Sunday October 16, 2022 VOLUME 6 ISSUE 34
I will be giving an ALL NEW Live Demo with LIVE TRADING on Tuesday October 18, 2022 at 10amPT. See how I trade Live with SunnyBands and DMA_H! Register here. No sales pitches.
If you haven't already, Watch the Sept 20 Live Demo Here. The LIVE DEMO was Tuesday Sept 20 at 10amPT. Learn how Sunny interprets her indicators. No sales pitches, only Education and Support. Whether you do have or do not yet have SunnyBands, PHW, or DynamicMAV, you will not want to miss this expose'.
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"You can use SunnyBands for Options on QQQ. When it goes purple I go! It's a sure bet. Price crosses above LOB sometimes, wait for a couple bars within LOB. Catch it on Friday on options expiration sell puts and it's a sure thing! I did it on TSLA too." - Aaron R.
If you Didn't Attend the "EasyLanguage Forum", but would like Access to the Videos and Slides, here's where to get them. Sam Tennis and I covered EasyLanguage from Beginners to Intermediate. And even some OOEL. It was intense and lots of fun. If you couldn't come and want the materials you may purchase them for a modest cost here: OrderForm. You won't learn EasyLanguage anywhere faster.
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Samuel K. Tennis is world-renowned as "Mr. EasyLanguage" as he was the lead programmer, designer and programmer of EasyLanguage when he was working for Omega Research, which changed its name to TradeStation in 2001.
Sunny J. Harris has been a professional trader since 1981 (through all the Bear and Bull markets) and author of "TradeStation Made Easy!" She began using TradeStation & EasyLanguage (at the time "System Writer") since 1987 and has been a TradeStation Beta Tester ever since.
Sunny and Sam have been friends for more than 30 years and are partners in writing our upcoming "EasyLanguage Object-Oriented Programming Made Easy!" It looks like, at this point, it will be about another month before it goes to press. If you want an autographed copy, click here.
Monday October 16, 2022 at 10amPT I will be talking at TimingResearch's CFN (Crowd Forecast News). You'll hear and see how I predict the markets with my SunnyBands and DynamicMovingAverage_Histogram. Click to View.
Podcast: The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis
If you haven't yet had a chance, please take a look at my Podcast: "The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis". It's FREE. Listen while you Trade.
The most recent Episode is a historical visit with Larry Williams who is the master of commodity and futures trading as well as the prolific author of 11 books. Get to know him personally! The podcast is not to miss. Before that were legends Wally Olopade, Price Headley, Jody Samuels, Harry Boxer and Peter Eliades and then Michael Filighera illustrious Elliottician. Past episodes include: Glenn Neely (Elliott Wave Expert: neowave.com), Perry Kaufman (prolific author and master trader: kaufmansignals.com), and technical Rock Star Tim Slater. Upcoming episodes include Norman Hallett, Robert Colby , Larry Pesavento, Linda Bradford Raschke and Carolyn Boroden. I listen to Podcasts while I trade! You don't have to just sit there and listen and do nothing else.
Don't miss these Podcasts! These have been delightful and enlightening interviews into the lives of legendary traders and their take on the markets.
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VantagePoint ai Prediction for Tomorrow
VP clearly projects the anticipated direction and magniture of tomorrow’s market. You can use any symbol; I trade the EMini S&P.
My read of this chart tells me that the Medium-Term MAV is below the zero-line and the other two are barely above it, with both turning downward. It doesn't bode well for the market.
Friday's close was 29,634 with a low of 29,614 and a high of 30,428. The prediction for Monday calls for a lower high and a lower low, with the high at 30,050 and the low at 29,181.
Glenn Neely's S&P Prediction
Take a look at how accurate Glenn's chart patterns have been with his NEoWave River Theory and NEoWave technology. See where he thinks it will go next. Click on the link to visit his website. Notice that he called for this down move followed by an up move over 5 weeks ago, which happened and now he thinks we will continue downward until we hit the boundary line.
http://www.neowave.com
Last Time I Said:
"I'm sticking my neck out here but I think we have some more room on the downside. We are, by official statistics, in a Recession and by my estimation have been since the beginning of 2022. Officially if we have two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP and are now below 20% retracement we have a Recession. We are there." This last week belied my prediction, but I think this next week will confirm it.
SunnyBands Implications
Dow Jones
The stats for the Dow are:
The Dow is sitting right above the 20% retracement from its high again, even after a huge up day on Thursday (+827 points), followed by a -403 point down day on Friday.
It's anyone's guess whether we will turn around here and bounce or whether we are in a full-fledged recession that will take the market on down.
In our Podcast interview Saturday with Larry Williams he forecasted that (per his cycles analysis) we are about to enter a new bull market! I haven't posted it yet, still have editing to do, but it's a great interview! Come back next week.
