Sunday October 9, 2022 VOLUME 6 ISSUE 33
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Samuel K. Tennis is world-renowned as "Mr. EasyLanguage" as he was the lead programmer, designer and programmer of EasyLanguage when he was working for Omega Research, which changed its name to TradeStation in 2001.
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September 6, 2022 I gave a talk at TimingResearch. You'll hear and see how I look at Fibonacci and Elliott Wave with SunnyBands. Click to View.
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VantagePoint ai Prediction for Tomorrow
VP clearly projects the anticipated direction and magniture of tomorrow’s market. You can use any symbol; I trade the EMini S&P.
My read of this chart tells me that the MAVs are once again turning bearish. While the long- and medium-term MAVs are above the zero-line they are headed down and the short-term MAV is now below the zero-line. It doesn't look good. The prediction for Monday is an outside bar, both higher and lower than Friday.
Friday's close was 29,296.79 with a low of 29,142 and a high of 29,685. The prediction for Monday calls for a a slightly higher high and about the same low, with the high at 29,762 and the low at 29,151.
Glenn Neely's S&P Prediction
Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory and NEoWave technology. See where he thinks it will go next. Click on the link to visit his website. Notice that he called for this down move followed by an up move over 5 weeks ago, which happened and now he thinks we will continue downward until we hit the boundary line.
http://www.neowave.com
Last Time I Said:
"Until we have a bullish bar (blue on my charts) that breaks above the LOB we are still going down" and "the 150% line is at 28,938 which is probably where we are going next." And indeed we have done just that. Glenn Neely's prediction shows that a sizeable up move is pending, so there's that.
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The stats for the Dow are:
The Dow is sitting below the 20% retracement from its high again, even after a gap up on Tuesday. We had three days of up action to fool us into thinking the Recession Bear Market was over.
It's anyone's guess whether we will turn around here and bounce or whether we are in a full-fledged recession that will take the market on down.
I'm sticking my neck out here but I think we have some more room on the downside. We are, by official statistics, in a Recession and by my estimation have been since the beginning of 2022. Officially if we have two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP and are now below 20% retracement we have a Recession. We are there.
In after-hours trading Dow futures (YM) are down 108 points.
We are currently below all three MAVs, well below. In fact, price is under the LOB which speaks to lower prices as they move the LOB downward. Until be have a bullish bar (blue on my charts) that breaks above the LOB preceeded by a red bar below the LOB, we are still going down.
The DMA MidLine is Purple and the DMAs are spead wide. We are below most of the Fibonacci retracements. Last week I said we would go down to 28,938 and we are now at 28,725.
The DMA_H is showing Purple, signifying no end to the downward slope yet.
S&P 500
The stats for ES are:
The DMA_H was Purple all last week. In fact, the sell signal came on 9/13/22 at a price of 3,950. Price is currently at 3,650. That's a tidy 300 points times $50 gives $15,000 potential profit. Great signal!
The Purple DMA is still on top which puts downward pressure on price action and might work to contain any further up move. On Who's On Top you can quickly see that Purple is still on top, and has been since 8/30/22, speaking to bearishness, or at least some congestion as we try to break further below the LOB which is at 3,556.
The ES is now below all 3 MAVs and has been travelling up to the DMA MidLine and back all week.
On the daily chart we have more than a week of Green on the DMA Histogram (DMA_H) signalling that we should go long on 10/3/22 which was confirmed by a blue candle and price action. The DMA was virtually Flat with Purple on top, so the rule was to take profits at the MidLine for over 100 points ($5,000) profit on the ES.
Quips & Quotes
Here are a few quotes from this past week:
RadarScreen of Stocks
Here again, back by popular demand, is my RadarScreen of Stocks:
I sorted on the DMA Direction this time. Notice that there are very few bullish stocks and lots of Red and Green bearishness. Note also how few symbols have all green in the MAV_3_Lines. Very few are bullish. The stocks that show Green "Bearish \/" mean that they were bearish moving down and are now turning up. There's some hope there.
Stock Scan for those Above all 3 MAVs
Notice that, of the 3,600 stocks I scan, there are now 196 stocks above their 3 MAVs. Last week there were only 117 stocks above all three. This is some more progress.
Stocks
KDP: Keuring Dr. Pepper
The stats for KDP are:
When I publicly recommended this stock in David Kosmider's TimingResearch "Lightning Round #1" price was down at 34.94. It is now sitting at 36.50, down 0.00 points from last week. The sell signal came on 8/19/22 on the DMA_H with the confirmation of the SunnyBands at 39.96. That's 5 points of profit per share.
There are lots of Pennant formations on the chart speaking to belabored moves. Those signify lots of sideways action. I trade the Pennants by waiting for a breakout to one side or the other from the red horizontal lines on the top or bottom of the Pennant. So, we are looking for a breakout now. And in fact we broke below the low of the most recent Pennant.
