis). It's a lot of fun getting to know the Gurus from a personal standpoint and hear their predictions for the coming market. I listen to podcasts while I trade.
Oil
The stats for CL are:
Crude Light (CL) on a Daily chart (closing at 84.76 Friday) is down -1.58 points this past week. It keeps moving down toard my goal of 80/barrel. Since the high in March it has continued to decline, with respect to its trendline.
The DMA Histogram is showing Green all week, which speaks to higher prices, but it's still looking down to me.
Last time I said: "Fibonacci Lines suggest it might go on down to $86." And that's right where we are now. And now it's even below that.
Yet, on the monthly chart we are nearing a Flat DMA MidLine which is likely where it will go. The MidLine sits at 91.46 on the Daily chart. While the Monthly chart looks like we will go further down, the Daily chart looks like we will go upp.
Putin will decide where price is going next. If, and it looks likely, Russia begins to support Kaliningrad to the West of Lithuania and North of Poland we will get into a war with Putin defending Lithuania and Poland, members of the EU. If that happens, crude will be needed to support the war and prices will respond.
BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
The stats for BTC are:
Last Close = +19,575.00 : the close Friday was at +19,575.00. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+21,345.00) = -1,770.00 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +23,279.99 UIB = +22,214.66 MidLine = +20,559.98 MidAngle = -88.38 LIB = +18,905.30 LOB = +17,839.97 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 20462.14 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 21696.20 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 34187.30 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
BitCoin is down 50% since its all time high of 70,040 on 11/10/21. That's quite an improvement from last time when it was down 70%.
Nevertheless, the chart looks flat and sideways since June. Not dropping, not rising.
Purple is on top on the DMA although the Histogram was showing Green this past week.
I'm writing this on Sunday, and in after-hours trading it is down 165 points, at 19,425.
Time Before Last I Said: "Price is below the Flat DMA MidLine, and will probably drop to the LIB at 20,648 and possibly on down to the LOB at 19,685." It's there right now. Last week it dropped to 18,480 and recovered somewhat only to then fall farther to close Friday at 19,575.
Ethereum
The stats for Ethereum are:
Last Close = +1,435.92 : the close Friday was at +1,435.92. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,721.33) = -285.41 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +1,865.99 UIB = +1,764.77 MidLine = +1,608.82 MidAngle = -85.73 LIB = +1,452.87 LOB = +1,351.65 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1607.11 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1599.87 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 2384.81 - Below Color of DMA_H = Red
As you know, I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Ethereum) since its low in May 2021. I'm still holding ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens. Currently it is below my buy-in point. Why not sell? Because I'm in this one for the long-term and expect it to take off at some point. If it doesn't, oh well. It was an interesting experiment.
The chart of ETHUSD "sharply sideways" with notes of "falling farther." ETHUSD made a local low on Friday with price dropping below the 8/29/22 low to touch the LOB. Typically that means it has more to go on the downside.
Furthermore, the DMA (on Friday's bar) just turned Purple. That also leads to more on the downside.
Gold
The stats for Gold are:
Last Close = +1,683.50 : the close Friday was at +1,683.50. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,728.60) = -45.10 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +1,786.98 UIB = +1,765.14 MidLine = +1,730.38 MidAngle = -80.37 LIB = +1,695.62 LOB = +1,673.78 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1732.76 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1752.46 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 1853.89 - Below Color of DMA_H = Purple
Gold, Last week I said: "on the Daily chart, is languishing. Price has meandered along with a slight slope up, but not much." This week is different. It proceeded on down to the LOB and is right now between the LOB and LIB. Price is up 3 points in after hours trading. Price is at 1,683.50 from Friday and is below the Purple DMA. On the DMA_H we have Purple showing for the last 4 days. That's negative. Check out Glenn Neely's report on his website to get an idea where he thinks Gold is going. His predictions are very accurate. Spoiler alert, he thinks it is going way down. And it appears to do be doing just that.
The Midline is at 1,730.38 the LOB is at 1,673.78. The MidAngle is negative. Anything could happen with this one, but it looks to me like it could go farther down to me. Looking at the monthly chart, we have gone down for each of the last 6 months. NOTE: Glenn Neely (of NEoWave Forecasting, and our 4th Podcast) thinks Gold has a lot lower to go. It's a riveting Podcast!
Bonds
The stats for @US are:
Last Close = +131.16 : the close Friday was at +131.16. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+132.94) = -1.78 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +137.90 UIB = +136.53 MidLine = +134.18 MidAngle = -21.80 LIB = +131.83 LOB = +130.46 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 134.76 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 138.15 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 145.49 - Below Color of DMA_H = Purple
Bonds are down on the week for a loss of -1.78 points.
In after hours trading bonds are down 2/32 of a point.
On the monthly chart bonds are down even more than last time, by 47% since the all time high at the end of March.
In fact, price is currently sitting right on a strong Attractor from 2017. That could support further downside action.
Bonds go down, yields go up. In fact, the 2-yr / 10-year Treasuries yield curve is now inverted again; that is the yield on the short-term treasuries is less than the yield on the longer-term. Looks like we are expecting even more inflation and higher interest rates, probably by 0.75 - 1.00 points this next time.
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