I'm sticking my neck out here but I think we have some more room on the downside. We are, by official statistics, in a Recession and by my estimation have been since the beginning of 2022. Officially if we have two consecutive quarters of decline in GDP and are now right at the 20% retracement we have a Recession. I think we are there.
In after-hours trading Dow futures (YM) are up 121 points.
We are currently below all three MAVs. But we are very near the 21-day MAV. If we pass thru that one we have more room on the upside. Probably up to the 50-day MAV, which lies at 31,375.
Price is right at the DMA MidLine, but it is still sloping down, not Flat. That tells me it is likely to move further down.
Negating that is a Pennant formation out of which we broke on Thursday and Friday.
The DMA_H has been showing Green (signalling Long) since 9/28/22 which resulted in a 590 point profit potential as it hit the Flat DMA MidLine.
There is a downsloping Trendline starting on 8/16/22 that stopped upward movement Thursday and Friday. If we break above it we are likely to have some more upward movement. If not...well.
S&P 500
The stats for ES are:
The DMA_H turned Green on 9/28/22 and price moved up to the Flat DMA, like the Dow. Profit potential was 210 points, or just over $10,000 per contract on the daily chart.
DMA_H is still green, but decreasing as it approaches the zero-line.
REPORTS THIS WEEK:
Quips & Quotes
Here are a few quotes from this past week:
"I made $5,772 on the first day of my trial of SunnyBands. It told me exactly where the turns were, even with the high volatility today. You are one of the very few people that allows test drives. It's nothing short of amazing!" -Aaron R.
"I want you to know that you’re truly an amazing person and how grateful we are to have you as a mentor/teacher. We Love You." - TJ N.
"Nice Bands! This morning I did a couple of quick MES buys and sells. Then I bought into an upward moving ES [signaled by the DMA_H]. Followed it to the top [SunnyBand]. Closed. Sold short at the top [SunnyBand.] Followed it to the bottom [SunnyBand]. A $4,000 account (what I had moved to the Futures account) returned about $2,000. Doesn’t get any better than that!". - Don M.
RadarScreen of Stocks
Here again, back by popular demand, is my RadarScreen of Stocks:
I sorted on the DMA Direction this time. Notice that there are very few bullish stocks and lots of Red, Purple and Green bearishness. Note also there are only 2 symbols that have all green in the MAV_3_Lines. Very few are bullish. The stocks that show Green "Bearish \/" mean that they were bearish moving down and are now turning up. There's some hope there. But lots of symbols are Purple moving down (\\).
Stock Scan for those Above all 3 MAVs
Notice that, of the 3,600 stocks I scan, there are now 241 stocks above their 3 MAVs. Last week there were 196 stocks above all three. This is some more progress.
Stocks
KDP: Keuring Dr. Pepper
The stats for KDP are:
When I publicly recommended this stock in David Kosmider's TimingResearch "Lightning Round #1" price was down at 34.94. It is now back up to 37.33. Still profitable. I'm not giving up my coffee.
There are lots of Pennant formations on the chart speaking to belabored moves. Those signify lots of sideways action. I trade the Pennants by waiting for a breakout to one side or the other from the red horizontal lines on the top or bottom of the Pennant. Now we have broken out from the most recent Pennant and are doing better than the general market.
In fact, KDP is above the 21-day MAV and while it closed below the 50-day MAV it rose above it during the day Friday. I'm still positive on this one.
I, an avid coffee drinker, (I'm having a cup while I write this) believed that this non-alcholic beverage vendor would continue to thrive. Keuring is a great coffeemaker and very popular. They even have one at my hairdresser's.
AMZN
The stats for AMZN are:
Last Close = +106.90 : the close Friday was at +106.90. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+114.56) = -7.66 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +129.66 UIB = +125.44 MidLine = +118.16 MidAngle = -43.53 LIB = +110.89 LOB = +106.67 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 116.49 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 126.96 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 134.57 - Below Color of DMA_H = Purple
AMZN is below all 3 MAVs.
Price is now at 106.60, down almost 8 points from the previous week. It is below all 3 MAVs. The LOB lies at 106.67, with price just below the LOB. We have a sell signal on AMZN from the SunnyBands on 8/12/22 at 143.55. It's done nothing but move down since then.
AMZN is below all 3 MAVs and looks like it has farther down to go. It is down 43% since it's all time high.