This stock is not doing as poorly as the rest of the market, and has not yet dropped below my entry point.
I, an avid coffee drinker, (I'm having a cup while I write this) believed that this non-alcholic beverage vendor would continue to thrive. Keuring is a great coffeemaker and very popular. They even have one at my hairdresser's.
Price dropped significantly last Friday, like the general market, though barely, and is now below all 3 MAVs. I'm still bullish on KDP.
AMZN
The stats for AMZN are:
Last Close = +114.56 : the close Friday was at +114.56. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+113.00) = +1.56 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +132.28 UIB = +128.43 MidLine = +121.72 MidAngle = -12.54 LIB = +115.01 LOB = +111.16 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 120.93 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 129.53 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 136.04 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
AMZN, is below all 3 MAVs.
Price is now at 114.55, up 1.56 points from the previous week. It is below all 3 MAVs. The LOB lies at 111.16, with price at 114.55, just above the LOB. We had a buy signal on AAPL from the SunnyBands on 9/28/22 at 118.01. As usual, when Purple is on top and I get a bullish signal, I only expect it to go to the MidLine, which was hit on 10/4/22 at 121.09. Three points profit ain't half bad. Personally, I think there is more room on the downside with a strong Attractor at 111.72.
TSLA
The stats for TSLA are:
Last Close = +223.07 : the close Friday was at +223.07. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+265.25) = -42.18 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +297.72 UIB = +285.24 MidLine = +263.67 MidAngle = -79.17 LIB = +242.11 LOB = +229.63 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 279.17 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 286.73 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 288.96 - Below Color of DMA_H = Purple
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (chart below) is still at 4,600 which would translate to 1,500 post split; she lowered her projection a few months ago. Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting a much higher price also. The split should have been bullish but remember that we are in a Bear market. And now price dropped significantly last week (-42 points), more than the rest of the market on news that the Twitter deal was back on again.
The SunnyBands sell signal was on 9/21/22 at 300.80. With price now at 223.07 that's more than 77 points of profit per share.
VantagePoint is calling for a high of 233.11 tomorrow and a low of 214.93.
This is still my favorite stock. But, at this point I'm a trader, not an investor yet. TSLA is well under a down-sloping DMA and could thus go on down this coming week.
Seems to me people should be flocking to TSLA with gas prices high still. Thankfully it has dropped to $5.10/gal in San Diego, California.
I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped more that 33% from its high, but is up from its low.
ARKK
The stats for ARKK are:
Last Close = +37.53 : the close Friday was at +37.53. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+37.73) = -0.20 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +45.64 UIB = +43.89 MidLine = +40.89 MidAngle = -5.85 LIB = +37.89 LOB = +36.14 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 40.58 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 43.76 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 55.24 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
Months ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that. But, currently she is below all 3 MAVs. ARKK is now up from its low of 35.10 to current price of 37.80, but is below last week's price. She's losing her upward progress and continuing on downward.
Who's On Top at the bottom of the chart is still solid Purple, but it has been Light Purple, which tells me that we can expect a bit of choppiness in here. Light Purple also tells me that the DMA MidLIne is Flat. But now it is solid Purple for the last week. I'm expecting lower prices.
When the DMA MidLine is Flat I watch closely for Price to tell me the next direction. Don't jump the Flat DMA
When you think about your own trading success, take a look at what one of the most notable traders (Cathy Wood) has done.
ARKK added another 519,001 shares of PATH and 213,114 shares of RBLX to her holdings as of Friday's report.
I do think, still, that she over-trades. And bottom fishing is a risky business.
MSFT
Last Close = +234.24 : the close Friday was at +234.24. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+232.90) = +1.34 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +261.28 UIB = +254.88 MidLine = +244.35 MidAngle = -19.29 LIB = +233.82 LOB = +227.42 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 244.54 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 263.11 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 279.84 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
MSFT (closing at 234.24 Friday) is still below all 3 MAVs. Well below! That's certainly a negative sign. The market is a wild ride these days. MSFT had a gap down day on Friday along with the rest of the market.
Price is now below all but the LOB of the SunnyBands and below the 3 MAVs.
It is also riding barely above an Attractor at 224.17, which could cause price to continue its downward movement at least to the Attractor. We can hope, but keep our eyes on the bouncing ball (_SM_CurrentPrice). There is no reason for me to be a buyer yet.
The long-term trendline now shows that MSFT is down about 33% from its all-time high. This is one of the reasons we are still in a Bear market.
Don't you think you should purchase the SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own? Sure helps Profits! Are you serious about making money trading? Then you can't do without them.
On the Weekly chart MSFT doesn't look so good. The weekly price is sitting on the same Attractor which comes from activity much farther back in time. Only really good news will bring this one back up in a meaningful way. The next Attractor to the downside sits at 186.82. Hitting this wouldn't surprise me.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Please join my Podcast (The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis). It's a lot of fun getting to know the Gurus from a personal standpoint and hear their predictions for the coming market. I listen to podcasts while I trade.