TSLA
The stats for TSLA are:
Last Close = +204.99 : the close Friday was at +204.99. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+223.07) = -18.08 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +269.31 UIB = +258.38 MidLine = +238.67 MidAngle = -76.80 LIB = +218.95 LOB = +208.02 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 259.21 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 278.18 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 285.47 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
Cathy Wood's 5-year projection for TSLA (chart below) is still at 4,600 which would translate to 1,500 post split; she lowered her projection a few months ago. Several other pundits I keep track of are suggesting a much higher price also. The split should have been bullish but remember that we are in a Bear market.
It's currently down 50% from it
It's currently down 50% from its all time high.
The SunnyBands sell signal was on 9/21/22 at 300.80. With price now at 204.99 that's more than 95 points of profit per share going short.
VantagePoint is calling for a high of 214.22 tomorrow and a low of 195.79.
This is still my favorite stock. But, at this point I'm a trader, not an investor yet. TSLA is well under a down-sloping DMA and could thus go on farther down this coming week.
Seems to me people should be flocking to TSLA with gas prices high still. Thankfully it has dropped to $5.45/gal in my neighborhood
I still believe we will continue to turn to carbon-neutral technologies and electric vehicles. I have not yet purchased their vehicle because I'm waiting for better batteries. I would want to get to LA and back on one charge before it is viable technology in my mind. When the batteries are better I expect this stock to really take off.
Notice that I think TSLA is still a good buy for lots of fundamental reasons (not the least of which is lower prices and a huge run-up potential.) Nevertheless, TSLA has dropped more that 50% from its high and is now at a new low.
ARKK
The stats for ARKK are:
Last Close = +33.99 : the close Friday was at +33.99. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+37.53) = -3.54 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +44.14 UIB = +42.26 MidLine = +39.01 MidAngle = -23.15 LIB = +35.76 LOB = +33.88 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 38.52 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 42.57 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 53.71 - Below Color of DMA_H = Purple
Months ago I said I thought ARKK price would tick on down to the LOB and possibly beyond. It did just that. But, currently she is below all 3 MAVs. ARKK is now under its recent lows to current price of 33.99.. She's continuing on downward. This past week ARKK was down another 3.5 points.
Who's On Top at the bottom of the chart is still solid Purple, but it has been Light Purple, which tells me that we can expect a bit of choppiness in here. Light Purple also tells me that the DMA MidLIne is Flat. But now it is solid Purple for the last week. I'm still expecting lower prices.
When the DMA MidLine is Flat I watch closely for Price to tell me the next direction. Don't jump the Flat DMA
When you think about your own trading success, take a look at what one of the most notable traders (Cathy Wood) has done.
I do think, still, that she over-trades. And bottom fishing is a risky business.
MSFT
Last Close = +228.56 : the close Friday was at +228.56. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+234.24) = -5.68 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +256.80 UIB = +249.98 MidLine = +238.89 MidAngle = -22.78 LIB = +227.81 LOB = +220.99 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 238.00 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 257.98 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 277.09 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
MSFT (closing at 228.56 Friday) is still below all 3 MAVs. But it is now approaching the 21-day MAV. The DMA MidLine (at 238.89) is relatively Flat which tells me it could head for that level and be turned back. But that's a potential profit of 10 points anyway.
Price is now above the Lower Bands and below the 3 MAVs.
It is also riding barely above an Attractor at 224.17, which could cause price to continue its downward movement at least to the Attractor. We can hope, but keep our eyes on the bouncing ball (_SM_CurrentPrice). There is no reason for me to be a buyer yet.
The long-term trendline now shows that MSFT is down about 35% from its all-time high. This is one of the reasons we are still in a Bear market.
The NASDAQ (where the tech stocks live) is down 36% since January. Now that's a Bear Market to me. Reminds me of 2000-2002 when it was down -78%.
Don't you think you should purchase the SunnyBands and DMA_H for your own? Sure helps Profits! Are you serious about making money trading? You're leaving money on the table if you aren't trading with SunnyBands.
On the Weekly chart MSFT doesn't look so good either. The weekly price is sitting on the same Attractor which comes from activity much farther back in time. Only really good news will bring this one back up in a meaningful way. The next Attractor to the downside sits at 186.82. Hitting this wouldn't surprise me.
Buy the DMA_H and SunnyBands for yourself. They are life savers. I totally rely on them for my own trading. And I want you to have the success you deserve! You can have these indicators for yourself. They are a great trading tool! And now I have a new indicator that plots a series of colored dots letting you see at a glance Who's On Top, Purple or Gold. Here's what it looks like. It is the series of Purple and Gold dots at the bottom of the chart.
Please join my Podcast (The Sunny Harris Show! with Sam Tennis). It's a lot of fun getting to know the Gurus from a personal standpoint and hear their predictions for the coming market. I listen to podcasts while I trade.
Oil
The stats for CL are:
Crude Light (CL) on a Daily chart (closing at 85.61 Friday) dropped again last week and now gas at my pump is just $5.45/gal.
The DMA Histogram was showing Green all week turned Purple on Friday and is still Purple in after hours trading, where it is up 0.56.
Price hit my lower target of $80 on 9/27/22 and bounced up from there.
On the monthly chart we bounced of a Flat DMA MidLine which is where I said it would go last week. The MidLine sits at 76.17 on the Daily chart. Both the Monthly chart and the Daily look like we will go further up, at least to the UIB, which on the Daily lies at 91ish.
Putin will decide where price is going next. If, and it looks likely, Russia begins to support Kaliningrad to the West of Lithuania and North of Poland we will get into a war with Putin defending Lithuania and Poland, members of the EU. If that happens, crude will be needed to support the war and prices will respond.
BitCoin, Etherium, Gold, Bonds
BitCoin
The stats for BTC are:
Last Close = +19,110.00 : the close Friday was at +19,110.00. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+19,410.00) = -300.00 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +21,481.78 UIB = +20,857.78 MidLine = +19,874.01 MidAngle = -86.57 LIB = +18,890.25 LOB = +18,266.25 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 19341.90 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 20555.70 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 31091.62 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
BitCoin is down 73% since its all time high of 70,040 on 11/10/21. In after hours trading it is up 90 points this evening at 19,190.
Nevertheless, the chart looks flat and sideways since June. Not dropping, not rising.
Purple is on top on the DMA with the Histogram showing alternating Green and Purple this past week.
Time Before Last I Said: "Price is below the Flat DMA MidLine, and will probably drop to the LIB at 20,648 and possibly on down to the LOB at 19,685." It's there right now. It is a chart of "nobody's home". It looks like all the traders and investors have quit trading and BTC is just going sideways.
Ethereum
The stats for Ethereum are:
Last Close = +1,302.26 : the close Friday was at +1,302.26. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,332.00) = -29.74 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +1,486.82 UIB = +1,443.63 MidLine = +1,368.63 MidAngle = -79.47 LIB = +1,293.64 LOB = +1,250.45 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1331.20 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1539.13 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 2134.65 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
As you know, I haven't held any BitCoin. Instead, I have had ETHUSD (Ethereum) since its low in May 2021. I'm still holding ETHUSD and intend to hold it for years just to see what happens. Currently it is below my buy-in point. Why not sell? Because I'm in this one for the long-term and expect it to take off at some point. If it doesn't, oh well. It was an interesting experiment.
The chart of ETHUSD is down somewhat but is still out stripping BTC. It is solidly above its low yet is turning downward and is in a tight Pennant formation. Price is full of doji bars near, but not touching, the LOB. I'm thinking we have further to go on the downside.
Gold
The stats for Gold are:
Last Close = +1,648.90 : the close Friday was at +1,648.90. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+1,709.30) = -60.40 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +1,746.77 UIB = +1,723.69 MidLine = +1,688.78 MidAngle = -62.27 LIB = +1,653.86 LOB = +1,630.78 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 1679.69 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 1723.75 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 1839.74 - Below Color of DMA_H = Purple
Gold. Gold continues to move down and is now though now up slightly to 1,702 in the after-hours session. Gold continued to fall this past week as predicted by Glenn Neely.
The DMA has just turned Purple, with the crossover today.
Price is under the DMA MidLine and also below the LIB. I'm expecting it to move to the LOB this next week.
The LOB is at 1,630.78. The MidAngle is negative rather steeply. Anything could happen with this one, but it looks to me like it could go farther down. Looking at the monthly chart, we have gone down for each of the last 7 months. NOTE: Glenn Neely (of NEoWave Forecasting, and our 4th Podcast) thinks Gold has a lot lower to go. It's a riveting Podcast!
Bonds
The stats for @US are:
Last Close = +125.53 : the close Friday was at +125.53. Change from last Sunday (+/-) (+126.41) = -0.88 Purple or Gold on top? Purple UOB = +133.40 UIB = +131.59 MidLine = +128.75 MidAngle = -13.63 LIB = +125.90 LOB = +124.09 Above/Below 21-day MAV = 128.96 - Below Above/Below 50-day MAV = 134.58 - Below Above/Below 200-day MAV = 142.91 - Below Color of DMA_H = Green
Bonds are down on the week for a loss of -0.88 points.
On the monthly chart bonds are in a clear downward progression.
In fact, price is almost to the 30% down retracement. That could support further downside action and thus higher effective interest rates.
Bonds go down, yields go up. In fact, the 2-yr / 10-year Treasuries yield curve is now inverted again; that is the yield on the short-term treasuries is less than the yield on the longer-term. Looks like we are expecting even more inflation and higher interest rates, probably by another 0.75 points this next time.
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