Oil
The stats for CL are:
Crude Light (CL) on a Daily chart (closing at 92.64 Friday) bounced last week and now gas at my pump is over $7/gal.
The DMA Histogram is showing Green all week, which speaks to even higher prices.
Price hit my lower target on 9/27/22 and bounced up from there.
Last week I said: "Gas at the pump here in San Diego was $7.47 on Friday, indicating something is afoot." And indeed, higher oil prices were in store.
Yet, on the monthly chart we are right at a Flat DMA MidLine which is where I said it would go last week. The MidLine sits at 85.41 on the Daily chart. Both the Monthly chart and the Daily look like we will go further up, at least to the DMA.
Putin will decide where price is going next. If, and it looks likely, Russia begins to support Kaliningrad to the West of Lithuania and North of Poland we will get into a war with Putin defending Lithuania and Poland, members of the EU. If that happens, crude will be needed to support the war and prices will respond.
BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
The stats for BTC are:
Last Close = +19,410.00 : the close Friday was at +19,410.00. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+19,425.00) = -15.00 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +22,052.03 UIB = +21,260.03 MidLine = +20,036.30 MidAngle = -82.77 LIB = +18,812.57 LOB = +18,020.57 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 19717.14 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 20953.70 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 31848.83 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
BitCoin is down 50% since its all time high of 70,040 on 11/10/21.
Nevertheless, the chart looks flat and sideways since June. Not dropping, not rising.
Purple is on top on the DMA with the Histogram showing Green this past week.
I'm writing this on Sunday, and in after-hours trading it is down 50 points, at 19,360
Time Before Last I Said: "Price is below the Flat DMA MidLine, and will probably drop to the LIB at 20,648 and possibly on down to the LOB at 19,685." It's there right now. I is a chart of "nobody's home". It looks like all the traders and investors have quit trading and BTC is just going sideways.
Ethereum
The stats for Ethereum are:
Last Close = +1,332.00 : the close Friday was at +1,332.00. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,332.17) = -0.17 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +1,546.36 UIB = +1,494.18 MidLine = +1,403.49 MidAngle = -72.33 LIB = +1,312.80 LOB = +1,260.62 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1411.09 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1573.15 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 2191.06 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
As you know, I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Ethereum) since its low in May 2021. I'm still holding ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens. Currently it is below my buy-in point. Why not sell? Because I'm in this one for the long-term and expect it to take off at some point. If it doesn't, oh well. It was an interesting experiment.
The chart of ETHUSD is down somewhat but is still out stripping BTC. It is solidly above its low yet is turning downward and is in a tight Pennant formation. Price is full of doji bars near, but not touching, the LOB. I'm thinking we have further to go on the downside.
Gold
The stats for Gold are:
Last Close = +1,709.30 : the close Friday was at +1,709.30. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,672.00) = +37.30 Purple or Gold on top? Gold UOB = +1,752.96 UIB = +1,729.52 MidLine = +1,693.96 MidAngle = 41.67 LIB = +1,658.40 LOB = +1,634.96 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1689.61 - Above Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1735.31 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 1843.89 - Below Color of DMA_H = Gold
Gold. Gold continues to move down,though now up slightly to 1,702 in the after-hours session. Gold recovered somewhat this past week as the overall market stumbled. The buy signal from the DMA_H came on 9/28/22 at 1,670. With price now at 1,702 we could have made 32 points profit.
The buy signal has been made stronger by the Gold DMA line now being on top. We passed through the DMA to the upside and now have to test it again if the long is to hold.
The Midline is at 1,694 and the LOB is at 1,635. The MidAngle is nicely positive. Anything could happen with this one, but it looks to me like it could go farther up if it tests and passes the DMA. Looking at the monthly chart, we have gone down for each of the last 7 months. NOTE: Glenn Neely (of NEoWave Forecasting, and our 4th Podcast) thinks Gold has a lot lower to go. It's a riveting Podcast!
Bonds
The stats for @US are:
Last Close = +125.53 : the close Friday was at +125.53. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+126.41) = -0.88 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +133.40 UIB = +131.59 MidLine = +128.75 MidAngle = -13.63 LIB = +125.90 LOB = +124.09 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 128.96 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 134.58 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 142.91 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
Bonds are down on the week for a loss of -0.88 points.
On the monthly chart bonds are in a tight doji formation, neither up nor down.
In fact, price has bounced off a strong Attractor from 2017. That could support further downside action and thus higher effective interest rates.
Bonds go down, yields go up. In fact, the 2-yr / 10-year Treasuries yield curve is now inverted again; that is the yield on the short-term treasuries is less than the yield on the longer-term. Looks like we are expecting even more inflation and higher interest rates, probably by another 0.75 points this next time.
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